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  • Striking the Right Trading Balance

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/28/2006 9:10 AM EST

    "Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty."

    -- Mark Twain

    One of the great dilemmas of the stock market is that although great certainty is very dangerous, without a high level of conviction and associated action it is impossible to produce superior returns. The easy approach to the market is to always be in doubt. If you never have strong opinions about which way things are headed and don't put your capital at risk, you aren't going to suffer any losses. That is fine if you simply want to preserve your capital but if you want to make some money you need to have an opinion and act on it at times.

    Unfortunately too many people make the mistake of thinking that they must always have a strong opinion about where the market is headed. Always being confident about where things are headed is even worse than always being uncertain, because the risk of loss is much greater when you act on your strong beliefs. The successful investor is able to adjust his confidence level. He knows that most of the time he has no great edge and must act cautiously, yet he also knows how to act aggressively when his convictions are strong.

    The difficult task for many is shifting their viewpoint from one of certainty to a less confident state. There is a certain amount of inertia in our thinking and opinions about the market: Bulls tend to stay bullish and bears continue to be pessimistic until circumstances force them to change their minds.

    Recently I have been a rather confident bull. I've been optimistic about where the market is headed and have been heavily long as a result. I continue to feel positive about the markets but I also have to be careful to keep an open mind and to look for reasons I might want to temper my confidence. I don't want to be overly anticipatory and start worrying about all of these terrible things that the bears promise will rain down us at any moment. But I don't want to be so confident and certain that all is well that I fail to acknowledge legitimate warning signs.

  • German lab confirms bird flu in cat!!!
  • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4758632.stm

    peaks vist uue teema algatama!
  • dol, milleks - https://www.lhv.ee/forums/index.cfm?id=106450
  • to winger

    tänud....silmad on juba töntsiks jäänud!

    TV 3 uudistes teatati, et Saksamaal leiti surnud kass kellel oli linnugripp.

    ....ju oli siis linnu ära söönud!
  • dol, juhin su tähelepanu sellele, et Türgis mõned kuud tagasi mõned inimesed surid linnugrippi või siis said terveks linnugripist. Teatavasti inimene on ka imetaja. Kass ees või taga ei muuda asja, pigem see, et see on nagu "tsiviliseeritud" riigi esimene imetaja-ohver.
  • > A United States federal judge has approved a $1.43-billion deal (SFr1.88 billion)
    > that settles long-running asbestos litigation against the ABB engineering group
    >
    > Claimants still have 30 days to lodge objections to the decision, but the vast majority
    > have already signalled their acceptance of the cash and shares offer

    Mitte, et see juba hinnas sees poleks olnud, aga parem tunne ikkagi :)

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