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Börsipäev 13. oktoober

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  • Prudential on täna retailerite kallal. Enamus calle non event, kuid ilmselt hea teada:

    Prudential initiates Costco (COST 53.90) with an Underweight and $45 tgt, based on its business model, razor-thin profit margins and valuation...

    Prudential initiates Target (TGT 59.64) with an Overweight and $68 tgt, based on the co's implementation of a merchandising and advertising strategy that has attracted young and trendy customers...

    Prudential initiates Lowe's (LOW 31.08) with a Neutral and $30 tgt, as they favor valuation yet remain hard pressed to come up with a catalyst that will move shares higher at the current juncture, given the difficult macroeconomic environment

    Prudential initiates Wal-Mart (WMT 48.32) with a Neutral and $50 tgt, as they believe the co has been expanding U.S. retail square footage at an unsustainable pace in recent years, while macroeconomic headwinds are currently putting pressure on existing-store sales

    Prudential initiates Home Depot (HD 37.90) with an Underweight and $35 tgt, as they beleive shares will continue to be under pressure based on a declining housing market, a tough competitor gaining market share in the foreground, and slowing growth issues related to store saturation in its core U.S. market

    Deutsche Bank initiates Centex (CTX 55.09) with a Buy and $67 tgt, based on their view that its lesser degree of exposure to high-risk markets should make its earnings more resilient than other builders

    BofA initiates Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH 45.62) with a Buy and $52 tgt, based on the impressive outlook for the global Calvin Klein licensing business, as well as momentum in men's Calvin Klein sportswear and continued growth of CK outlets that should continue to result in EPS upside

    Oppenheimer initiates NDS Group plc (NNDS 42.49) with a Buy and $55 tgt, as the expect the co to benefit from the increased competition for the consumer by cable, telco and satellite

    Thomas Weisel downgrades Yahoo (YHOO 24.12) to Peer Perform from Outperform, as they believe consensus estimates are too high for 2007

  • GE General Electric tuli välja suhteliselt oodatud tulemustega:

    Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.49 per share, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.49; revenues rose 12.3% year/year to $40.86 bln vs the $39.8 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY06, sees EPS of $1.97-1.99 vs. $1.98 consensus.
  • GE marginaalid paistavad olevat natuke nõrgad ja seega tulemuste kvaliteet tuleb alla. Eriti arvestades viimase aja tõusu.
  • Retail sale -0.4%. Negatiivne süpriis.
  • Kvartalitulemuste avaldajatest üks tähtsaim oli täna kindlasti General Electric(GE). Tulemused tulid ootustele vastavad ning ka ettevõtte poolt tehtud prognoos(EPS $1.97-1.99) 2006. fiskaalaasta kasumi kohta vastas ootustele(EPS $1.98).

    Majandusstatistika koha pealt tuleb kindlasti välja tuua jaemüüginumbrid(retail sales):
    Nagu 'kal' juba välja tõi, langes jaemüük -0.4% vs +0.2% konsensus
    Jaemüük, jättes välja autod, langes -0.5% vs +/-0.0% konsensus

    Arvestades veel hiljutist rallit jaemüüjate sektoris(vaata nt RTH), siis need numbrid on küll selgeks pettumuseks.

    Naftasektorile aitab täna kaasa Norrast tulevad teated, kus 10% riigi naftatoodangust (ehk 283, 000 barrelit päevas) ajutiselt kinni pandi. Põhjuseks turvatingimused, mida puurtornid pole suutnud täita. Testide käigus selgus, et ühte tüüpi päästepaadid polnud piisavalt tugevad, et neid saaks reaalselt kasutada hädaohu korral platvormist allalaskmiseks. Tegu Statoili ja Shelli poolt opereeritavate naftaplatvormidega. 

    Briefing’ust jäi silma veel üks uudiskild, mis puudutab pisut ka Eestit - nimelt Venemaa peatab elektri ekspordi Ukrainasse, Gruusiasse ja Balti riikidesse. Samuti teatab Bloomberg, et Venemaa kavatseb ka talvel vaid miinimumkoguse elektrit(power) eksportida.

