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Börsipäev 8.detsember

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  • Eilne aktsiaturu kukkumine genereeris kasumivõtu ka Jaapanis ja Euroopas.
    Praegu on USA indeksifutuurid miinuses. Kuld ja nafta väikses plussis.

    Jaapani aktsiaturg tegi päris korraliku kukkumise läbi(ca. -2%), kui machine tool orders statistikanumbrid ei vastanud ootustele.

    Kuigi eile osteti viimasel tunnil USA aktsiaturg üles, kahtlustan, et ka täna testitakse madalamaid tasemeid, et leida koht, kus tekib tõsisem ostuhuvi.
  • Deutsche Bank downgrades US Steel (X 49.89) to Sell from Hold and increases their tgt to $42 from $39, as they don't view a sale of the entire co as likely or at the valuation/multiples being quoted

    Deutsche Bank downgrades AK Steel (AKS 8.64) to Sell from Hold, as they believe it is difficult to value shares given the co lost money in Q3 and will be near break-even in Q4

    Merrill Lynch downgrades Nucor (NUE 68.75) to Neutral from Buy on valuation

    Merrill Lynch downgrades Sunoco (SUN 83.65) to Neutral from Buy on valuation

    ATI Tech (ATYT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch

    Jefferies downgrades Micron (MU 13.66) to Hold from Buy with a $13.50 tgt, saying that while the co continues to successfully diversify into CMOS Sensors and NAND Flash, 50% of revenues are still based on PC DRAM which is seasonal

    Jefferies downgrades Micron (MU 13.66) to Hold from Buy with a $13.50 tgt, saying that while the co continues to successfully diversify into CMOS Sensors and NAND Flash, 50% of revenues are still based on PC DRAM which is seasonal.

    Citigroup upgrades PortalPlayer (PLAY 25.55) to Buy from Hold, raises their tgt to $36 from $29 and raises their Street-low 2006 and 2007 rev and EPS estimates to above the consensus, as they believe the co will report at the high-end of 4Q05 guidance and have a lower than normal seasonal decline in 1Q06

    Appleinsider.com is reporting with a little more than two weeks left in the holiday shopping season, orders to Apple's (AAPL) manufacturing facilities for both consumer and professional laptops appear to be on the decline. The company's US distribution partners are reporting ample supply of both the iBook G4 and PowerBook G4, and are requesting very few new orders as consumers may be prolonging their purchases in anticipation of Intel-based models early next year. At the same time, demand for the co's iPod digital music players appears to be "staggering," with one Apple distributing partner showing backlog of nearly 200,000 total iPods

    Texas Instruments Mid-Quarter Update Press Release (TXN): TXN sees Q4 revs $3.56-3.705 bln vs previous guidance of $3.425-3.715 bln and $3.615 bln Reuters consensus...TXN sees Q4 EPS of $0.41-0.43 , excluding $0.03 in stock based comp expense vs $0.41 Reuters consensus, prior guidance $0.39-0.43 ex $0.03 stock exp... TXN sees Q4 Semiconductor revs $3.200-3.325 bln vs previous guidance of $3.075-3.325 bln... TXN sees Q4 Sensors & Control revs $295-305 mln vs previous guidance of $290-310 mln... TXN sees Q4 E&PS revs $65-75 mln vs previous guidance of $60-80 mln

    Bill Gross interviewed on CNBC to discuss Ben Bernanke's stance and the future of the FOMC.  Mr. Gross stated that he believes FOMC will move to a more Neutral stance and perhaps drop the 'measured pace' language.  Expects Mr. Bernanke to be more hawkish than Mr. Greenspan.  One difference that Mr. Gross points out is Mr. Bernanke believes the yield curve is a significant indicator, were Mr. Greenspan tended to dismiss it.  Mr. Gross notes that the focus of the fed over the next few periods will be theinflationary indicators and expects a debate between economic growth vs inflation.  Mr. Gross thinks the FOMC will stop at the 4.50% level

  • Rev Shark:

    When to Be Bold, When to Hold
    12/8/2005 9:03 AM EST

    "The great must submit to the dominion of prudence and of virtue, or none will long submit to the dominion of the great."

