LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 3.november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Lisan eilse TA pildi. Nasdaq langes oodatult läbi 20 päeva libiseva keskmise. Nõrkuse jätkumisel võiks järgmiseks sihiks olla 50 päeva libisev keskmine, mis oli juuli keskel vastupanuks. Läbi 20 päeva MA on kukkunud ka S&P ja DJIA. Eile tõusis CBOE volatiilsusindeks VIX päeva sees ka 11,76 punktini, vastupanuni ehk 50 päeva libiseva keskmise alla. Graafikult on näha, et Nasdaq suutis vaevaliselt, kuid siiski teha kõrgema tipu kui aprillis. Kui Nasdaq on liikunud juba paar kuud ülespoole ning teinud paar toetust, siis ka suhtelise tugevuse indikaator RSI on nüüdseks tagasi oma toetusel. Sellest läbi kukkumine on aga märk nõrkuse jätkumisest. Täna toon välja ka ühe huvitava nimega indikaatori TRIX, mis on aktsia või indeksi sulgemishinna mitmekordselt silutud libisev keskmine (EMA) ning tänu sellele eemaldab aegreast teravad ja väiksemad kõikumised. Erinevate, vähemvaadeldud indikaatorite usaldatavus on omaette teema, siis vaadeldes minevikus antud signaale näeme, et see sobib suhteliselt hästi pikemate trendimuutuste leidmiseks. Näeme, et müügisignaal on antud just paar päeva tagasi. Varasemad allaliikumised sellist signaali andnud ei ole. Praegusel tasemel jään ma keskmises plaanis jätkuvalt karude poolele ning ootaksin indeksi alla liikumist.


    Kuna raskete aegade puhul otsitakse alternatiivseid kohti, kuhu investeerida, siis üheks selliseks on kindlasti olnud paljuräägitud kuld. Lisan siia juurde ka vastava graafiku, kust näeme, et peale pikemat langustsüklit, on murtud ülespoole langevat vastupanu.

  • Täna võib olla õige aeg meenutamaks 24. oktoobri börsipäeva ja REIT-de kohta käinud kommentaari:

    Toon välja terve Keybanci kommentaari REITide kohta. Minu arust päris kuldne call, arvestades positiivsust sektoris. Mõneda astad tagasi kirjutasin sektorist ka LHV lehel. Tol ajal kauplesid aktsiad minu mäletamist mööda ca 5-10x EBITDA,10x FFO ja div yield ulatus 15% tasemeni. Tänane situatsioon on hoopis teistsugune. Aktsiad kauplevad 30x EBITDA,15-20x FFO ja div yeld ca 3-4x madalam. Valuatsioonid on kõrged, tulevikuväljavaated erinevates sektori segmentides mitte nii head kui mõni aeg tagasi:

    Keybanc initiates coverage of 25 office, mixed office/industrial, apartment and health care REITs. In 2007, they expect REIT shares will deliver a 0-5% total return, reflecting flat to negative 5% share prices and a 3.7% dividend yield.Firm believes REIT shares will hold steady or perhaps move up slightly in the near term, but that valuation and return pressures will begin to erode share prices later in the year. Firm prefer office and health care REITs to multifamily and mixed office/industrial companies. Their favorite names are BioMed (BMR), Digital Realty (DLR), Mack-Cali (CLI), American Campus (ACC) and United Dominion (UDR). Their least favorite names include: Boston Properties (BXP), Parkway Properties (PKY), PS Business Parks (PSB) and Post Properties (PPS). Keybanc inititaes Archstone-Smith Trust (ASN 59.00) tgt $61, United Dominion Realty Trust (UDR 31.92) tgt $33, American Campus Communities (ACC 26.93) tgt $28, Mack-Cali (CLI 51.74) tgt $55, Maguire Properties (MPG 42.40) tgt $44, Nationwide Health Properties (NHP 28.06) tgt $29, Digital Realty Trust (DLR 33.74) tgt $35, Ventas (VTR 38.87) tgt $40, and Cogdell Spencer (CSA 21.50) tgt $22 with Buys. The firm also initiates Post Properties (PPS 49.99) tgt $44, P.S Business Parks (PSB 63.50) tgt $55, Parkway Properties (PKY 49.70) tgt $44, and Boston Properties (BXP 105.83) tgt $96, with Underweights.

