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Börsipäev 14.oktoober - GE tulemused, inflatsiooni numbrid, Refco tüsistused

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna tuleb tihe päev:

    6:30 GE tulemused (maailma kõige suurema turukapitalisatsiooniga firma, järelikult ka arvestatav mõju turule)
    8:30 CPI numbrid - inflatsiooni kartused on suured!
    8:30 jaemüügi numbrid - kuidas on ameeriklased konsumeerinud septembris?
    9:45 Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentiment

    Veel:
    Refco(RFX) jamad (räägitakse, et treiderid kardavad sündmuse tagajärgi ja likvideerivad derivaatide positsioone).
    Refco finantseerijad BAC,CSR,DB võivad ka suurema pressi alla sattuda.
    Viimaste päevade langus pole ilmselt läbi, sest sedasorti kukkumine (SPX -60punkti ühe kuuga) lõppeb reeglina paanikaga (kapitulatsioon, wash-out), aga paanika märke ei ole olnud.
  • Täpsustaks, et GE ei ole ca 3 kuud enam olnud maailma suurima turukapitalisatsiooniga. Nafta hind on teinud oma töö.
  • Earnings Could Provide the Rally Spark
    10/14/2005 8:43 AM EDT

    Earnings are here, and we're starting to see evidence that the market has indeed priced in a major downturn in business. Yesterday's prime example was Lam Research. The semiconductor-equipment manufacturer reported a strong quarter with good order flow and nice guidance. And most importantly, the stock popped -- up more than 10% yesterday on heavy volume, because the market was forced to reassess the pervasive assumption that "the semi-cycle is collapsing."

    Similar arguments can be made about Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) and Genentech (DNA:NYSE). Genentech is up from where it was before its strong earnings report. Apple is up nearly 20% from where it traded after hours Wednesday night, when it was trading 10% down from Wednesday's close. With action like that the initial takeaway would have that the market was still too high, with too many weakhanded longs and not enough shorts to provide buying power. But now it appears that earnings and guidance -- if they're good -- are likely to be a catalyst for a rally.

    In addition to the well-publicized and almost overly-discussed issues facing this market -- from Katrina to inflation to housing peaking and so on -- this week has brought out two more issues. Namely, Refco and the Avian flu breakout. Investors are now putting each of these on their radars, and that has certainly contributed to the increasing volatility in the market.

    While on the Refco front, I'd also note that the relentless selling pressure, in tech as well as in energy, has had a "forced" selling feel to it. There's no way at this point to know whether there really has even been any forced selling, or whether it is directly related to Refco or perhaps related to a major firm liquidating its longs. But I've wondered about that dynamic and have heard from some very smart money managers wondering about it too.

    Regardless, the point is that earnings will likely be a catalyst for this market. I think the outlook, as evidenced by Apple, Lam, AMD, GE, and other biggies who have reported, is for steady strength. And I think that means the risk/reward lies most favorably with the bulls in the near and intermediate term. GE will be a further "tell" for this, although it's such a big name and is already up about 5% in the last week in this nasty market, so even a flat day would probably be a bullish tell.

    We still have a fifth of the trading week before us, so let's keep the pedal to the metal and stay sharp.

    Position: Net long AAPL


  • Panime LHV Pro alla ka Toyota Motor analüüsi, huvitav lugemine.
  • Täna paistavad GE ja XOM capid võrdsed olevat 363B USDi juures

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