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Börsipäev 25. juuli

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  • Once again, we enter the trading week with most of the major indices looking extended near term, with most hedge funds not positioned for a further rally, with a whole host of earnings on tap, with valuations reasonable (but not inexpensive or overly stretched), with oil near $60, with corporate bond spreads near historic lows, with a vigilante Fed keeping an eye on things.

    For the last couple of months, I could have started this diary off with the above paragraph. Talk about "steady as she goes" -- things have been steady. The incredibly shrinking VIX, which in some ways measures volatility, has been a hot topic of discussion among the Wall Street intelligentsia. In a debate with others on the site, I postulated recently that the collapse of the VIX probably had a lot to do with the rise of technology. But perhaps an even bigger reason for the decline of volatility is because the VIX is reflecting how steady the forces around the market (and the market itself) have been.

    Since the economy emerged from the brief recession in 2003, so much has been so steady. GDP's been steadily growing, as have corporate profits. Sure, things have decelerated a bit overall (with occasional re-accelerations, of course), but the growth overall has been steady and regular. Valuations have been bouncing slightly above the historical average since 2003, with the S&P 500 trading with a mid-teens multiple to earnings. The Fed's not thrown any surprises, and seems to have completely forsaken the trick plays in the back of its playbook. And although the GM-debt-to-junk debacle had the potential to roil the corporate bond market a few weeks ago, the corporate bond market has smoothly ridden out the speed bumps that markets always encounter, and it remains extremely healthy and open to new debt issuance.

    So, much continues to go right for this economy and for this market. And all of those positive dynamics are sure to affect volatility and the VIX. In a strange way, it's the remarkable steadiness that makes participants feel so unstable. In a contrarian way, of course, perhaps this is as good as it can get, and the VIX is just waiting for something to finally roil the steadiness before it explodes higher.

    Futures are looking slightly down this morning. China's silly Yuan movements (or lack thereof) and the bidding around Unocal seem to be dominating the market discussion -- yet again. I'd note that the very fact that such minutiae are dominating discussions around the Street is also indicative of how steady and healthy things are right now.

  • Gapping Up

    MYG +6.2% (to consider new Whirlpool bid - WSJ), MOT +4% (positive Barron's article), IVX +11% (to be acquired by TEVA), RNAI +35% (clinical data results to be published), GIGA +4% (recent momentum), NGPS +3.4%, MLNM +2.7% (signs marketing deal with SGP)... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ASH +6%, DWCH +32%, SLAB +3.6%, PPC +3%... Security stocks extend advance following bombings in London: SYNX +41%, GEPT +10%, MACE +6%, TBUS +4%, IPIX +4%, IDNX +2.6%... Under $3: MCEL +18% (selected to receive funding to advance volume manufacturing of portable fuel cartridges), AATK +12%, CIPH +11% (signs deal with Quest), ANAD +6% (reports Q2).

    Gapping Down

    INCY -9% (announces Phase IIb trial results for Reverset), XRX -6.3% (misses by $0.03; guides below consensus), SONE -4% (guides Q2 EPS in line, guides revs below consensus, names new C.E.O.), NBIX -3.7% (Takeda's insomnia drug Rozerem gets FDA approval), IFX -2.2% (announces personnel changes), SAP -1.5% (Morgan Stanley downgrade), NOK -1.1%.
  • Ehk oskab keegi põhjendada, miks volatiivsusindeks VIX on kiiresti üles liikunud, hetkel +127%, vahepeal oli suisa +230%. Ilmselt programmi viperus?
  • Süsteemis lühiajaline viga, nüüd peaks olema korras.
  • Guy Lerner
    Trading Signal
    7/25/2005 10:07 AM EDT

    One of my best and most aggressive timing models for the Nasdaq gave another buy signal with Friday's close. This system is multifaceted, meaning there could be multiple points of entry. I wanted to replicate the current market environment as much as possible, so I backed out some of the other triggers and looked at only what caused this system to trigger.
    Essentially this is buying into the horns of the bull market when things look their best, and when the market is most overbought! This is what the timing model replicates, at least from a price perspective.