    Üheks põhjuseks suur langus REIT sektoris (ticker IYR) ning emake Merrill on tulnud välja sektorit puudutava kommentaariga:

    Merrill Lynch downgrades Mack-Cali (CLI 50.18) to Neutral from Buy based on a weaknening of the Westchester County (New York) and New Jersey office markets. 

    Kui üldine majanduskasv peaks jahtuma, siis see sektor peaks olema järgmine, mis löögi saab. Paljud elamud, mida ei suudeta/taheta turul realiseerida, lükatakse renditurule, mis peaks ohjeldama rendimäärade tõusu. BRE ja EQR mainisid oma konverentsil, et müümata jäänud elamud mõjutavad juba nende rendibaasi.

  • Futuurid reageerisid majandusstatistikale esialgu positiivselt. Tunne on, et positiivsus müüakse alla.

    Unemployment Rate 4.4% vs 4.6% consensus
    Nonfarm Payrolls 92K vs 125K consensus
    Nonfarm Payrolls 92K vs 125K consensus
    Hourly Earnings +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus
  • Cramer on TheStreet.com'is toonud Garmini (GMRN) välja kui potentsiaalse gapi-täitja. Järgnevalt ka artikkel ise:

    Garmin's Bounce Looks Like a Gift

    Garmin (GRMN) is a tough one.


    You know why? Because while Wall Street was unanimously proclaiming this quarter a big miss, you didn't get anything like that feeling if you listened to the conference call. Instead, you got the sense, for certain, that if you sell now, before all of these new products come out, you'll miss some upside.

    So why am I reluctant to tell you to buy it? Why am I as cautious as Rob Sanderson, the bear of American Tech, who has been very right on the name?

    Precisely because there was no recognition on that conference call that anything was remotely awry. When management reports a revenue number that simply isn't as good as what people are looking for, I think it is worth addressing front and center. Garmin really did the opposite. It acted as if you should be thrilled with its report. That's mystifying.

    I am not in favor of giving guidance. I think it is a big waste of management's time. But I am in favor of explanations. If you disappoint, if you simply blow up in one category -- in this case, aviation, which I thought was a growth market and yet revenue declined -- I would tell you that such a miss must be explained or else.

    We got the "or else" when they didn't. And the stock did the right thing.

    I would sell this day-after panic bounce. It seems like a gift in light of the company's lack of forthright discussion of what went wrong vs. what we were looking for.

    At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned in this column.

     

    Siia juurde ka graafik, kust on näha, et aktsia on alla gappides maandunud täpselt pikaajalise tõusutrendi peale. Pikaks võimalus minna viimaste päevade tippude ($47) läbimisel ning ees ootab lai gap kuni $53-ni. Samas võib septembri tipp $48 juures vahepeal kerget vastupanu pakkuda.

  • Caterpillar: "Pockets of acute weakness" in U.S. in '07 - Reuters (60.56 ) :

    Reuters reports a top executive at Caterpillar (CAT) said late Thursday he believes 2007 will be a year of "significant slowdown'' in the U.S. housing market. But Jim Froeschle, the general manager of Caterpillar's strategic support group and the co's in-house economist, said he was optimistic any effect the real-estate slowdown had on the wider economy would constitute a momentary pause in U.S. growth rather than the beginning of a prolonged slump. The housing slowdown is one of two "pockets of acute weakness'' Froeschle said Caterpillar is girding for in the coming year, one in which it has already warned it expects to see revenue rise no more than 5% -- and perhaps flatline entirely -- after years of double-digit gains. Froeschle said the US would experience a "significant slowdown'' in the housing market in the coming year. He also warned that new clean-air rules governing on-highway diesel engines that take effect in 2007 would make that business -- an important niche for Caterpillar -- "a clear area of weakness.'' The reason is that many trucking companies are refreshing their fleets this year, ahead of the new rules, which will require expensive new engines. That's pulling sales forward -- but it is also widely expected to result in a sharp drop in sales next year. 

