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  • Rev Shark:

    Pricey Crude Oil Will Put This Market to the Test
    6/20/05 8:05 AM ET

    "The block of granite which was an obstacle in the pathway of the weak becomes a stepping-stone in the pathway of the strong."

    -- Thomas Carlyle

    Last week the market continued its steady march higher, but a major obstacle in the form of higher crude oil prices is lurking. Crude oil is now hitting an all-time high close to $60 a barrel.

    There are a lot of folks who will tell you that such a rise is unjustified. They claim that we are awash in oil and that there really are no supply problems. Maybe so, but that is irrelevant for our purposes. Whether oil prices are manipulated and simply the product of speculation or a true reflection of supply and demand doesn't much matter. The fact is that the prices are up, and sooner or later this will have an economic impact.

    If the market wants to correct, oil prices are a very convenient excuse, and this is why we have to keep an eye on them. The market did a very impressive job of shrugging off that issue last week. If the market can rally in the face of ramping crude oil, it is obvious that we have some very healthy buying. The overcoming of that substantial obstacle says a lot about the quality of this rally.

    However, crude oil as an obstacle is not going away, and the longer it persists at high prices, the more likely the market will eventually use it as an excuse to correct or consolidate recent gains. The fact that the market is somewhat extended and faces major overhead resistance makes it even more likely that oil will be eventually be used as the reason for market participants to take profits.

    So we have a tricky market to contend with. On one hand we have very strong buying momentum with a lot of healthy action in various sectors, but on the other hand we have a tough obstacle in the form of crude oil that can easily turn into a reason for aggressive selling if we begin to falter. So far, market participants have shrugged off that issue, but they won't do so indefinitely.

    We have a slow start to the week on tap. Overseas markets were mostly lower, and oil and gold are trading up. Leading economic indicators are due to be reported at 10 a.m. EDT today; this may have some market impact, but overall, the economic calendar is very quiet this week.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    CVC +24% (Dolan family proposes to take company private), TKTX +7.4% (positive phase 3 results; SHPGY +6.4% up in sympathy as it is acquiring TKTX), BCRX +9.5% (granted "fast track" status to develop Fodosine), IPG +3.2% (profiled in Barron's), STEM +2.4% (stem cell breakthrough in egg study - BBC), IMCL +2.2% (to file sBLA for use of Erbitux in head & neck cancer in Q3), AMLN +2%, CL +1.7% (Pru upgrade)... Recent momentum names are higher: MPET +9.4%, NYER +9%... Under $3: FUEL +7%, SYNC +6.3% (announces hosted wireless email service).

    Gapping Down

    EBAY -3% (Google rumored to be working on PayPal-like service), OLGR -13% (profit taking after 70% move on Friday for no apparent reason; Reuters quotes C.E.O. blaming "day-trader frenzy"), ATRS -8% (JP Morgan downgrade), LPMA -7.2%, AIRN -6% (consummates acquisition of Arelnet), OVTI -5.8% (Jefferies downgrade), CVTX -5.4% (discusses Aceon drug application), NICE -4%, IGLD -3%, AUDC -2.3% (started with a Buy at Smith Barney; tgt $14.50), GDT -2.2% (defibrillators will be recalled by FDA - WSJ), TEVA -2.2%, GOOG -1.6%.
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