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Börsipäev 24. oktoober

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  • Peale eilseid Texas Instrumentsi tulemusi, mis kinnitasid rasket olukorda pooljuhtide sektoris, on futuurid näitamaspunast päevaalgust.

    Toon välja terve Keybanci kommentaari REITide kohta. Minu arust päris kulne call, arvestades positiivsust sektoris. Mõneda astad tagasi kirjutasin sektorist ka LHV lehel. Tol ajal kauplesid aktsiad minu mäletamist mööda ca 5-10x EBITDA,10x FFO ja div yield ulatus 15% tasemeni. Tänane situatsioon on hoopis teistsugune. Aktsiad kauplevad 30x EBITDA,15-20x FFO ja div yeld ca 3-4x madalam. Valuatsioonid on kõrged, tulevikuväljavaated erinevates sektori segmentides mitte nii head kui mõni aeg tagasi:

    Keybanc initiates coverage of 25 office, mixed office/industrial, apartment and health care REITs. In 2007, they expect REIT shares will deliver a 0-5% total return, reflecting flat to negative 5% share prices and a 3.7% dividend yield.Firm believes REIT shares will hold steady or perhaps move up slightly in the near term, but that valuation and return pressures will begin to erode share prices later in the year. Firm prefer office and health care REITs to multifamily and mixed office/industrial companies. Their favorite names are BioMed (BMR), Digital Realty (DLR), Mack-Cali (CLI), American Campus (ACC) and United Dominion (UDR). Their least favorite names include: Boston Properties (BXP), Parkway Properties (PKY), PS Business Parks (PSB) and Post Properties (PPS). Keybanc inititaes Archstone-Smith Trust (ASN 59.00) tgt $61, United Dominion Realty Trust (UDR 31.92) tgt $33, American Campus Communities (ACC 26.93) tgt $28, Mack-Cali (CLI 51.74) tgt $55, Maguire Properties (MPG 42.40) tgt $44, Nationwide Health Properties (NHP 28.06) tgt $29, Digital Realty Trust (DLR 33.74) tgt $35, Ventas (VTR 38.87) tgt $40, and Cogdell Spencer (CSA 21.50) tgt $22 with Buys. The firm also initiates Post Properties (PPS 49.99) tgt $44, P.S Business Parks (PSB 63.50) tgt $55, Parkway Properties (PKY 49.70) tgt $44, and Boston Properties (BXP 105.83) tgt $96, with Underweights.

    Siia otsa kohe:

    JP Morgan downgrades New Century Financial (NEW 38.08) to Underweight from Overweight

    H.C. Wainwright initiates Avalon Pharmaceuticals (AVRX 3.27) with a Strong Buy and $7 tgt, based on an optimistic outlook for AVN944 and healthy corporate partnership acitivity.

    UBS downgrades Anheuser-Busch (BUD 47.59) to Reduce from Neutral

    Citigroup downgrades Kimberly-Clark (KMB 67.19) to Sell from Hold

    UBS downgrades Pfizer (PFE 27.73) to Neutral from Buy

    Goldman upgrades Ford Motor (F 1.90) to Neutral from Sell and removes them from their Least Favorite list

    First Albany downgrades Business Objects (BOBJ 34.59) to Buy from Strong Buy and $34 tgt

    Morgan Stanley upgrades Arch Coal (ACI 32.44) to Overweight from Equal Weight

    U.S Energy Stocks raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at UBS

    Wachovia downgrades the Trucking Sector to Underweight as they currently see more risk than reward in these stocks in the near-to-intermediate term.

    Jefferies raises Netflix (NFLX 23.08) tgt to $32 from $30, based on an increase in FY06 guidance

    U.S Health-Care stocks downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at UBS

    Mis valguses paistab HPQ peale LXK kommentaare? LXK Lexmark reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.95 per share, excluding restructuring items & including option expense, $0.16 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.79; revenues rose 1.6% year/year to $1.24 bln vs the $1.2 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.80-0.90 vs. $0.91 consensus.