    This stripped-down version of my trading model generated only 23 trades in 32 years; this compares to 99 trades with the full version.

    Seventy-four percent of these trades were profitable and generated 1701 Nasdaq points. You were only in the market 10% of the time! One thousand of these points came during the blow-off top from 1999 to 2000, which, from a trading perspective, is not necessarily so good because you don't want all your profits from one trade. Nonetheless, if we look at the select profit factor, which is a measure of gross profit divided by gross loss that excludes outlier trades like the one in 1999 and 2000, it is still a very healthy 3:1. This strategy had a maximum peak to trough drawdown of 8%, and it made money at a compounded rate of 6.5%. This is compared to buy and hold, which made money at 8.5% rate, and has a maximum drawdown of 77%. When the model was bullish, the Nasdaq market appreciated at an annualized rate of 75%. This is very high!

    Now, the strategy doesn't beat buy and hold for the simple reason it isn't in the market enough. But that isn't the point of this exercise. The point is that this is a bullish development.

    Let's look at this from another angle. Of the 23 trades, 22 occurred at a time when the market was moderately overbought.

    Pushing the envelope even further, of the 23 trades, 10 signals occurred at a time when the market was extremely and statistically (as in beyond 2 standard deviations) overbought. Yet the market continued higher.

    My concern -- like many on this site -- is that, well, there is no concern. Myself and others have pointed out many divergences between breadth, volume and price. At some point, these will matter. They just don't matter now. And statements like this are always reason for caution!

    long QQQQ
  • Drugstore.com (DSCM) huvilistele lisasime LHV Pro alla ka ühe huvitava kauplemisidee, mis toetab meie pikaajalist nägemust.
  • USA madratsitootja Select Comfort Corp.´i (SCSS) konkurent Tempur Pedic International Inc. (TPX) teatas 22.juulil II kvartali tulemused, mis olid alla ootusi, ning uute madalahinnaliste voodite
    tootmissetulekust, mis on tingitud tihenevast konkurentsist. TPX´i aktsia avanes tulemuste peale
     -18.3%, SCSS -0.6%. S&P analüütikute arvates reageeris turg sellele üle.

    Koosliikumist võib põhjendada tiheneva konkurentsiga madratsite ja voodite turul,
    mis sunnib ettevõtteid hindasid alandama ja ka väiksemaid kasumeid võtma.



    Sten Pisang
  • LHV Pro idee NFLX taas hoos ... EPS 0.14 vs 0.02 ootus
  • SYNX - issand-ma-ei-või-kui-ilus-päeva-sisene-käik. Õppimiseks ainest küllaga.
    Kas keegi mõne põhjuse ka on tuvastanud viimaste päevade käitumise kohta nimetatuid aktsiale?
  • SYNX on terrorismi-play. Runs and fades as hypes usually do.
  • Strädeldajatele:
    16:40 APCC prelim $0.21 vs $0.20 Reuters consensus; revs $480.6 mln vs $440.43 mln Reuters consensus
  • APCC conference call algab kell 00.00, kuid prognoose ilmselt ei avaldata. Seega lõplik seis selgub homme.
  • Kui eelmised kaks kauplemispäeva oli traderite radaril SYNX, siis täna paistab selleks kujunevat IMX. IMX on teinud juba kena ralli, kuid vaatamata sellele eelturul üleval 13,5%.

    Põhjus:
    Implant Sciences receives order for 101 handheld explosive detection systems (IMX) 6.84 : IMX announces receipt of a multi-million dollar purchase order from Beijing Ritchie's Time, the Company's distributor in China, to deliver 101 Quantum Sniffer handheld explosives detection units. Co says its understanding is that the Quantum Sniffer will be sold to the Chinese Railway Administration for use in a large railway security project in China. Co expects equipment to be delivered in the next quarter. The terms of the purchase order provide for a 30% advance cash payment, which has been received by IMX.

    Security playd rokivad :)
  • IMX lendab päris hästi, 46% üleval. Samas ise müüsin juba ära.

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