  • No siis keeratakse kogu Jaanilinn kinni. Minuarust tarbib Narvatagune just meie elektrit?
  • Täna jäid veel kaks huvitavat kommentaari silma. Viimane RIMMi kohta on eriti huvitav, kuna usun, et aktsia teeb lähiajal läbi korrektsiooni.

    Banc of America expects Valero (VLO 52.15) to lead the group higher as margins continue a near $4/bl rise over the past two weeks. They expect VLO to meet the lower end of its recent 3Q guidance of 2.25-2.35/share and have raised their est to 2.25/share (consensus $2.32). Although they expect the group to recover due to the improving margin environment, this guidance gives VLO the least risk and downside to current ests allowing increased confidence to buy

    Morgan Keegan notes that T-Mobile announced that it will launch DASH, a Qwerty keyboard smartphone, designed and made by HTC, beginning on Oct 25. The price point will be $199, will include Windows Mobile operating system, and has a form factor very similar to the Motorola "Q". Firm doubts that DASH will have a substantial impact on Research in Motion's (RIMM 111.03) Blackberry Pearl sales, but it does show that $199 is clearly the new price point for smartphones

  • Venemaa ei tohiks Eestisse elektrit eksportida, pigem on ta olnud importija rollis ( põlevkivi Eestisse, elekter Venemaale), ühise energiavõrgu osa oleme siiski ja sealt lahtirakendamine läheks raskeks.
  • Kommentaar tänasele päevale Sharki poolt.

    That Irresistible Top-Calling Game

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/13/2006 8:53 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed, in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a wide-spread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible"

    -- Bertrand Russell

    As the market climbs straight up in the stratosphere, one of the more popular games played by the bearish cognoscenti is trying to determine when "everyone" is so universally bullish that we can no longer go up anymore. The thinking is that when everyone is in complete agreement about how wonderful the market is, they will have used up all their buying power and there will be nothing left to drive things higher.

    It is a very intriguing game that is quite hard to resist. We all like to think we can "game" a market that is going straight up. We just know that the senseless sheep who indiscriminately chase stocks that are making parabolic moves are going to suffer for their behavior so we look for ways to determine when that will happen. A method that uses the majority opinion to bet against them is almost irrestible.

    I have to admit to being attracted to this game myself. Markets that go up as strongly as this one has always do correct eventually. If you pay attention to the market all day like I do it's almost impossible to not trying to predict a top. After a day like yesterday, when the final hour felt like panic buying, it is extremely difficult to not start thinking about how things might end.

    As I've said many times in the past, trying to logically figure out turning points is almost impossible because the market is not a logical beast. Much of the data we use, such as sentiment, untapped buying power and levels of short interest, are not easily measured and if they are, there are always reasons for things beyond just simple bullish or bearish feelings about the market.

    Although it is a good idea not to get caught in the top-calling game, that doesn't mean you don't take note of how far and fast the major indices have come. My methodology has always been to take some partial profits into strength. It isn't a matter of timing but simply prudent money management. Although we can't predict when a rally will end, we do know with great certainty that markets that go up always come back down at some point.

    As the market continues its march I can't help but wonder what is going to happen during earnings season. For example, recent analyst comments on Intel have been rather negative but the stock moved up nicely again yesterday. Earnings are due out next Wednesday and I wonder if folks will want to buy more of a stock that has already moved up big if the report is merely in-line, as the analysts expect. We never can know what investors think and feel but it's hard to imagine that a certain amount of positive news has not been priced in there.

    This morning General Electric earnings and guidance are mostly in-line and are being greeted with a yawn and a minor tick down. Retail sales numbers for September are a little weaker than expected but aren't generating any major reaction at the moment. We'll have to watch the retail sector closely today because it's been one of the leaders lately based on the premise that lower gasoline prices are boosting the consumer. Overseas markets performed well over night, oil is trading up and snow in Buffalo is probably boosting natural gas prices. We have a flat open on the way.

