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Börsipäev 1. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Rev Shark:

    Ability to Deal With Bad News Is Key
    11/1/2005 8:37 AM EST

    Wherever there is danger, there lurks opportunity; whenever there is opportunity, there lurks danger. The two are inseparable. They go together.

    --Earl Nightingale

    After a powerful two-day rally, the danger of a pullback is increasing, but so is the potential opportunity of a strong uptrend. The key to the market lately has been its ability to disregard negative news and a generally gloomy sentiment. This rally began Friday morning after poor news from Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) and the chip sector. It picked up steam yesterday on some slightly positive economic news and a lot of badly positioned market participants.

    The question now is whether a warning from Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and another rate hike from the FOMC boys is going to cool this market. The reaction today is going to tell us a lot about the state of the market. If the market can handle these dangers, the upside possibilities are very bright.

    As you might expect, Dell has a couple of downgrades this morning and is putting some pressure on the futures. Is this a major surprise that will stun the bulls? Not if you look at the charts. The stock is off around 25% in the last few months and has been downtrending since late last year. Like Microsoft, it is a dominant elephantine company that simply can't grow like it has in the past. Its problems have been anticipated by the market, to an extent, and now we will see to what degree they have been priced in. If the market is able to keep its reaction to Dell mild, the bulls will be in good shape.

    The second potential danger the market faces is the FOMC interest rate decision that is due at 2:15 p.m. EST. Once again, a quarter-point hike is widely anticipated and the accompanying policy statement is likely to be the key. There is a contingent of folks that are hopeful that the Fed may be a bit less hawkish, but it is questionable how widely held that sentiment might be. Although there is hope that the new Fed chief may take a different approach, Dr. Greenspan is still in control and it is doubtful he will call into question his legacy as an inflation fighter.

    Even if the news flow doesn't hurt the bulls, they do face some technical hurdles. After a good bounce, we are slightly overbought and could use a rest. A contained pullback here would not be a major concern, and would even be downright healthy as long as we don't slip too much. The problem with recent pullbacks is that they have been too strong, with very poor breadth and high volume. A less mild pullback on the Dell news would be very promising.

    It does feel to me that there still is a fairly high level of skepticism about this market and that many folks are underinvested. Although many of the writers on RealMoney are bullish, I've heard from and have seen a lot of very confident bearish arguments. The potential for climbing a wall of worry are quite high -- and don't forget we are now entering the seasonally strongest three-month period of the year.

    We have our work cut out for us today. Be prepared for some choppy action as market players wrestle with which way this market is headed. The ability to deal with bad news is the key.

    In the early going, we have negative indications. Overseas markets were up slightly, oil is flat and gold has bounced a bit. Dell doesn't seem to be having too much impact overseas so far.

    Position: No positions in stocks mentioned.

    Gary B. Smith:


  • Tegeleme hetkel probleemiga, kuid kindlat aega ei oska öelda, täpsem info maaklerite telefonil 6 800 420.
  • Eee, mis Traderiga lahti on?!? Siin küll töötab!
  • müügiordereid saab sisestada, ostu omi mitte. liqonly=liquidate only
  • Tahtsin straddleit, calli sain, put-i mitte. Sama jutt ,liqonly=liquidate only. Ei teagi mida teha.
  • Ja kui vaadata DIGE -t siis just put oligi vajalik. Häving.
  • Luhikeseks muua samuti ei saa, saab ainult pika possu olemasolu korral positsiooni likvideerida.
    Aga mida sa positsioonidest ikka likvideerid, kui midagi asemele osta/muua ei saa, see ju treidimis- mitte investeerimiskonto.
    29.90 on CHK muugiaar praegu...kahjuks ei saa osta:(


    Loodetavasti on vahemalt homse eelturu ajaks Trader korras voi vahemalt mingi alternatiiv kauplemishuvilistele klientidele valja moeldud.
  • no see on küll tõeline pommuudis. viimane lõik
    "A temporary restraining order freezing the defendants' assets and ordering the repatriation of funds taken out of the United States was issued by the district court on Tuesday, the SEC said in a press release."
    seletab nii mõndagi
  • Ouch mehed. Ouch. Kas see on sama asi, mida fit teeb? Kui te selle asja suudate PR-spinniga maha vaigistada ja kliendid teilt lahkuma ei hakka, siis MÜTS MAHA!
  • Mida see tahendab mulle kui LHV investeerimiskontol aktisaid hoidvale investorile?

