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Börsipäev 26. oktoober

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  • Rev Shark:

    The Pause That Might Refresh
    10/26/2005 9:13 AM EDT

    "When we are sure that we are on the right road there is no need to plan our journey too far ahead. No need to burden ourselves with doubts and fears as to the obstacles that may bar our progress. We cannot take more than one step at a time."

    -- Orison Swett Marden

    Over the past two weeks the market has slowly and steadily moved forward, and the slight pullback yesterday simply served as consolidation of recent gains rather than a change in market character. Things look positive but it is important at this juncture that we not let our hopes about the future cloud our perception about market health. So far the bulls are making progress but that can change quickly.

    The primary market dynamic that seems to be at work right now is the rather trite and too convenient phrase, "climbing a wall of worry." The macro market environment seems to be dominated by bad news from hurricanes, inflation, energy prices and a general economic malaise. But despite those issues, the market has been inching up in a seemingly illogical fashion as buyers slowly deploy capital and begin to question the bearish arguments.

    This is a fragile balance and can easily be destroyed if the selling on a pullback becomes too intense. A pullback that increases negativity is actually good but if it goes too far and support levels are broken, that wall of worry will be too steep and slippery to climb.

    So we keep our overall bullish bias but we take this market one step at time and stay prepared to adapt as circumstances change. The Nasdaq can fall as far as 2075 before it will kill the recent rally attempt. If it falls that far on declining volume and breadth, that isn't so poor that it would keep me optimistic, but if it pulled back on higher volume and lousy breadth I'd be concerned that further downside is in the cards.

    The biggest worry about this market right now is the poor action in semiconductors; we badly need that group to at least stop going down. It doesn't have to be the leader, although that would be nice, but it has to stop being so weak.

    We have a shaky start on tap. Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) posted poor earnings, but there are also some very good reports to be found. I suspect we will continue to see consolidation of recent gains, which is fine as long as downside momentum doesn't pick up.

    Overseas markets were frisky, gold and oil are down a bit and there is no major economic news due this morning.

    Position: No positions in stocks mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:

  • RIMM - kauplemine peatatud:

    On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court denied the company's request to delay proceedings in a long-running patent dispute with NTP until the high court decided whether to consider an appeal in the case. The decision is only the latest legal setback for RIM, which faces the possibility of being barred from offering its popular BlackBerry service in the U.S. as an outcome of the case. Following the news, the Nasdaq halted trade in shares of RIM, marking the third time this month that's happened as a result of a development in the patent dispute.

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