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Börsipäev 27. juuli

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  • Enne börsipäeva algust pikemat lugemist - Morgan Stanley globaalne analüüs.

    P.S. INSP püsib praegu üsna üllatavalt tugevana ($24 juures), vaatamata päris pikale reale daungreididele. Päeva algus saab olema huvitav, ise usun madalamaid tasemeid.

  • Big-Money Players Keep the Market Moving
    7/27/2005 8:03 AM EDT

    Institutional demand for stocks has not waned in recent weeks despite interest rate hikes, acts of terrorism, currency revaluations and surging oil prices. Big-money investors -- the mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds and others -- drive the market. When they're in a buying mood, like they have been since April, stocks advance on increased volume.

    That's what happened yesterday, with both the S&P and Nasdaq gaining ground on higher trade. As a result of the incessant demand from institutional investors, the S&P and Nasdaq now find themselves near four-year highs.

    Stock investors aren't alone. Corporate bond managers have also been in a risk-taking mood, as junk bond spreads are now at their tightest level in months and have already recouped more than half of the move that developed after they began widening in March following GM's dismal earnings outlook. This means corporate bond investors are requiring less yield to bear the greater risk of high-yield bonds relative to risk-free government bonds.

    So long as stocks remain cheap relative to corporate bonds, the debt-funded share buyback and M&A activity that has supported stocks is likely to continue. That, combined with institutional investors' seemingly insatiable appetite for stocks, suggests the move that began in April is for real. Of course, there could be some consolidation, but that would be welcome after four straight up weeks.

    The next thing I look at, after market direction, is which groups are providing leadership. Right now, that's retail, oil, real estate and health care, with a recent emergence in the semis. Some high-volume movers yesterday came from the biotech area (LIFC, GENZ), health care IT (MDRX, QSII) and real-estate related (BMHC, RYL) stocks.

    There's lots of news coming today. On the economic front, this morning we've got durable goods (expections, 1.0%) and new-home sales (expectations, 1300K); Fed Governor Ed Gramlich will be speaking on the importance of home ownership today, for whatever that's worth.

    Earnings will continue to trickle in -- make that flood in. COP, ENR are slated to report this morning (among many others), BA just beat, and a fortune of firms will be giving us their second-quarter report card after today's close. Oil will be active today when the Energy Department releases its inventory figures at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Estimates are -2.75 mm for crude, -700K for gasoline, and 2 mm for distillates.

    Long COP

  • trader: i tell you i find myself trading sooooo much bigger in light of the lack of volatility. I am either going to have a huge up day soon or a blow up. I think we can guess how that ussually plays out

    josucco: that is called compression and results in large moves in stocks from a triangular formation. as vol goes down, traders take on bigger positions in order to try to make same money. this causes vol to go down even more...and so traders take even bigger positions. this cycle causes the triangular formation as traders squeeze the stock into a small range. thus at its apex, traders are way outsized in risk. when something causes the stock to move, it moves much more than normal as traders go to cover because their risk is so big.

    josucco: look at amgn

    josucco: that is what happened

    josucco: it is like selling options too cheaply

    josucco: i would highly advise not doing this cause everyone else is

    josucco: i am taking the other side by buying cheap options.

    trader: i know. i caught myself, saw what i was doing. i will just bide my time
  • Milliselt internetilehelt järgmine info?
    "Following Lance Armstrong's amazing seventh straight Tour de France victory on Sunday, there's a Lancefest going on here in Texas. In fact, Lance Armstrong grew up in Plano, a Dallas suburb, not too far from where I live, and his interest in cycling started at a bike shop 10 miles from my house."

    Ei, see ei ole mõnelt spordiuudiste saidilt vaid RealMoney Trading Diary praegusel hetkel :)))
  • Muuseas, üks huvitav mõte INSP kohta - P/E on sama mis eile.

    2005 EPSi prognoos oli eile enne tulemusi $1.80-1.90, INSP langetas peale börsi EPSi prognoosi $1.15-1.25 peale. Ehk 35%. Aktsia on praegu -30% kukkunud uudise peale, eile järelturul oli vahepeal ka täpselt -35%. Seega mõlemad on langenud samas suurusjärgus ja P/E on praktiliselt täpselt sama.
  • Winland Electronics (WEX), kelle suurimaks kliendiks (58% käibest) on Select Comfort (SCSS) ei ole viimase tulemuste mõjul kaasa rallinud.

    WEX'lt üleeile tugevad tulemused ja kolmedollari aktsiast sai korraks isegi viiedollari aktsia - seega takistab gravitatsioon hetkel kõrgemale liikumast.
  • whats up with ALTI? Kas keegi teab?

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