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Börsipäev 6.juuni

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  • Gapping Up

    ACXM +13% (confirms receipt of ValueAct Capital letter for acquisition), AMTD +3% (ET boosts bid for the co), ELOS +5% (co and Thermage resolve patent litigation), TRDO +4.3% (Wm Blair upgrade), NAPS +3.5%, CHRT +3.4% (announces a joint development program with NVLS), BOBJ +2.9% (announces availability of XI built for operational BI), EBAY +2.1% (positive Barron's article)... Recent momentum names are on the move: BDCO +17%, IIJI +4.1%, ABLE +2.7%, GEOI +2%, SOSA +4%... Under $3: PURW +16%, CNXT +11% (analog modem shipments surpass 750 mln).

    Gapping Down

    TEVA -5.3% (gudies lower on court decision preventing sales of its generic version of extended release antibiotic Biaxin), ATYT -4% (guides lower; down in sympathy: NVDA -2%), SNDK -3.3% (Merrill downgrade), MU -3.5% (Merrill downgrade), CRXL -2.6%, BNL -2%, WM -1.6% (to buy Providian).
  • Rev Shark:

    The Market's Pulling Back, Not Plunging
    6/6/05 8:13 AM ET

    "Give them pleasure -- the same pleasure they have when they wake up from a nightmare."

    -- Alfred Hitchcock

    A highly anticipated pullback finally started on Friday. The selling wasn't particularly heavy but it was steady and we closed out the day near the lows. It was a good start, but the market has moved so far so fast it doesn't really do much to correct the overbought conditions that have developed. We need further consolidation to set up the market for future upside.

    The key to a good pullback at this point is that it appears to be developing into something much worse. Market participants need to feel some actual fear and to harbor some doubts about whether the market is just undergoing a correction. The best corrections are those that look like they will be something much worse. When it turns out that it really is nothing more than some healthy profit-taking, the relief generates new buying and sends the market up to challenge recent highs.

    One of the hallmarks of an effective pullback is that the dip buyers who were so anxious to buy when the market was heading straight up suddenly begin to harbor some doubts when we finally do pull back. The idea of buying at lower prices that seemed so appealing when we were flying high now feels particularly dangerous as the sellers turn a bit more aggressive.

    Like many other bulls I am rooting for a good bout of profit taking. It has become increasingly difficult to find new buys recently as more and more stocks become extended. A correction would eventually give us some much better entry points into our favorite stocks.

    Keep in mind that the chances that the market rolls over and goes straight down from here are very low. When a market has been as strong as this one there generally is a large supply of buyers on the sidelines. The dip buyers who never got a dip, the underperforming funds that never fully joined the party and the badly abused bears who will be happy to cover shorts on a slight pullback are all lurking about and are unlikely to let the market go straight down.

    In the early going the market is looking like I feel: sleepy and in need of another cup of coffee. There isn't much major market moving news. A bank merger and Apple (APPL:Nasdaq) hooking up with Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) look to be the main items of interest. Overseas markets were mixed. Oil and gold are trading up.

    No positions in stocks mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:


  • James J. Cramer @ EYET:

    Yeah, even I want to shoot against Eyetech (EYET). How can you not want to? I mean, think about it; as of the last go-round of 13Fs, in which funds disclose their holdings, Amerindo had 2.23 million shares of this beleaguered concern. How can you not bet that Amerindo will toss out those shares after what we've seen now? Given that Genentech (DNA) has a superior drug, given that there's no earnings momentum, you would want to sell the stock anyway.

    The hysterical thing here is that the insiders don't seem to be taking any chances, either. You have the CEO, CFO and COO all bailing since the bad news about the superior drug from Genentech's broken.

    What a nightmare!

    Few trades are as money-in-the-bank as shooting against a fund that has to liquidate. When you have the manager of the fund waiting to make bail, it's unlikely that he is maneuvering and letting any Eyetech go. So the chances that it will trade as a block are even greater than normal.

    The only thing that could go wrong would be if someone from Eyetech helped out Amerindo by paying $10 to buy the whole stake. That would shut out the hedge funds that are shooting against Eyetech and make for some real pain.

    But I believe that if that were about to happen, the insiders who are selling either would not be selling or would be too stupid to come up with such an intelligent idea as helping Amerindo out.

    All in all, that makes Eyetech the fish-in-a-barrel trade of the year for those who put it on last week.

    Is it too late? At $11.00, there's more risk. I don't know if the trade still should be done now because the stock is sinking so fast. But I know that I still would be doing it if I were at my old hedge fund because, oh heck, what's the point of being a hedge fund manager if you don't avail yourself of this kind of opportunity?

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