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  • Put the Pundits on Pause

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/21/2006 9:01 AM EDT

    "The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word 'crisis.' One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity. In a crisis, be aware of the danger, but recognize the opportunity."

    -- John F. Kennedy

    One of the great ironies of the market is that the poorer the action and the more dangerous things look, the closer we are getting to some good opportunities. The chorus of voices predicting a worldwide economic crisis and a market meltdown is becoming louder every day. There is worry, danger and despair in the air.
      
     
    Although this gloom can make for some tough slogging, the flickering light at the end of the tunnel is that it will lead to better opportunities at some point. It is inevitable. The market will absolutely, positively improve at some point. I guarantee it.

    The problem with the inevitability of a better market is that trying to time when it will occur is tremendously difficult. Market players come up with all sorts of ways to try to measure turning points, but no one has ever been able to time the turns consistently. Sometimes someone makes a lucky guess and nails the turn but I suspect that the time and money and energy that are expended in such efforts could be better used in other ways.

    Catching the exact point of the market turn simply isn't that valuable when it comes to making money in the market. The much more worthwhile course of behavior is being mentally, emotionally and financially prepared to act aggressively because crisis inevitably leads to opportunities.

    The best thing market participants can do right now is forget the endless debates that are taking place over the long-term future of the market. The one thing we know for sure is that at present the action is extremely poor. There is no reason to fight that or even spend much time contemplating when it might end. It will eventually come to an end and that is when we must be ready to become engaged and go to work.

    The mindset I cultivate at a time like this is to appreciate and respect the fact that the market is acting poorly while staying positive and optimistic that it won't last forever and that some very profitable opportunities will eventually develop. The promise of the future makes the current dreary action tolerable.

    We have a flat start on the way. The news flow is slow, overseas markets were mixed to negative and oil and gold remain under pressure.

  • Täna kirjutan pisut teise nurga alt. Silma jäi Bloombergi all öeldu, mida siinkohal lühidalt vahendan:

    Aktsiad on üldjoones viimase kuue nädala jooksul langenud pea üle maailma. Põhjuseks ikka asjaolu, et kõrgemad intressimäärad kahjustavad majanduskasvu. Keskpangad Taanis, Indias, Koreas, Lõuna-Aafrikas, Tais, Türgis, Sri Lankal, Rootsis ja Šveitsis on kõik tõstnud intressimäärasid sel kuul. Eelmisel nädalal suurendas Hiina raha koguse suurust, mida laenajad peavad reservina hoidma, üritades omapoolselt majandust jahutada.

    Bloombergile andsid aru mitmed fondijuhid ja üldiselt jäi kõlama sõna ‘ettevaatlikkus’. Näiteks Robert Halveri, kes aitab hallata $48 miljardit Vontobel Asset Management’is Frankfurdis, nägemus oli järgmine: “Korrektsioon jätkub. Me näeme madalamaid aktsiahindu, aga see jälle loob mõningaid huvitavaid sisenemiskohti”.

    Hoidkem meeles siis, et Euroopa Keskpank tõstis omi intresse 8. juunil 2.75% peale ja üldiselt oodatakse, et aasta lõpuks on intressid 3.25% tasemel. USA intressiotsus tuleb 29. juunil, kusjuures hetkel siis 0,25%-line tõus ehk 17. järjestikune tõstmine on igati oodatud.

    Lisaks:

    Ford ei pruugi täita oma eesmärki ja jõuda 2008. aastal Põhja-Ameerikas kasumisse. Väitega tulid välja salapärased Fordi ametnikud, kes ei olnud nõus laskma ennast identifitseerida. Peapõhjuseks siinjuures vähenevad müüginumbrid SUV-de juures. Kõrgemad kütusehinnad vähendavad nõudlust SUV-de järgi. Dan Poole, kes aitab hallata £34 miljardi dollari suurust fondi väidab aga, et palju suurem üllatus oleks, kui ettevõte tõesti suudaks oma kasumlikkuse eesmärgi täita ja et palju halbu uudiseid on juba aktsiahinda sisse arvestatud.

    Pikemalt saab inglise keelsest artiklist Fordi kohta lugeda siin:

    http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a8GHp8c1Byw8&refer=home
  • Vastuseks anonüümsetele Fordi ametnikele ja Bloombergis ilmunule on Ford välja tulnud pressiteatega, kus Mark Fields(Fordi president Ameerika osakonnas) väidab, et jaanuaris vastu võetud plaanile saavutada kasumlikkus Põhja-Ameerikas 2008. aastaks ollakse ikka veel väga truud.

    Pikemalt juba siin:

    Link
  • USA naftavarude muutus: bensiinivarud kerkisid nädalaga 294 000 barreli võrra (oodati 1,5 mln kasvu), naftavarud kerkisid 1,39 mln barrelit, oodati 500 000 barrelist kasvu. Nafta hind reageerinud esialgu tõusuga.
  • Esmasele positiivsele reaktsioonile naftaturul 70 dollari taset testima ei mindud (Briefing leidis et selle taseme murdmisel võib tulla shortide pigistamist/shortide katmist), barreli hind taas enne statistika avaldamise tasemel.
  • ENCY LHV enimkaubeldud aktsiate esireas, hommikune uudis:

    Encysive Pharmaceuticals Announces Presentation of New STRIDE-2X Data at EULAR Congress
    Thursday June 22, 5:02 am ET
    HOUSTON, June 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Encysive Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ENCY - News) today announced the presentation of new STRIDE-2X data evaluating Thelin(TM) (sitaxsentan sodium) in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) at the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Annual European Congress of Rheumatology in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. STRIDE-2X is the open-label, one-year extension study for the Company's 18-week placebo- controlled Phase III pivotal trial, STRIDE-2.

    Ja nädalavanune The Street:
    Encysive (ENCY:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) keeps bouncing back.

    After suffering a huge blow this spring, the biotech company has received a second round of good news about its most promising drug. The company announced on Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration will conduct a speedy "Class 1" review of Thelin, its new treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension, and could decide on the drug's approval by the end of July.
    The FDA's action comes about a week after European officials recommended approval of Thelin over there.
    Encysive Pharmaceuticals (ENCY:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) looks like it overplayed its hand.

    Ning The Street 27. märts:
    Prior to a bombshell announcement this weekend, the company had managed to convince investors that approval of Thelin -- its new drug for pulmonary arterial hypertension -- was essentially a sure thing. Instead, the company now faces a delayed launch of Thelin at best. Without sharing any major details, Encysive disclosed Friday night that the Food and Drug Administration has asked for more information about Thelin -- including additional clinical trial work -- before it can approve the new PAH drug.
    Shares of Encysive plummeted 46% to a multiyear low of $4.94 on the report.

    FDA otsuseni mäng?





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