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Börsipäev 25. oktoober

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  • Turul kütavad kirgi täna GM, MO, BA, AMZN tulemused. GM, mis esmapilgug paistis tugevalt
    löövat ootuseid, ei suutnud lähemal vaatlusel siiski midagi väga head investoritele pakkuda.

    Piper Jaffray downgrades Select Comfort (SCSS 25.06) to Market Perform from Outperform
    and lowers tgt to $25 from $28, based on disappointing Q3 same-store sales results and
    more specifically a shortfall in mattress unit volume in co-owned store

    Piper Jaffray downgrades NetEase (NTES 16.80) to Market Perform from Outperform and
    lowers tgt to $19 from $27, based on slowing growth for top two selling MMO games,
    uncertain and limited game pipeline, in-game protest trends that continue to dampen
    demand, increased government intervention regarding Internet gameplay that is likely
    and slowing growth trends for Internet gaming in China

    Piper Jaffray downgrades Shanda Interactive (SNDA 15.08) to Market Perform from
    Outperform and lowers tgt to $17 from $21, based on its top two selling MMO games
    experiencing product fatigue, dynamic and limited game pipeline, uncertainty regarding a
    shift in business model, competition and slowing growth trends for Internet gaming in China.

    Merrill Lynch downgrades Seagate (STX 21.13) to Neutral from Buy

    Prudential downgrades The Stanley Works (SWK 51.35) to Underweight from Neutral and
    lowers tgt to $44 from $50, based on lower organic growth and EPS reductions

    Oppenheimer downgrades Digital River (DRIV 53.05) to Neutral from Buy, based on valuation,
    the Symantec deal extension is likely a short-term negative and believe there may be
    downside risk to current Q4 and Q107 estimates

    European Pharma Sector raised to Overweight from Neutral at UBS

    Europe Insurance stocks cut to Neutral from Overweight at UBS

    JMP Securities notes that Brookfield Homes (BHS 30.90) reported 3Q06 EPS of $1.03,
    above their EPS estimate of $0.96. Firm says most of the upside came from a $3.5 mln
    benefit to SG&A ($0.08/sh.) due to option expense reversal, and they view the quarter as
    mixed

    ThinkEquity notes that Evergreen Solar (ESLR 8.63) posted Q3 revenue of $36 mln,
    beating their estimate/Street by $2.3 mln and $5 mln, respectively, and inline EPS of
    ($0.08). Firm thinks higher silicon prices could dampen margins in 2007 and 1H08.
    They say a questionable timeframe on the additional "non-EverQ" 150MW capacity build-out
    makes the future somewhat cloudy. They say greater clarity into EverQ equity accounting
    method and additional EverQ revenue are positives that offset some near-term issues.
    Firm cuts their tgt to $10 from $13 given their somewhat cautious outlook on the company.

    NTRI Nutrisystem tgt raised to $105 from $95 at Citigroup
  • Majandusstatistika koha pealt avaldatakse täna kell 17.00 olemasolvate majade müüginumber – viimati oli see 6,3 miljonit, seekord oodatakse 6,25 miljonit. Lisaks avaldatakse kell 17.30 nafta varude raport. Eelmine nädal oli toornafta varude kasv muljetavaldavalt suur – kogunisti 5,02 miljonit barrelit.

    Kell 21.15 Eesti aja järgi saame täna kuulda USA Föderaalreservi otsusest. Tavapäraselt võib taas oodata, et pärast otsuse teatavakstegemist ja eelkõige just edasise poliitika suhtes avaldatud arvamused/vihjed toovad turule suurema elevuse.

    Eilsete tulemusteavaldajate koha pealt - kõige positiivsemalt on reageeeritud AMZN, KLAC ja ADBE raportite peale.

    Nafta on eelturul plussis, mis omakorda võib toetada Oliveri poolt täna hommikul LHV PRO-sse lisatud ühte lühikeseksmüügi kauplemisideed lennundussektorist.

