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  • Avoiding Losses Is the Best Defensive Play

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/28/2006 9:08 AM EDT
      

    It still holds true that man is most uniquely human when he turns obstacles into opportunities -- Eric Hoffer
      
     
    Market participants are faced with a host of obstacles at present. The most daunting and difficult one is the anxiety over the upcoming FOMC interest rate announcement. Even though many investors don't expect anything positive or surprising, there is little desire to take action before this news is out. Inflation and the rise of worldwide interest rates are obviously a major problem for the market right now and that means the Fed decision carries even more weight than usual this time.

    At this point, our job as investors is to continue to search for opportunities. That doesn't mean forcing trades where the odds are poor. If we can't find opportunities, then we stay patient and wait for them to develop. Quite often, success in the market is nothing more than avoiding poor action when the odds are not in our favor.

    Investors often overlook the profound impact that the avoidance of losses during tough times can have on their returns. Losses not only have to be made up, but they impair the ability to more quickly compound returns. Not having to recoup a 10% drawdown is a huge advantage.

    In a market like this -- one that is waiting for significant news -- our primary goal should be to make sure we keep our capital intact and not incur losses we will have to make up when conditions are better. If we can find some good opportunities, that's great, but we should be more concerned about defense right now.

    The most significant thing about this market environment is the degree and pervasiveness of the macro economic gloom out there. There seems to be very few who see a light at the end of the tunnel. Eventually this atmosphere will give way to better upside trading, but trying to fight it is a good way to see your account erode. Keep that capital intact. The opportunities will come, and if you don't have to make up losses, you will be far ahead of the game.

    It is likely to be another difficult day of trading. Stay patient and don't read too much into the action today. It's all just minor positioning in front of the Fed. We have a slightly positive start this morning. Overseas markets struggled and there isn't much news on the wires.

  • Täna annan lühiülevaate, kuidas AmTech kommenteeris kahe USA suure ettevõtte Marvell(MRVL) ja Apple Computeri(AAPL) tegemisi:

    AmTech kommenteeris Marvelli eilset Inteli divisjoni ostu. Põhimureks on just selle tehingu lahjendav (dilutive) mõju. Samas, AmTech usub, et see mõju pole kuigi suur ning võtab 2007. aasta tulemustest ära 6 senti ja 2008. aasta tulemustest 10 kuni 20 senti. Lähimuredest hoolimata meeldib neile antud tehinguga saadavad pikaajalised plussid. See kiirendab Marvelli sisenemist kiiresti kasvavasse ‘smart phone’ ja mobiilse tarbeelektroonika turgu. Kõigest hoolimata vähendavad nad oma hinnasihti $65 peale varasemalt $80, kajastamaks kõrgenenud riski.

    Ettevõte vähendab ka Broadcomi(BRCM) hinnasihti, sest nad vaatavad Marvelli tehingut kui veidi negatiivset sündmust konkurentsi tihenemises ‘wireless’ turul.

    Apple’i koha pealt vähendab ettevõte samuti hinnasihti sedakorda $75 peale varasema $101 pealt. Peamiseks põhjuseks on mured, et Apple’i uued tooted(uued nanod ja laiekraaniga vPod) jäävad praeguse turuletoomise planeeritud ajast hiljemaks. Laiekraaniga vPodi põhiprobleemiks on lühike patarei elu ja selle probleemi lahendamine võib toote turule toomise lükata 2007. aasta esimesse poolde varasema plaanitud 2006. aasta 4. kvartaliga võreldes.

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