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  • Don't Be Held Hostage to Loser Stocks

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/24/2006 9:17 AM EDT

    "Self-preservation, nature's first great law, all the creatures, except man, doth awe."

    -- Andrew Marvell
      
     
    In a free-falling market, many market participants forget that their top priority isn't to make money -- it's to protect their capital. You have to stay in the game to have any chance of producing profits. Unlike in baseball, if you swing for the fences and strike out, you are at a major disadvantage because you have to make up your losses before you can make further advances.

    One of the great dilemmas of a market meltdown is whether to hold on to stocks that are falling apart because we are convinced they have a bright future, or to sell and protect our capital and look to reenter at a future date. The decision is a much more difficult one in practice than in theory.

    Quite often we don't sell when a stock first begins to pull back, and then as it falls further we tell ourselves it's too late to sell and we might as well hold on and simply wait for it to recover. This can be a source of great anguish, particularly when the market plummets for days at a time with only brief bounces.

    When I find myself stuck in a downtrending stock I am often better off selling and taking my loss, and then looking for a different stock in which to try to recoup my money. Quite often the stock I was holding on to is not going to be the best-performing stock once the market turns around. A stock that was initially promising but disappoints often carries a lot of emotional baggage, and it's hard to do anything other than stand around as losses mount. It can be very tough to escape that condition -- but amazingly refreshing when we do.

    Investors often overlook how selling a stock that is a thorn in your side can free you up for better results in the days ahead. The market will always have great opportunities for us if we have capital and aren't buried with stocks with big losses. Focus on self-preservation in this tough market and the money-making opportunities will take care of themselves.

    The market has bounced back from some surprisingly intense selling right after the bell last night. I'm not sure exactly, but I believe the reason was a combination of a big sell order, bird-flu news, and fear that the intraday reversal would lead to pervasive weakness overseas. In any event, things look much better this morning, although we are still below the closing levels of last night. The durable goods data was soft and that is boosting the bond market; it is seen as "market friendly" because it's anti-inflationary, but it is a volatile number and may be simply a reflection of choppy orders in the aerospace business.

  • Microsoft(MSFT) teatas kolmapäeval, et tarbija versiooni Windows Vista, mis on ettevõtte uus operatsiooni süsteem, turule toomine võib venida kaugemale, kui varem teatatud jaanuar 2007. Algselt oli üldse plaanis Windows Vista juba see aasta turule tuua, kuid märtsis teatati, et enne jaanuarit selleni ei jõuta. Eilse teatega lükkub massiline turuletulek aga veelgi kaugemale.

    AmTech andis täna kogu pooljuhtide sektorile downgrade’i ja nendepoolne soovitus on ‘Equal Weight’. Peapõhjuseks on nõudlus, mis jääb limiteerituks suvekuudel. AmTech usub, et pooljuhtide vastu ei hakata taas huvi tundma enne kui leitakse stabiilsus intressimäärades, energia- ja kaubaartiklite hindades.

    Samas AmTech suhtub positiivselt ikka veel personaalarvutitega tegelejatesse ning kinnitab oma ‘osta’-soovitust Inteli (INTC), ADV Micro Devices(AMD) ja Micron Technology(MU) kohta.
  • Uute majade müük 1.198 miljonit oodatud 1.135 miljoni vastu.
  • Oskab keegi öelda, kus ma saan NYSE-l listid aktsiate aktsiaraamatud näha?
    Ei ole õnne otsimisega.
  • Finance.yahoo.com annab sellise võimaluse nagu Order Book Peale sümboli sisestamist valida Real Time ECN ning siis on üleval peal Real Tinme ECN/Order Book.
  • Tänane börsipäev kisub samuti väga inetu lõpu poole, kui eile aitas turu stabiliseerumisele USA-s kaasa toorainesektori tõus, siis täna on taas probleemiks vedava sektori puudumine. Pangandussektor on löögi all, maavarad samuti (kuld 4,8% miinuses), vaevalises plussis on internetisektor, kuid turu päästjat sellest vaevalt on. Seega tundub, et uued põhjad vajavad testimist ning arenevatele turgudele ning Euroopale USA nõrkus (võimetus põhja leida) hästi ei mõju.
  • Päeva lõpp võib teel huvitav tulla. Liiga vara vist hakati tampima. Milliseks kujuneb homne börsipäev, kui lõpetatakse näiteks protsendiga plussis? Pakuks, et tuleb põrge.
  • Praegust turuliikumist tuleks lugeda skisofreeniliseks, kord üles kord alla ning kaubelda sellisel turul on väga raske. Närvilisust ilmestab ka turu käive, 50 min enne sulgumist on NYSE käive jõudnud 2,43 miljardi aktsiani, täna võidakse ületada 3 miljardi aktsia piir.
  • AMTech poolt INTC ostusoovituse kommentaariks:

    Intel

    Intel reported its first-quarter results in April and they were awful …

    The company earned $0.23, exactly what Wall Street expected. No problem, right? Well, anyone who took the time to read the fine print would have seen a virtual dumpster of weak data.

    Here’s a very telling statement from Intel CEO Paul Otellini:

    “We believe PC growth rates have moderated over the course of the past few quarters, leading to slower chip-level inventory reductions at our customers and affecting our revenue in the first half of the year.”

    Let me cut through the corporate-speak for you: Intel’s business is slowing. Just look at the signs:

    Slowdown sign #1: At the beginning of the year, Intel bragged that it would increase its revenues by 6% to 9% in 2006. Wrong! Intel now says that its revenues will drop by 3% in 2006!

    Slowdown sign #2: Intel’s per-share profit of $0.23 translates into $1.3 billion. That sounds like a lot ... until you realize that it’s 38% less than the company made in the same quarter of 2005.

    Slowdown sign #3: Intel said its second-quarter revenue would be between $8 billion and $8.6 billion – that’s way below the Wall Street’s forecast of $8.85 billion.

    Slowdown sign #4: Intel announced that it would cut its capital and R&D spending by more than $1 billion in the second half of the year. When a company cuts costs, that usually means it expects business to slow.

    Slowdown sign #5: Just last Thursday, when Dell posted a dismal drop in first quarter earnings, the company also announced that it would begin using AMD processors in some of its high-end servers. In other words, Intel just saw some of its business evaporate.


  • Eelmise kommentaari autor on Weiss Researchi analüütik Tony Sagami. Loodetavasti ta ei pahanda väga...
  • Turud on tõesti pöörased. Nõrkust see küll ei peegelda. Tundub nagu raputatakse maha veel viimased müüjad.

    "This trend is worrisome because you see most of your serious buying and selling at the end of the day -- because you have to live with your decisions overnight," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards.
    "In the morning you have the whole day to change your mind," he said. "Then, in the final hour of trade, you can say, 'Oops,' and get out.
  • Täna oleks oodanud siiski veel viimast sell-offi tugeva käibega, siis oleks võinud põrkes enam-vähem kindel olla. Praegu ei liha ega kala. Pigem surve allapoole.
  • väga suure käibega positiivne lõpp - kas see ei ole hea märk ?
  • AloV,

    tegelt ma pidasin silma aktsiaraamatut .e. palju keegi konkreetset aktsiat omab. Yahoos on see "Major holders", ainult et seal on andmed 2-3 kuud vanad (Intsitutionals & mutual funds).
    T+3 täpsusega andmeid ei ole saadaval?

    Jutt käib NYSEst.

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