    B.
  • selle arvutihäkiga teenisid nad siis üle saja miljoni eegu. pole paha.
  • ok see asi oli teada juba 3 tundi tagasi ja ei mingit kommentaari LHVlt?
  • Noh, loodetavasti kliendid saavad ikka raha tagasi. Või vähemalt välja nõuda.
  • Ai, liialt julm tegevus. :( Pressikat tahas küll hommikul.
  • ei teagi kas nutta või naerda
    päris naljakas on seda lugeda, kuigi asi on vast naljast kaugel

    raha tuleb ja raha läheb,
    aga "permanent injunctive relief" saadaks noored mehed pensionile

    sitkust ja jõudu teile
  • Kui SEC saab oma tahtmise, peavad päris paljud inimesed vist endale uut maaklerit otsima hakkama. Kas City Plazas tuled põlevad?
  • Suffiks, ma teen siis sarnase oletuse, et kuna sul on laps, siis järelikult oled pedofiil? Kah ju peaaegu sama teema?

    Aga jah, üritamine uudisinfot kiire reaktsiooniga püüda tundub pärast selle SECi teate läbilugemist olevat sama nagu sõelaga vee kandmine. Kõigil "tegijatel" info juba ammu olemas.
    Päris huvitav muidugi, et kas pressiteateid antakse Business Wire'le siis juba tunde enne meediasse paiskamist, sest ma ei ole tähele pannud et mingi 10-15 minutit enne oluliste reliiside ametliku ilmumist aktsiad hüppaks.
  • Uurimine puudutab vaid üksikuid "LHV Trader" kontosid. Klientidel, kes ei ole kauplemiseks kasutanud confidentsiaalset infot, ei ole põhjust muretsemiseks. Samuti ei ole ei LHV ega LHV fondide varad selle kaasusega seotud ega ohustatud. Täpsem info hommikul.
    Tõnis Haavel, LHV Partner.
  • I guess ... See lugu läheb WSJ ja saab USAs palju vastukaja.
  • My bad, kui ei siis ei. Ma lihtsalt olen kõrva taha pannud fraasi, mis umbkaudu kõlas nii: "Kui keegi teine teeks seda sama mida mina, siis mu tootlus halveneks." Lisades siia selle, kui agaralt homsed päevakangelased siinsetes foorumites piltlikult öeldes huultega su johnsonit masserivad, siis minu haiglane paranoia tekitas kohe konstruktsiooni, mille külge haakis sinu kunagise (vähemalt näilise/oletatava) valmisoleku välise võimenduse kaasamiseks. Sorry, et ma eksisin.
  • Respekt suffiks, täpsustuseks, kindlasti treidivad paljud uudiseid nagu mina ja tootlus ongi aastatega halvenenud

    Muide, DowJones kirjutas nii:

