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Börsipäev 13.oktoober - Rumeenias leiti linnugripis linde

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  • Siin Briefingu kokkuvõte, selle sündmuse puhul liikuda võivatest aktsiatest:

    Bird Flu Summary : The potential for a bird flu, or avian flu, outbreak is likely to remain in the news over the coming weeks as the US govt devises a plan to deal with a potential outbreak. While many of these smaller co's may never see any actual revenues from avian flu contracts, we thought we'd provide a list of stocks traders are looking at in the space:

    Sinovac Biotech (SVA) recently received a production license from China's FDA for its influenza flu vaccine, Anflu. Also, the co is based in China, essentially ground zero for the virus, and sales rose 127% yoy in 2004 to $6.5 mln....

    BioCryst Pharma's (BCRX) peramivir drug appears to be useful in fighting avian flu. In an Aug 23 note, Wedbush Morgan said peramivir could be competitive with Gilead's/Roche's Tamiflu if peramivir proves efficacious in upcoming clinical studies. Co may soon announce a collaboration agreement with a major pharmaceutical co. BCRX has said it's in discussions....

    Roche and Gilead are big names in the space with the Tamiflu vaccine. However, Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) recently announced that an independent preclinical study showed that its Ampligen vaccine enhances the effectiveness of Tamiflu against the Avian flu. Yesterday, the co announced a deal with HollisterStier Labs to produce Ampligen...

    Novavax (NVAX) recently reported preclinical results that a vaccine produced with its proprietary VLP technology is effective in protecting animals against the avian flu. A big plus is that his technology allows the production of large quantities of vaccine within a short timeframe....

    Crucell (CRXL) has technology to make vaccines without using time consuming egg based method....

    Embrex (EMBX) sells systems to inject influenza seed strains into eggs that are used in the flu vaccine production process...

    Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) has been highlighted by Piper Jaffray as a bird flu play. The co is working with the Univ of Georgia to develop siRNAs to treat and prevent Pandemic Influenza. Firm believes RNAi offers a unique approach to antiviral therapy....

    Quidel's (QDEL) QuickVue influenza A+B tests are believed to detect avian flu strands in viral cultures....

    Other stocks traders are considering:
    GNBT (developing novel vaccine for pandemic influenza),
    APT (makes disposable protective masks),
    CALM (egg producer; eggs are used to make the vaccine; high short interest),
    AVII...
    Gilead (GILD),
    Chiron (CHIR)
    and MedImmune (MEDI) are also in the space, but are larger cap.
  • Cody Willard:

    Complacency Disappears from Market
    10/13/2005 8:46 AM EDT

    Remember that whole complacency thing that ruled the world just a few short weeks ago?

    In the immediate aftermath of Katrina, the market acted a lot like it had in the immediate aftermath of the London bombings. That is, it went steadily higher to the surprise of just about everyone.

    But it wasn't the rally that brought out investor complacency -- it was the steadiness of the action. That steady action, along with the steady newsflow out of the economy had bulls -- and bears -- feeling, acting, trading and investing complacently.

    If both the action and the fundamentals are throwing no surprises, then nobody feels much reason to freak out. Oh sure, the shorts gave into an occasional squeeze, such as in Sandisk. And yes, the longs certainly gave up an occasional bashing, such as in Palm. But for the most part, bulls would buy into strength and bears would short on weakness.

    Then came October, the month of pumpkins, playoff baseball and volatility. Suddenly, selling beget more selling. Emotions ran as stocks collapsed.

    A hedgie friend of mine lamented to me yesterday that he hadn't been "hedged well for this." I told him that nobody was hedged for this. Longs have been crushed; shorts have been paid. But few people are flat for October.

    There's some insight in that last paragraph. With emotions on the rise, with a lot of money having come quickly out of this market, with bulls having given up a bunch of gains in a hurry, with the shorts suddenly finding themselves on a run, and with year-end just around the corner, there are many dynamics in place for a whole lot more fireworks between now and year-end.

    I believe the primary driver will be the fundamental outlook. If the economy and earnings continue to look strong, cash will gently come back in to the market, the shorts will start to squeeze themselves again, and the valuations of the many stocks (such as I highlighted yesterday) will run back at least toward more historically "normal" levels. If the economy and earnings falter, watch for the shorts to really press -- and make good money doing so.

    I believe the risk/reward is back in favor of the bulls here, but it's not an easy bet (and it's already stressful as I'm starting to set up that bet). A few weeks ago in response to another writer's question that asked me if I was "concerned" about some news in one of my stocks, I wrote I never understood traders and investors who say they're not concerned. I'm concerned, I'm worried and I'm stressed out. Comes with the job, as I see it. Complacency? That's something for another time and place.

    Position: Net long SNDK, PALM

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Äkki keegi saaks siia kopeerida The Streeti artikli Sell This Apple Turnover?
    Ette tänades
  • to Adamz

    Kui Sa pidasid silmas Gary B Smithi artiklit, siis seal on paraku Apple'ist täpselt nii palju kui üks graafik.

  • Nagu tagantjärgi näha ei saa TA'd kasutada ilma fundamentaalsete sündmuste arvestamisega (kvartalitulemuste avaldamine/uute toodete tutvustus)... eile +8% üles ja kah kõva käibega.
  • Eks TA annagi ainult mõnevõrra parema tõenäosuse, et analüüsi ennustus võiks täide minna. See tõenäosus kehtib läbivalt võibolla sadade sarnaste situatsioonide peale kokku ning võib ju olla a la 0.6 või 0.7 vms.. kuid see ei välista ju, et osade selliste piltide puhul vastupidine ei toimuks, ka ootustele vastupidiste sündmuste tõenäosused on vastavalt siis 0.4 või 0.3 vms.. ka küllalt arvestatav tõenäosus.

    Antud analüüsi kohta võiks ju öelda, et hea küll, "high volume, big fall, all good".. aga samas "keep your stop close and your attention high". Et siiski tegemist ju veidi kaalukama tõenäosuse, mitte paraku kindla ennustusega.
  • Gary B Smith'ile on fundamentaalse tausta (tulemused, tooteesitlused) eiramist mitmel korral lugejate pooltki ette heidetud, kuid mees põhjendab oma lähenemist selliselt (28. juuli artiklist):

    The value of combining fundamentals and technicals is entirely dependent on your view of trading. Let's start with an assumption that over the course of a year you have 1,000 available trades to make. With your combo method (FA+TA), you might make only 300, with your fundamental "screen" throwing out the remainder. On those 300, though, you show a profit 80% of the time. In short, your focus is on having a high win rate.

    The pure technician, however, has no screen and takes all 1,000 picks. He does have a few clunkers like TUP, but also a few winners like eBay (EBAY), where the stock popped after earnings. Overall, though, his win rate is only 50%. Still, he does have 500 winners, while the TA/Fundy approach only yielded 240. Assuming each approach produces 5% on the winners and cost 2% for the losers, a TA-only approach comes out ahead.

    The bottom line for me? I try never to confuse "being right" with "making money," concentrating only on the odds and percentages nature of trading. For a society raised on the notion that an "A" is better than a "B" and a fast time is better than a slow time, that's a tough concept to embrace and one that mainstream Wall Street will never adopt. It works for me, though. 

  • Tamiflu Resistant Bird Flu Reported By Vietnamese Scientists -- Bloomberg

    mille peale GILDil läks kõhu alt õõnsaks...

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