    CAT kommentaarid on ühest küljest asjalikud majandusolukorra kohta, kuigi mitte midagi uut. Teisest küljest on sõnavõtt clean-air rules teemal päris huvitavad. Seoses sellega tasub ehk radaril hoida edaspidi pisike FSYS, mis kõigest $200 miljonilise turukapitalisatsiooniga ja 11.5 miljonilise floatiga on firma, mis on keskendunud sisepõlemismootoritele, gaasile ja põlemisefektiivsusele/puhtusele. Toodang on hinnatud näigeks NACCO Materials Handling Groupi poolt. Käibest 66% tuleb siiski väljastpoolt USA-d, kuid emissioonide maht on ka paljudes firma sihtturgudest probleemiks. Järgnev aasta võib tõmmata ettevõttele rohkem huvi ning valuatsioon on päris huvitav arvestades ka kasvu viimastel aastatel. Hetkel aktsia vastu huvi vähe, kuid tasub radaril hoida (50 päeva EMA läbimine võib kauplejaid kohale meelitada).

  • Weakness Just What the Active Trader Ordered

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/3/2006 8:27 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The word 'happiness' would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness."

    -- Carl Gustav Jung

    If all you did was listen to the popular media you would probably believe that markets that go straight up without a pause are absolutely fantastic. And that is actually a pretty good thing for the hoards of investors who simply buy and hold stocks. Why would you ever want anything to go straight down if you have already put your cash to work and are sitting back waiting for profits?

    For those who know that the market is going to suffer some serious ups and downs over time, it can actually be a relief when a strong trend starts to falter. We can make good money riding a trend for all it's worth but holding on to gains when the trend ends and preparing for the next set of opportunities is where the active investor gains a substantial advantage over his more passive friends.

    For an active investor, the end of a trend is often cause for a sigh of relief and even a little celebration because it produces a new crop of opportunities: the stocks that became extended during the trend start to falter. It is the ups and downs in the market that allow the active investor to boost his returns. If we didn't have some substantial pullbacks we would not have the great upside opportunities to profit from either.

    The failure to appreciate the dangers and opportunities inherent in a normally volatile market is why I'm so critical of those I see as market cheerleaders. This not only includes the media but traditional Wall Street, which wants you fully invested in the market at all times. They are more worried about keeping you tied to the market emotionally and financially than they are about maximizing your returns.

    I bring this up as the market finally starts to sputter a bit not because I believe we are headed down a slippery slope from here but because it's important to keep in mind that market weakness is not a bad thing. If you have the right way of thinking, pullbacks, downtrends and weakness should be warmly embraced because they are what will lead us to more profits in the future.

    The flat action yesterday is continuing this morning. There isn't much going on out there. We have some jobs data that may cause a hiccup or two and some mixed earnings reports but there aren't many major catalysts at the moment.

    As I stated yesterday I'm looking for the dip-buying bulls to make another run here shortly but I believe they are going to run into some stiff resistance from bears who are anxious to sell and/or short strength. Now that we have had a slight crack in the market uptrend the bears are likely to be a bit more confident about pressing and I expect them to do just that if the bulls deliver a bounce.

    It is quiet out there with overseas markets mostly up a minor amount. Oil is bouncing a bit and gold is ticking down a tad.
  • Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: BRLC +25% (also Brean Murray raises tgt to $14), STEL +25%, LOOK +20% (also Piper upgrade), PCR +15%, ERTS +8%, JDSU +7% (also Deutsche upgrade), MDR +6.6% (also Calyon upgrade), TRAK +8.5%, WDC +6.7%, CPHD +6.2%, SINA +6% (also Piper and Citigroup upgrades), GMST +6%, QSII +4.4%, SONE +4.1%, QSFT +4.1%, CROX +3.5%, DRTE +3.4%, THQI +3.3%... Other News: ENCY +14% (submits Thelin response to FDA), ISPH +9% (presents Phase 2 data on cystic fibrosis program), EMMS +6.6% (declares $4 special dividend), VIAC +6.6% (UBS upgrade), LMRA +4.8% (profiled in BWeek Inside Wall St section), ISIL +3.5% (Goldman upgrade), FIS +2.3% (to be added to S&P 500 Index)... Under $3: AVNX +12% (reports SepQ).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: RRGB -24% (also multiple downgrades), LF -20%, WFMI -19%, AQNT -16% (also downgrades from RBC and Merriman), PWAV -9.4% (also downgrades from CIBC and Needham), SGMS -8.2%, ALKS -7.7%, CA -7.4%, PHTN -6.3% (also Maxim downgrade), CQB -6.2%, WLT -5.9%, UNTD -5.2%, CSC -4.7%, KCP -4%, NEW -3%... Other News: NBIX -29% (delays indiplon application), AVNR -5.5%, NOVL -3.1% (profit taking after 15% move yesterday).

Teemade nimekirja