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: LIFC -24%, CKFR -15% (also Wachovia downgrade), GNSS -13% (also downgrades from CIBC and Roth Capital), SCSS -12% (also Piper downgrade), BTUI -12%, CYMI -9.2%, GYI -9% (also downgrades from JP Morgan and Soleil), ALGN -8%, PNRA -6.1%, RSH -7.5%, WIRE -6.5% (also Sterne-Agee downgrade), ILSE -5.6%, SWK -5% (also downgrades from Citigroup and Pru), DOV -4.7%, MNST -4.6%, CENX -4.6%, FLEX -5.5% (also Needham downgrade), TROW -3.7%, RFMD -3.2%, ESRX -3.1%, GM -2.8%, GLW -2%, AFL -1.4% (also SunTrust downgrade), IMCL -1.3%, BA -1%... Other News: FLR -7% (announces expected Q3 charges, guides FY07 below consensus), EPIQ -3.1% (co says SEC conducting routine review), DRIV -2.5% (OpCo downgrade), JNPR -1.6%, XLNX -1% (Baird downgrade).
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    Sharki arvamusavaldus:

    Market Might Be Wrong, but It's the Market
    By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/25/2006 8:49 AM EDT

    "It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes. But the half-wit remains a half-wit, and the emperor remains an emperor."
    -- Neil Gaiman

    As the market continues its unrelenting move higher, the bears tell us that the market beast wears no clothes. Bulls and buyers are told that they are embracing an illusion of strength and acting out of fear of being left behind. There are problems out there that are obvious to anyone but the market refuses to acknowledge them and continues merrily along.

    What the naysayers are missing is that even if there is no good reason for the market strength, the fact is that the market can do whatever it pleases. If it wants to continue to move higher it is going to do so and it doesn't much matter what any of us think about it. Either we get with the program or we will be squashed by the arrogance of a market that will do what it wants for as long as it wants.
    At some point things will shift and the unjustified nature of the move will suddenly be realized by the masses but trying to anticipate when that will occur is a difficult task. There are some issues out there such as the mix of earnings reports and the increasingly narrow support for the market move on the back of a smaller group of mega-caps but right now the market is not ready to embrace any negatives

    Speaking of emperors, the FOMC is set to issue its proclamation on interest rates this afternoon at 2:15 p.m. EDT and that is likely to create volatility. The expectation is that there is unlikely to be any major changes in the current stance but the market is going to be hypersensitive to any change in language about inflation. We'll talk about that more later today.
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  • SCSS'i puhul on ootused pidevalt natuke kõrgemal kui nad ise prognoosivad
    enda lubadusi on nad stabiilselt suutnud täita
    eks valuatsioon on ka piiri peal ja vastavuses nende long term targetitega
    kipub olema sihuke rahulik +25% aktsia aasta baasil.

    või mis mõtted Pro all liiguvad, lubasite millalgi kommenteerida?
  • Me kommenteerime täna. enamus analüütikuid olid päris hullult enne tulemusi stocki üles haipinud ja tahavad "välja saada." Nii mõnelegi tuli üllatusena asi ja nüüd ootame kuni reitinguid madalamale tõmmatakse. Me ei soovita tänast kukkumist osta ning näeme mõnigast allaliikumist lähiajal - analüütikud peavad oma auru välja laskma. Soovitame pigem osadena soetama hakata.
  • Existing Home Sales 6.18 vs 6.25 mln consensus
  • Speedy, kommenteerisin nüüd täpsemalt ka Pro all. Ausaltöeldes nii suurt allamüüki esimese hooga ei oodanudki.
  • Tänane nafta varude raport pakub silmailu energia poolehoidjatele. Varud vähenesid 3,21 miljonit barrelit, kusjuures eile veel liikusid jutud, et võime tänagi näha eelmise nädalaga sarnast 5 miljoni barrelilist varude suurenemist.

    The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 3.21 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 3.0 mln barrels); gasoline inventories had a draw of 2.76 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 550K barrels); distillate inventories had a draw of 1.42 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 1.5 mln barrels).
  • BONDX FOMC keeps rates unchanged at 5.25%
    BONDX FOMC leave rates unchanged at 5.25%, 'inflation risks remain' with a data dependent bias
    Fed's Lacker dissents, preferring quarter point increase
    Fed says slower economy reflects 'cooling' housing market
    Fed says inflation pressures also likely to lessen due to contained expectations, effects of past policy
    Fed says core inflation has been elevated
    Fed says economy likely to expand at moderate pace
    Fed says inflation pressures likely to moderate over time
    BONDX Core inflation elevated, Lacker still the only voter dissenting on a rate pause

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