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Börsipäev 8. september

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  • Rev Shark:

    Getting Contrary With Contrarian Thinking

    "Don't pay any attention to the critics -- don't even ignore them."

    -- Samuel Goldwyn

    Investors can always find very good reasons to be critical of the market. No matter how well the market is acting, there are always astute, compelling and extremely logical arguments to be found for why the future is extremely bleak.

    The only difference now is that the group of critics seems to be particularly large and very vocal. That might be due to the obviousness of the current obstacles -- hurricanes and oil prices are in the headlines and on television constantly so it is hard not to think that it will have some effect on the market.

    But the fact is that the bad news hasn't mattered. In fact, many market observers have taken the position that the high level of caution and downright pessimism is actually a positive because it means that investors are poorly positioned for a strong market.

    So do we ignore the critics and in fact take comfort in the fact that there are so many that are so insistent that we are doomed? No. Despite what you may think because of the focus on contrarian thinking, the majority is right far more often than they are wrong -- and for far longer. It is only at the extremes, when everyone thinks and has acted the same way, that contrary strategy really works.

    The dilemma of the market now is that it is acting well technically despite all of the good reasons why it shouldn't. We have to walk a thin line between reaping the long-side profits that are available but being ready to shift into a defensive mood if all of those critics finally start to matter.

    Today is going to be a good test for the market: We have weakness in homebuilders, crude oil perking up, Sears (SHLD:Nasdaq) has a poor earnings report, overseas markets are weak, gold is up and the major indices are overbought.

    The bulls have their work cut out for them and if they can close strong once again after a weak open they will have control of this market. I'm doubtful they can do it and am poised to shift into full defensive mood very quickly. I try not to be anticipatory but am thinking very much about defense right now.

  • think positive
    and don't fight the trend

    MOTT
  • Kas oleks reaalne selline tsenaarium?

    SNRR avanes 12,80 Keegi soovis juurde osta ja müüs osa väikeste juppidena madalalt kuni 12,50`ni maha siis kui turg oli alles värske ja kahtlev.
    Müügi pool tuli järele ja hakkas vaevaliselt tõusma.
    Ja nüüd ostis suurte pakkidena tagasi.
    Nüüdseks on uuest oma tugevuse taastanud.
  • Ja huvitav kas neid "random movementse" tekitavad robotid või keegi soovib meelega müüa 2,5 % allpool turu hinda või?
  • Kvartali vaheraporti avaldanud Intel (INTC) kitsendas varasemat käibevahemikku ning nüüd oodatakse müüki $9,8 ja $10 miljardi vahele. Kuna varasemalt ennustati vahemikuks $9,6 kuni $10,2 mld, siis prognoosi keskpunkt jäi samaks ($9,9mld). Eelmise aasta kolmandast kvartalist tähendaks see 16% kasvu, kuna siis kujunes käibeks $8,5mld

    Nagu ikka, kiideti tugevat sülearvutite nõudlust ning tänu sellele teatati oodatust ka pisut kõrgematest brutokasumi marginaalidest - kui varasemalt ennustati marginaale 60% pluss-miinus mõne punkti juurde, siis nüüd peaks need kergelt 60%-st kõrgemaks kujunema (põhimõtteliselt jääma vahemikku 60% +/- 1%).

    Kuigi tundub, et Inteli teated olid investoritele kergeks pettumuseks ning aktsiad langesid järelturul umbes protsendi jagu madalamale, toetasid tehnologiasektorit nii Texas Instrumentsi (TXN) kui National Semi (NSM) positiivsemad sõnumid. TXN kergitas varasemat käibe- ja kasumivahemikku, põhjendades seda laiapõhjalise tugeva nõudlusega. Ka NSM ületas tulemustega analüütikute ootusi.

  • TXN positiivsus võib ehk üle kanduda ka Nokiale?

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