    At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
  • Venemaa elektrivõrku kasutatakse osaliselt tipuvõimsuste kompenseerimiseks.
  • Ammu pole nii bullish calli lugenud:

    RL Polo Ralph Lauren: Walked away from meetings thinking this will be a $90 stock in two years - Prudential (67.08 )

    Prudential notes they hosted the management team of RL in Paris, and says mgmt highlighted the successful strategy that has propelled and should continue to propel sales and margin growth. They believe the multiple may fluctuate with consumer concerns and the investment trend du jour, but earnings growth is accelerating and they think the earnings power of this co is significant. They walked away from their meetings thinking this will be a $90 stock in two years. Firm raised their tgt to $78 from $74.
  • Kui Venemaa ühendab otsad lahti siis võib 50Hz hoidmisega raskusi tekkida või aitab meid siis see kaabel mis merre pandi...!
  • see merekaabel käib alalisvooluga, aga võib inverteerida vahelduvpinget mõlemal poolel - nii olen kuulnud.
  • Järgmise nädala tulemustekalender

    Esmaspäev, 

    16. oktoober

    9:30 a.m.CBHCommerce Bancorp
    10 a.m.WBWachovia

    Teisipäev,

    17. oktoober

    8:30 a.m.EMCEMC
    8:30 a.m.JNJJohnson & Johnson
    9:30 a.m.UTXUnited Technologies
    10 a.m.MERMerrill Lynch
    10 a.m.SSPE.W. Scripps
    10 a.m.SONCSonic
    4:30 p.m.IBMIBM
    5 p.m.MOTMotorola
    5 p.m.YHOOYahoo!
    5:30 p.m.INTCIntel

    Kolmapäev, 

    18. oktoober

    8:30 a.m.GDGeneral Dynamics
    8:30 a.m.STJSt. Jude Medical
    9 a.m.ABTAbbott Labs
    9 a.m.JPMJPMorgan Chase
    4:30 p.m.BSXBoston Scientific
    4:45 p.m.CTXSCitrix Systems
    4:45 p.m.JNPRJuniper Networks
    5 p.m.AMLNAmylin Pharmaceuticals
    5 p.m.AAPLApple Computer
    5 p.m.EBAYeBay
    5 p.m.WMWashington Mutual

    Neljapäev,

    19. oktoober

    8 a.m.KOCoca-Cola
    8 a.m.NOKNokia
    8:45 a.m.UNHUnited Health
    9 a.m.TRBTribune
    9 a.m.WYEWyeth
    9:30 a.m.BACBank of America
    10 a.m.DJDow Jones
    11 a.m.CCitigroup
    11 a.m.NYTNew York Times
    11 a.m.CYPCypress Semiconductor
    11 a.m.NYTNew York Times
    11:30 a.m.MCDMcDonald's
    4:30 p.m.GOOGGoogle
    4:45 p.m.BRCMBroadcom
    5 p.m.SNDKSanDisk
    5 p.m.XLNXXilinx

    Reede,

    20. oktoober

    8 a.m.SGPSchering-Plough
    9 a.m.MMM3M
    9 a.m.MRKMerck
    9 a.m.SLBSchlumberger
    11 a.m.CATCaterpillar
  • Hawailt tuleb teateid tugeva maavärina kohta. USA idaranniku aja järgi pühapäeval kell 13.07 (ehk Eesti aja järgi kell 20.07) toimus Hawail 6,3 magnituudiline maavärin Richteri skaala järgi. Sellele järgnes veel mitmeid tugevaid järeltõukeid - üks neist koguni 5,8 palli suurune.

    Vaikse Ookeani piirkonnale otsest tsunaamiohtu ei nähta, küll aga võib oodata tugevamaid laineid Hawaii enda rannikul.

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