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  • Rev Shark:

    Role Reversal: Don't Get Too Optimistic
    11/3/2005 8:17 AM EST

    "Confidence is the feeling you have before you understand the situation."

    -- Author Unknown

    Market players have apparently forgotten how bad things really are. Obviously, if they really understood the situation, not only would they not buy, they would be stocking up on canned goods and digging a bunker in the backyard. Everyone knows there is nothing positive about the economy, the political situation and the world in general. The future is downright bleak and we should start hoarding cash in our mattress right now!

    And that, my friends, is why the market looked so darn good yesterday. Too many people were too negative and when the recent spate of bad news didn't crack the market, they were left underinvested and had no choice but to jump back in a market that refuses to cooperate with the bears.

    The truth of the matter is things really aren't as bad as the media and many pundits would have you believe. Energy prices are up and home sales have softened but the economy remains strong and resilient. Two major hurricanes that did billions in damage are being digested by the economy, the consumer is hanging tough and the Fed is more worried about inflation than economic growth.

    Can the bulls keep this market moving to the upside? They certainly have the wind at their backs right now. The major indices have all moved back over their 50-day moving averages, the action yesterday was technically superb with increased volume and solid breadth to support the big point move, and technology stocks exhibited signs of taking on a leadership role. We have seasonality and also a substantial wall of worry to further support the bullish cause.

    Oil and gas stocks bounced back a bit yesterday and many of them are looking technically attractive after finding downside support. This sector could prove to be a headwind for the market if it gains further upside traction. Oil is up about 70 cents as I write and we'll have to watch that a bit more closely today.

    The most important thing now is to not let optimism about the market prevent you from following sound money management practices. Don't hold on to poor stocks because you are hopeful that a strong market will bail them out, don't forget to take some profits in your big winners, and be prepared to raise some cash so you can take advantage of the inevitable dips that occur even within the best trends.

    This market can afford to pull back and rest a bit today so don't be too worried if we struggle a bit here. It is not only to be expected -- it is healthy.

    Early indications are flat but overseas markets were buoyant. Oil and gold are up and we have productivity, weekly unemployment and factory orders on the economic agenda.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

     

  • MRK Merck follow-up (30.50 +2.09) -Update-

    Bloomberg reports that MRK didn't fail to warn about Vioxx dangers, didn't engage in consumer fraud. Reports MRK wins total victory in NJ Vioxx case
  • Ma ütlesin juba ammu, et MRK on parem investeering kui PFE ajal kui PFE-d üles kiideti. Teine on BMY.
  • Kui eesti kratid on turult kõrvaldatud siis ometigi on ka usa turg hoo sisse saanud!
  • news flash: volatiilsused languses !

    seoses LHV kontode sulgemise ning "straddle enne tulemusi" hooaja katkestamisega,
    on märgata straddle positsioonide olulist odavnemist.

    SEC kaalub erimeetmete kasutusele võtmist ning LHV kontode avamist,
    kuna on oht, et järelejäänud turuosalised võivad liiga kergelt rikkaks saada.
  • Oracle CFO Maffei may leave company - Bloomberg
  • Eile tuli ka uudis, et Johnson&Johnson sai loa ära osta Guidant. See oli juba pikka aega oodatav uudis ning arvatakse, et Guidanti jaoks on see ainus võimalus aktsionäridele head tulu pakkuda. Hetkel tundub, et Johnson&Johnson üritab Guidanti hinda alla kaubelda, kuna Guidantil on viimasel ajal probleeme olnud.

    See on oluline sündmus just device sektoris, millel on viimasel ajal palju probleeme olnud.

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