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  • 3Q EPSks oodatakse 0,18-0,19€ (varem 0,14-0,17€). Käibeks €8,4-8,5 mrd (varem €7,9-8,2Mrd)
  • Perlos (POS1V) +3,56%

    Elcoteq (ELQAV) +1,86%
  • No ja PSRC'lt ka täna kõva cap üles!!
  • Rev Shark:

    Bears Seek a Cure for Contagious Confidence
    9/13/2005 9:02 AM EDT
    "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence."

    -- Vince Lombardi

    Yesterday the market saw a slight hesitation in the recent surge of bullishness. For a while it looked like a drop in crude oil prices would keep the move going, but the excitement over the dip faded as oil moved just slightly off its lows late in the day.

    The post-Katrina rally has been driven to a great extent by the attitude that if all this bad news can't hurt the market, then we have no place to go but up. There has been a high level of disbelief and many market participants have only grudgingly participated. At the end of last week it looked like there were finally some newly converted bulls who decided that maybe the market isn't so bad after all.

    I've been very skeptical about this market over the last week or so and I continue to feel that there are just too many hurdles for this move to last too long. I believe the recent move was mostly a product of poorly positioned investors initially, and then performance anxiety in recent days. The bulls have been confident and that has helped attract buyers.

    I believe the most likely scenario for this market is a stalled rally and then a very sharp drop. When the recent upward trajectory slows, I'll be looking for an aggressive bout of profit-taking and a few dip buyers to stem the downside. I'm not sure what the catalyst for that will be, but I suspect a rebound in oil would be the most likely.

    The market has been able to feed on the confidence produced by the positive reaction after Hurricane Katrina, which has persisted much longer than many thought possible. However, once that ends, profit-taking and worry about the long list of market concerns will also feed on itself. The market tends to move in streaks and the reason is because of Coach Lombardi's observation above: Confidence, or lack thereof, is contagious. I'm concerned that the market is about to become less confident.

    For now the technical picture remains intact, but it won't take much to change that and we have to be ready to move quickly.

    We have a weak start this morning. Oil is up, overseas markets were generally weak, and there are some downgrades and a warning from BBY to contend with. The bulls have their work cut out for them.

    Position: No positions in stocks mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:


  • kõik taas LHV chatti oodatud, praegu 20 külastajat.
  • RedeEnvelope (REDE) +16% - teab keegi põhjust? :)
  • Briefing.com, 19 minuti eest:


    11:02 REDE RedEnvelope -- potential internet holiday season play (10.03 +0.15)

    Traders appear to be positioning themselves in Internet stocks ahead of the holiday shopping season. AMZN, GOOG, NILE, and YHOO are all near new 52-week highs. Traders may want to keep RedEnvelope on the radar. The co focuses on upscale gifts, offering a wide assortment of high-quality, thoughtful gifts, many of which are difficult to find elsewhere. REDE is not yet profitable on a yearly basis but that's expected to change next fiscal year beginning April 1. The stock's valuation is attractive on a 2005 price/sales basis. REDE trades at just 0.7x vs 2.9x for NILE, probably its closest public competitor. Other internet retailers: AMZN 2.1x, PRVD 1.4x. For each of the 2 holiday seasons the co has been public, the stock made strong pushes (from Oct-Dec 2003, stock ran 33% and from Sep 2004-Feb 2005, the stock more than doubled). Mkt cap $90 mln, float 4.8 mln, avg vol 31K.

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