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Börsipäev 8. juuli - Londoni järelkaja

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  • Londoni neljapäevane terroriakt tuletas globaalset ebakindlust taas meelde ja mõjus üsna tugevalt ka turgudele. Esimene reaktsioon oli järsk liikumine alla, kuid päeva jooksul tekkis ostuhuvi ja turg jõudis plussi.

    Ühest küljest on selline ostuhuvi väga positiivne, halbade uudiste peale kosumine näitab turu tugevust. Kuid üks põhjus tugevuse taga oli ilmselt ka 9/11 sündmuste võrdlus, siis pööras turg peale esimest järsku langust samuti suuna ülespoole. Seega palju spekulatiivset ostuhuvi, seega ma arvan, et nädala-paari jooksul tuleb paremaid kohti ostmiseks. Suvise vaikelu lõpetas see sündmus turul küll.

     

  • Praegu, kui on tulemuste hooaeg, siis antud olukord võib erineda 9/11.
  • UBS on Londoni rünnakute osas üsna neutraalselt meelestatud. Analüüs ise siin.

  • Kas on juba välja tilkunud uuringuid missugused organisatsioonid või isikud on vahetult enne paukke raha koju kutsunud ja siis uuesti paugutamise järel positsioonid võtnud.
  • Rev shark:

    Looking Back at the Bounce, and Ahead to Jobs
    7/8/05 8:25 AM ET

    The brave man is not he who feels no fear,
    For that were stupid and irrational;
    But he, whose noble soul its fears subdues,
    And bravely dares the danger nature shrinks from.

    -- Joanna Baillie

    The market stumbled only briefly yesterday in response to an ugly terrorist attack in London. We hit the lows at the open and moved steadily upward all day.

    The question we need to contemplate is, "Why no fear?" Why didn't the market care about this event? Did it not have some negative financial impact on the world economies?

    Maybe not; maybe this sort of attack galvanizes the resolve of the rest of the world to deal more effectively with it. Perhaps it takes a loss of this sort to push us to deal more effectively with the issue, and that is ultimately a positive for the market.

    That is one theory, but it is probably simpler than that. The market has always recovered fairly quickly from terrorist attacks and fears. Even after 9/11, the market came back rather quickly. Market participants learn their lessons quickly, and the first thought of many yesterday was "buy the weakness." A quick market recovery was highly anticipated, and the masses made it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Was there anyone out there who did not expect some sort of bounce?

    The crowd created a quick bounce, which turned into some fairly powerful upside momentum, which helped squeeze shorts and produced a strong finish. A positive day following a terrorist attack certainly wasn't logical, but buying the opening weakness sure was. And since so many people recognized that buying the open was the play, they created the conditions for a continuous move higher all day.

    I underestimated how far this would go yesterday, but I continue to feel it will falter fairly fast and am prepared to hit the short side very hard at some point. However, we have the upcoming jobs report, and that is going to make things very tricky.

    Expectations are for a very strong gain of around 200,000 jobs for June. Unemployment is predicted to hold at 5.1%, and hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2%. Those are solid numbers, and if we hit them, that will signal that the economy is in pretty good shape, but is that a positive for the market?

    The biggest problem with a strong economy is that it keeps the Fed in play. A strong economy keeps inflation fears intact, and that means the Fed is going to keep raising interest rates to fight it. However, in the past, the market has reacted favorably to strong economic numbers, despite the fact that they may be inflationary, which makes it very difficult to predict the reaction.

    I'm not sure if the market is going to embrace good numbers as a positive because the economy is strong or worry about them because of the inflation issue. We will find out in a few minutes. I'm still inclined to short strength and will be looking for entry points.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • 146 000 töökohta siis lisatud. Töötusemäär üllatavalt 5% tasemel
  • WLDA $13, INNO eelturul $2.34 +5%
  • Energy, ausõna, me oskame ise ka aktsiate hindu vaadata.
  • Gapping Up

    WPTE +45% (poker icon Doyle Bronson launches $700 mln cash bid for co-- NY Post; LACOE +21% is a majority owner; ISWI +15% up in sympathy), AA +4% (reports Q2), CHCI +8% (reports 98% growth in Q2 new order revenue), ACN +7% (reports MayQ, beats by $0.08), IIJI +6.8%, KYPH +6.7% (Morgan Stanley initiates with an Overweight), CTTY +6% (extends yesterday's 11% move), IPII +5.6%, HGSI +4.7% (BofA initiates with $27 tgt), CAMP +4.3% (beats by a penny; Roth upgrade), QLTI +3.6% (gets FDA approval for acne gel), IMCL +2.4% (BofA initiates with $54 tgt)... Under $3: PDYN +56% (to be acquired by ZHNE), VSR +31%, TMTA +18% (expects positive operating cash flow for Q2), AATK +11%, GIGM +7%.

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: ATRS -13% (also Deutsche downgrade), BORL -10% (also Piper downgrade), SEBL -1.5%... Other News: ZHNE -18% (to acquire PDYN), CHKP -2.3% (Piper downgrade), XIDE -6.6% (target of preliminary SEC inquiry), IPIX -4.3%, TUES -2.1% (announces 3.2 mln share secondary offering).
  • "But with the Bank of England already showing an inclination toward easier monetary policy, the attacks could add to the momentum of lower rates in Britain to boost slowing growth, some analysts said. Analysts at independent research firm BCA based in Montreal said in a note to clients that "we expected the Bank of England to ease later this year, and the attacks may expedite a rate cut."

    --- The Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2005
  • NASDAQ korra ka üle 2100 - 2100,14.

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