Börsipäev 14. november
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Rev Shark:
Cautious, Yes; Climb Under a Rock, No
11/14/2005 8:55 AM EST"One of the rules of caution is not to be too cautious."
-- Bahya ibn Paquda
After the big move the market has made since mid-October, it would be foolish to not be at least a little cautious. If you have been riding this move and have some big gains, the prudent thing to do is to be a little less aggressive and make sure you don't let those profits slip away.
But being cautious doesn't mean turning negative. The market has done nothing wrong other than go up further and faster than is likely to be sustainable. Even if the momentum does cool off that doesn't mean the market is going to collapse suddenly.
Despite market commentary to the contrary, it is fine to have mixed feelings about the market. In fact, if you aren't at least a little worried about how extended this market is, then you are in denial. On the other hand, if you aren't impressed and encouraged by the recent momentum and positive action, then you have blinders on.
At this stage of the market you may want to do some selling and/or tighten stops on some of the stocks you hold that are the most extended. However with the market acting so well overall you may want to be more aggressive in redeploying that capital into stocks with good technical setups that are not as extended. Taking some profits is prudent -- but staying heavily invested in a market that is acting well is also prudent.
We have some minor weakness to start the week; I'm glad to see that rather than a big positive Monday open that invites selling. There is some acquisition news in the lumber industry, with Koch buying Georgia-Pacific. We had strength in commodity stocks on Friday and the acquisition may help keep that going.
Gary B. Smith:
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Täna on üheks huvipakkuvaimaks sektoriks jaemüüjad (Retail HOLDRS – RTH). Wal-Mart (WMT) ja Lowe’s (LOW) tegid teatavaks oma kvartalitulemused.
Wal-Mart reports; guides in-line (WMT) 49.00 : Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.57 per share, including a $0.02 charge, may not be comparable to the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.57; revenues rose 10.1% year/year to $76.25 bln vs the $76.24 bln Reuters Estimates consensus and the $76.35 bln First Call consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.82-0.86 vs. $0.84 consensus; co issues guidance for FY06, sees EPS of $2.64-2.68 vs. $2.64 consensus.
Lowe's reports $0.04 better than consensus; guides Q4 in-line; guides Y05 above consensus (LOW) 61.97 : Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.77; revenues rose 16.9% year/year to $10.59 bln vs the $10.51 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.77-0.80 vs. $0.79 consensus; co issues upside guidance for FY06, sees EPS of $3.37-3.40 vs. $3.35 consensus. Co also reported same store sales up 6.2%.
Mõlemad aktsiad eelturul tublis plussis ning kogu jaemüügisektorilt võib oodata jätkuvat tugevust. Sektori moodustava arvestatava osakaaluga WMT, HD, LOW, TGT, WAG, KSS.