    BUCY tulemused lühidalt, peegeldades jätkuvalt seda, mida on öelnud CAT: BUCY Bucyrus reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.53 per share, $0.04 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.57;revenues rose 17.5% year/year to $185 mln vs the $194.7 mln consensus. 

  • Ise nautisin eilset Sharki järelturu kommentaari. Kahe lausega kokku võetuna rõhutas, et kuigi suured ettevõtted olid kenasti plussis, ei olnud väiksemate aktsiate puhul pilt üldse nii roosiline – samas, kaua n-ö elevandid veel lennata saavad, seadis ta kahtluse alla. Breadth polnud ilus, IWMi liikumine pettumus.

    Täna rõhutab ta aga, et enne kui oleks aeg agressiivsemalt langusele panustada, peab selleks olema head argumendid või siis tuleks selleks oodata selgeid märke turult.

    Ignore the Negative Natterings
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/24/2006 9:04 AM EDT

    "No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking."

    -- Voltaire

    The question at the heart of this market is whether this rally can be sustained for much longer. There have already been countless frustrations and losses incurred by those who have harbored doubts and were reckless enough to act on them. This is a market that doesn't much care what anyone thinks. It is only what the masses are feeling that is important and what they are feeling is pretty darn good.

    What always happens when we have a rally like this is that none of the negatives matter for quite a while. We hear all of those compelling bearish arguments and they are shrugged off as irrelevant and a waste of time. The market is going up and it seems downright foolish to forego the chance to make money due to some intellectual arguments by those who probably have missed out the rally. They have an agenda and obviously aren't smart enough to make money while things are good, so why should we listen to them?

    Eventually this market, like all other markets, will turn and those negative arguments will suddenly sound much more coherent. It isn't until there is some hard proof in front of us that the negative arguments will really start to matter. Nattering about inflation or the economy and the negative impact they will have on the market at some point isn't very helpful until we actually reach that point. Sure, we should pay attention to macro arguments but sustained negative thinking doesn't work until there actually are some facts in the form of lower prices to back it up.
    ----------
    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: RADN -11%, ZRAN -10% (pre-announces Q3 results), TLAB -7.7%, JDAS -6.2%, LVLT -6.1%, DSPG -7.5%, BUCY -5.6%, DXCM -5.1%, KFT -4.5%, ROK -3.5% (also Deutsche downgrade), VPRT -3.4%, AMTD -3.4%... Other News: MSCC -7.3% (to acquire PDSN), ARNA -2.4% (AG Edwards downgrade), BOBJ -1.5% (First Albany downgrade).

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: TZOO +22%, UCTT +18%, NFLX +18%, SILC +16%, PDSN +7.8% (also being acquired by MSCC), MTXX +7.6%, ALA +6.2%, LCAV +6%, ARTG +6%, PTV +5.5%, UTHR +5.3% (guidance only), COH +3.9%, LMT +3.8%, DD +3.5%, NATI +2.9%, AMGN +2.6%, VLTR +2.6%, FSH +2.2%, WU +1.9%, SII +1.8%, GRP +1.6%.... Other News: LMRA +12% (extends recent momentum), ACTI +12% (its smart card was selected by TSA for airport security), CHINA +6.8% (launches Google's Click-to-Play video ads in China), F +1.9% (Goldman upgrade).

    Turult on kuulda jutte, et homse nafta varude raporti avaldamine võib näidata varude suurenemist - seda peamiselt keskmisest mahedama ilma tõttu Kirde-USAs. On pakutud välja, et see on ka üks põhjus, miks OPEC võib plaanida veel 500,000 barreli suurust tootmise vähendamist detsembris. Hetkel naftahind enam-vähem nullis, siiski pisut miinuses.
  • Ja harime investeerimishuvilisi taas pisut - sedakorda ajaloolisest puktist lähtudes. Täna, 24. oktoobril, 1929. aastal toimus USAs börsikrahh, mida tuntakse musta esmaspäeva nime all.

    Ning teine pisut lõbusam fakt on kõikidele lumesõpradele - 24. oktoober on ka päev, mil 2005. aastal sadas Eestis esimest korda lund.

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