    The SEC said the scheme began in January 2005 and the defendants accessed
    Business Wire's secure Web site as recently as Oct. 28. LHV opened a
    Business Wire account in June 2004, but never actually issued a press
    release through Business Wire, the SEC said.
    The complaint says the SEC this summer began investigating the trading
    volume of a stock immediately prior to a merger announcement in June 2005.
    The regulatory agency didn't name the company.
    The SEC, using trading information from CyberTrader, found 105,000 shares
    had been purchased prior to the merger announcement and sold after the
    announcement by an account whose title was a derivation of Oliver Peek with
    an Estonia mailing address, according to the lawsuit. Information obtained
    from Interactive Brokers LLC also revealed similar trading in the same
    security before and after the merger announcement by accounts in the name of
    LHV and Lepik Trading, according to the complaint.
    The lawsuit said Business Wire, as of Oct. 28, 2005, took a sampling of
    about 10 press releases it had disseminated and in which there was trading
    by LHV-related accounts and confirmed the spider program had retrieved
    confidential information about each of those news releases.
    The regulatory agency has asked that the defendants be permanently enjoined
    from engaging in this conduct and has asked the court to order them to
    disgorge any ill-gotten gains and pay civil penalties in the matter.
    A hearing on the SEC's request for a preliminary injunction in the matter is
    set for Nov. 8 before U.S. District Judge Robert W. Sweet.




  • ja ma pole kunagi mõelnud, kas keegi, kellel on teoreetiline pääs minu arvutisse, seda ka reaalselt kasutab.
    Pole just suurem asi kunsttükk teha proge mis kliendi arvutis sobrab ja iga liigutuse ette kannab.
    Lollid mõtted, aga olen alati arvanud, et usast broker või keegi sebib perse taga, sest liiga tihti hakkavad aktsiad, väikesekäibelised, tõusma kohe, praaegu momentalselt peale seda kui olen tunde tõusu või põrget oodanud ja lõpuks, halvema vältimiseks possu kinni pannud.Ja mida vidrikut, ja lähebki aktsia kohe tõusu....
    Fakk, kogu see elektrooniline värk käib ainult targemate kavalpeade tasku, kes sinust paar sammu ees on ja sinu mõtetele ligi pääsevad.
    Kindlast on usas või kus iganes osakonnad, kus peilitakse treidereid, kel töökindel strateegia ja hhagitakse end talle külge ja oh imet strateegia hakkab treiderile tasilööke andma, sest nüüd enam ei tööta ta ise vaid tema ette ja taha on tekkinud suur seltskond, kellest treideril aimugi pole.
    Peaks ka vist ametit vahetama ja hoopis kavalpeaks hakkama.
  • Päris karmid süüdistused. LHV alustas esimese asjana sisejuurdlust, et toimunu täpsed asjaolud välja selgitada. Loodan, et need süüdistused minu aadressil saavad uurimise käigus ümber lükatud, kuid korrektse uurimise huvides peatan oma tegevuse LHV juhatuse liikmena ja LHV investeerimisteenuste juhina.

    Loodan, et saate aru, kui ütlen, et enne lõplike uurimistulemuste teatamist ei saa ma täpsemaid kommentaare anda.

    Parimat,
    Kristjan Lepik
  • Jänkidele käib pinda, et meil nii võimekad poisid on! Muidu peavad nad ju ennast maailmanabaks!

    Kannatust ja võitku õiglus!
  • Nojah, loodetavasti tõesti ei nuhelda eduka straddledamise või kauplemise pärast. Edu Kristjanile ja Oliverile.

    ÄP kirjutab: "Tamm selgitas, et LHV peab oma seisukoha USA väärtpaberijärelvalvele SEC teatavaks tegema 7. novembriks. Esimene kohtuistung toimub Ameerikas juba 8. novembril. "
  • Jättes nüüd mõneks ajaks ebameeldiva teema kõrvale, küsiks millist saiti oleks soovitada optsiooniinfo saamiseks? Aadressil http://www.ivolatility.com/ tundub delay ikka väga suur olevat. Momendil ikka veel andmed 01.11.05 seisuga.
  • scottrader.com sealt saab infot reaalajas ka optsioonide kohta.
  • paavot, ega tasuta kahjuks head asja ei saa. hilinemisega saab optsioonihindasid vaadata yahoo finance'ist ja prophet.net'ist. prophetis olemas ka optsioonide graafikud. tõsisemalt tegelemiseks vajalik ikkagi korralik tasuline andmeteenus või liigipääs mõne maakleri platvormile.

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