    -- Edmund Burke

    Great investing requires a measure of boldness, but also a certain level of prudence. What determines your level of success is knowing when to be bold and when to be cautious.

    For many people, boldness is easier than prudence because if you are already heavily invested, it doesn't require doing anything. Prudence is often much more work because it means that you have to watch positions, do some selling, and be ready to take action if things deteriorate.

    Boldness at a late stage of a rally can reap great rewards as markets often go much higher than many think is reasonable. But eventually there does come a point where momentum slows and a rest is needed. It is at that point that a shift to a safe and defensive stance in which you look to preserve gains rather than aggressively chase more can pay ample rewards.

    The best traders and investors are those who have developed methods for not giving back large chunks of their profits. Not only is it emotionally deflating to watch the fruits of your labor melt away but it is a lot more work to regain what you lost rather than to hold on to it.

    The market has been resting for a couple of days now and although it looks like nothing more than healthy consolidation, it could easily develop into something more. You don't have to be a market prognosticator and hold a strong opinion about where we are heading to be successful at this point -- you simply need to recognize that this might be the time to be less bold and more prudent. Tighten up stops, sell some extended stocks, raise a little cash and be more selective with your new buys.

    If you are wrong and the market does continue higher, you can quickly become more aggressive again if you know what stocks you like. If you are right and the market consolidates further, then you have a great advantage and will be prepared and positioned to benefit as the pullback eventually ends.

    We have a soft open on the way. Oil and gold are trading up again. Overseas markets were mostly weak. Weekly unemployment was a tad higher than expected but close enough to estimates to be a non-event.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Turg seisab hetkel paigal, ma arvan, et liikuma paneb turu NSM, firma avaldab kvartalitulemused pooleteisttunni pärast 12:15 NYC aja järgi
  • NSM on 4 viimasle tulemuste avaldamise päeval tõusnud:

    9.dets 2004 +0.77
    10.märts +1.13
    9.juuni +1.80
    8.sept. +1.40
  • intc vast on suurema mõjuga mis compi sealt koridorist välja lükkaks
  • buy rumor, sell news - turg tõusis NSM tulemusi aimates ja nüüd võetakse kasumit
  • INTC vaheraport täna õhtul. Homme hullumeelne dreiderite päev. :)
  • INTC esimese reaktsioonina treidib allpool 25USD, sest oodati käibeprognoosi tõstmist
  • Intel (INTC) issues guidance for Q4 (Dec), narrows revenue guidance to $10-4-10.6 bln, previous co guidance was $10.2-10.8 bln vs. $10.6 bln Reuters Estimates consensus. INTC sees Q4 gross margins of 63% plus or minus a point, previous co guidance was 63% plus or minus couple pts, 63% street expectation. Capital spending is expected to be below the midpoint of the previous expectation of $5.9 bln, plus or minus $200 mln. 
  • Graafik,
    sinu soovitus "buy rumor, sell news" on väga kahtlane. Selle eest võib nüüd vangi minna.
  • Oleks ma osant soovitada, ma vaid konstanteerisin tagantjärgi turuliikumist :)
  • arvan siiski, et qqqq tuleb siiski 43 ära see aasta, kui kõrgemale tõuseb siis läheb jaanuaris, nagu alati! ehk putid kotti, aint kahjuks lhv-st osta neid ei saa ja ei tea kas see aasta saabki!
  • Ma arvan, et tuleb paari-kolme nädalane külgsuunas liikumine või isegi langus, peale seda on lootust aastavahetuse rallile. Hetkel on enamus aktsiad tehniliselt vastupanu all ja MACD indikaator näitab langust. Sama asi ka DOW, NASDAQ ja S&P 500 indeksitel
  • kui tõusu ei tule detsembris, siis tuleb see jaanuaris, naftahind hakkab häirima, kui frontmonth futuur läheb üle 65

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