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Börsipäev 17. oktoober

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  • Rev Shark:

    Staying on Defense
    10/17/2005 9:01 AM EDT

    "We are not without accomplishment. We have managed to distribute poverty equally."

    -- Nguyen Co Thatch, Vietnamese foreign minister

    No, Mr. Thatch is not a member of the Federal Reserve, although some would argue that it seems to have adopted a similar policy by which it distributes misery to rich and poor alike.

    There are all sorts of issues affect this market, from oil prices to poor technical patterns but by far the biggest obstacle is the Fed's fight against inflation. It wouldn't be such a difficult problem if the economy were showing some real strength, but with energy prices soaring, consumer confidence eroding, the housing market cooling, and hurricane damage still being sussed out, we do not have the sort of strength that can withstand inflationary pressures. So we are faced with the specter of stagflation, which is probably the most difficult of all problems for the market.

    That backdrop is going to keep a lid on this market, and although we are likely to see some relief from the nasty selling in the past couple weeks, the big technical picture should keep us on the defensive. There is no reason to jump in this market in hopes of catching a big market turn. If one does develop, there will be plenty of opportunities to participate but keep stops tight and be cautious.

    The good news is that earnings season starts in earnest this week and market participants may set aside some of their macroeconomic concerns and focus on good news from individual companies. Many stocks that report this week such as Intel and Motorola have been a house of pain lately and expectations are apparently quite low. What a difference that is from last quarter, where they had run up big in anticipation of earnings reports.

    Keep in mind the danger of holding into earnings reports but with expectations low there may be some positive action if companies reassure us that things aren't that bad. I suspect we will see some of the recent laggards come back to life when management lets us know that they aren't going out of business.

    To complicate matters further we have another hurricane brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and that is pushing up oil again. As I've mentioned numerous times, I don't think oil is dead and I am waiting for a technical setup so that I can remount some positions. I suspect that we will have that chance that week.

    We have a mixed start with the jump in oil taking a toll. I'm running late and will be back shortly with more.

    Position: No positions in stocks mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:

     

     

  • kas see tähendab, et DNDN`lt on mingit olulist infot oodata....
    "First there is a 50K block that trades for 6.32 about an hour ago, then a 150K block trades below the bid for 6.00.
    Both trades coming from Fidelity"
  • See tähendab, et keegi dumpis stocki hoolega. kust sa seda loed üldse?

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