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  • Rev Shark:

    Wind at Bulls' Backs
    10/25/2005 9:05 AM EDT

    "A gentle breeze blowing in the right direction is better than a pair of strong oars."

    -- Spanish proverb

    The bulls have the wind at their backs, but after the biggest positive day in six months we will need to digest gains before the market is likely to work higher. The combination of a high level of negativity, some decent earnings reports, a short squeeze and good feelings about the new Fed head propelled the market strongly, but the bulls have had it rough in recent weeks are many are likely to take gains into this strength.

    The key is that the market now consolidate gains, hold support levels and not give too much back. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ:Nasdaq) has delivered a V-shaped bounce and has some tough resistance to overcome. The best way to do that will be to pull back and base out for a while. If the bulls can hold us fairly steady for a few days, they will be in excellent shape to then attack overhead resistance.

    Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) failed to deliver a strong enough report to continue the momentum in technology stocks that seemed to be building. Unfortunately expectations jumped as the usual suspects encouraged investors to gamble on the report. I've written about it many times and will continue to warn about the dangers in front of earnings. It is tough enough for professional traders to make money that way, but it is downright irresponsible for the average investor to be encouraged to approach the market in that way, regardless of how many disclaimers are posted.

    The action today will give us some insight into whether the recent bullish action is for real or just a blip on the screen in a very negative environment. I continue to be optimistic about this market, but as a realist I know that it is not going to be an easy climb higher. The bulls can afford to rest here, but they better not get lazy or the bears will certainly be quick to take advantage.

    We have a weak start this morning. Overseas markets were generally positive, oil is weak again and gold is continuing its rally that started yesterday.

    Position: Long QQQQ

     


     

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