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  • Gaming the Fed

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/10/2006 8:50 AM EDT
      

    "Decisiveness is a characteristic of high-performing men and women. Almost any decision is better than no decision at all."

    -- Brian Tracy
      
     
    Although the Fed is likely to be very decisive about raising interest rates a quarter point for the sixteenth straight time, the decisiveness is likely to end there. Market participants would love to have some clarity about where interest rates are headed over the next few months, but unfortunately not even the Fed knows.

    Market participants are hopeful that Bernanke's comments during his Congressional testimony about a possible pause in rate hikes might find its way into today's policy statement. However, if it does we should expect some very strong language that a pause does not preclude further hikes.

    There really isn't any great mystery about the Fed's approach right now. It wants to consider forthcoming economic data and doesn't want to lock itself into any particular approach. Market participants who want clarity simply aren't going to get it, and it is just downright silly to expect it.

    So where does this leave the market? Is the market likely to be disappointed by a lack of FOMC clarity? Or will the bulls become overly excited and drive us up if there is talk about a possible pause? I believe the likelihood is that the Fed will be sufficiently vague, and we'll end up with uncertainty and some quick swings.

    Cisco did a nice job of sandbagging the after-hours players who jumped in on the strong-looking headlines only to learn that much of the strength was due to a tax reduction rather than operational excellence. After trading up $1 last night the stock is set to open down this morning. The technology sector remains in disarray but you have to wonder at what point the poor news flow will be completely discounted

  • Varem juba juttu olnud Sina(SINA) sai Citigroup’ilt upgrade’i ja on nüüd soovitusega ‘Hoia’ varasema ‘Müü’ asemel.

    LHV enimkaubeldud aktsiate hulgast vahel läbi jooksnud Ivanhoe Energy(IVAN) teatas 1. kvartali kahjumist 2 senti aktsia kohta. Eelmise aasta sama kvartali kaotus oli 4 senti aktsia kohta. Müügitulu tõusis 14% ja oli $9.9 miljonit.

    Fed on alustanud ka juba oma intressimäära muutmise arutamise kohtumist. Oodatakse 25 baaspunktilist tõstmist. Turuosalised jälgivad väga tähelepanelikult Fedi sõnastust ja et kas fraas “mõningane intressimäära poliitika karmistamine võib olla vajalik” eemaldatakse aruandest või mitte.
  • Analysts believe Crude Oil Inventories fell 575K barrels during the week ending May 6th; refineries operated at ~89.6%, compared to 91.8% from prior year period; Analysts believe distillate fuel inventories fell 300K barrels and gasoline inventories rose 1.0 mln barrels (range is from a fall of 1.2 mln to a gain of 2.5 mln barrels).
  • Toornafta varud aga hoopis tõusid 272 000 barreli võrra....USA toornafta varud on kõrgeimal tasemel peale 29. maid 1998. aastal. Mootorkütuste varud tõusid 2.34 miljonit barrelit. Distillaadid tõusid 170 000 barrelit.
  • Föderaalreserv otsustas intresse tõsta 25 baaspunkti võrra ja intressimäär on nüüd 5,0%. Samuti lisab, et 'mõningane intressimäära poliitika karmistamine võib olla vajalik'. Föderaalreservi sõnul majanduskasv jätkusuutlik(sustainable) ja inflatsioon ohjes(contained).
  • Turule Fedi sõnavõtt väga meeltmööda ei olnud, suuremasse langusesse pöörasid tehnoloogiasektori aktsiad, kuid ka laiapõhjaline S&P 500 on 0,5% miinuses.

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