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Börsipäev 8. november

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  • Mõned päevad tagasi tõin välja XM Satellite Radio Holdings (XMSR) majandustulsemused. Lühidalt, müük tõusis 57% võrreldes eelmise aastaga, mil teeniti $240 miljonit dollarit. Ettevõtte tegevuskahjum kahanes $100 miljonilt $61 miljoni dollarini. EPS -0.32 versus analüütikute poolt oodatud -0.46. Ettevõte oli juba eelturul 11.06% plusspoolel ning tõmbas kaasa ka pearivaali Sirius Satellite (SIRI).

    Kuigi viimase kahe päeva tõus on olnud muljetavaldav, näitas XMSR tulemuste päeval nõrkust. Esiteks loomulikult selletõttu, et aktsia lendas uudise peale kõrgelt ning esimesed müüjad hakkasid üle 20% rohelisse lennanud positsioonist väljuma. Teisalt aga omab XM jätkuvalt $1,3 miljardit dollarit võlga ning koguvõlga kokku $2,3 miljardi dollari eest. Ka auditooriumi kasvunumbrid ei olnud eriti kiita? Kui varem prognoositi aasta lõpuks 7.7 miljonit kasutajat, siis viimases kvartalis lisandunud kasutajate arv sellist numbrit lubada ei lase. Kui viimases kvartalis lisandus 282 000 kasutajat ning kokku on ettevõttel 7,185 miljonit kasutajat, siis eelpool toodud sihi saavutamiseks peaks järgmises kvartalis netona lisanduma vähemalt 500 000 kasutajat.

    Seega üheltpoolt kasutajate kasvu vähenemine ning teiselt poolt ka kasutaja saamiseks kulutatud ühikute kasv. Eelmisel aasta $53 ning sellel aastal $60. Ehk selliste numbritega küll kõrgemale liikumist ei ootaks. 52 nädala tipp on tehtud $32 juures.

    Täna enne turgu on võrdluseks ka Sirius Sattellite Radio (SIRI) tulemused olemas. Ka Siri kvartali kahjum vähenes ning müük rohkem kui kahekordistus. Kolmanda kvartali kahjum oli $162,9 miljonit dollarit, EPS -12$ versys 180,4 miljonit lossi EPS -14$ aasta varem. Võrreldes XMSRiga, lisandus Siriusele eelmises kvartalis 441 101 kasutajat ja kasutajate koguarv ulatub 5,1 miljonini. Kasv aastaga 23%. SIRI ise usub, et saavutab aasta lõpuks 6,3 miljonit kasutajat. Aktsia eelturul 1,47% plussis.
  • Halliburtonile teevad valimised liiga
    samuti WallMart'le, "minimum wages" ?
  • Täna üllatas turuosalisi oma tugevate numbritega Polo Ralph Lauren(RL), kes teenis 2. kvartalis kasumit $1.28 aktsia kohta, mis on 22-sendiga oodatust parem. Samuti anti varasemast oluliselt parem nägemus 2007. fiskaalaasta kohta. Kasumit oodatakse järgmisel aastal $3.50-$3.60(varasem vahemik $3.25-$3.35). Samuti usub ettevõte, et marginaalid paranevad järgmises kvartalis võrreldes aasta-tagause perioodiga.

    Turgudel futuurid hetkel korralikus miinuses.

    Gapping Up: TRMS +26%, AIRM +13%, STEM +11%, IIG +11%, SPI +10%, SFLY +5.4%, MRX +5.2%, TS +4.9%, GERN +4.4%, VIAC +4.4%, BCSI +4.1%, NOVL +4%, CBI +4%, SIRI +3.9%, FWLT +3.8%, NVAX +3.3%, WFMI +2.7%, Under $3: BPA +32%...
    Gapping Down: TRLG -22%, LMRA -16%, AVII -12%, CE -5.8%, CHL -4.3%, SIGA -4%, OSIP -3.6%, HOV -3.6%, NFI -3.4%, SGP -2.7%, PEIX -2.6%, WFR -2.5%, MRK -2.4%, ET -2.3%, HAL -2.3%, XLNX -1.3%, Under $3: TMY -7%.

    Toon siia ära ühe ‘maja’ arvamuse valmistulemuste koha pealt ning mis ja mil määral võib saada sest mõjutatud:

    "Susquehanna notes that as anticipated, last night shaped up to be a very good night for the Democrats. Given the gridlock that the firm believes is likely to occur during the next two years, they do not expect significant policy changes to energy, tax, health care, defense, and other areas. They believe that when the Democrats take over the House -- and possibly the Senate -- they will see a split government again. For the most part, the firm sees markets performing well in this divided govt environment. Even if the Democrats win the Senate races in Montana and Virginia, and perform the "perfect sweep" by winning both the House and the Senate, they do not see a negative market reaction to this scenario in 2007 and 2008 once the results settle in. They see brand name pharmaceuticals, defense contractors, telcos, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), managed care companies, asset managers, student lenders and oil and gas firms facing more headline risk under Democratic control, while they see generic drug manufacturers, hospitals, the housing GSEs, and alternative energy providers benefiting as the Democrats seize control of the House and possibly the Senate."

    To speedy,

    Oled iseenesest õigel teel - teatud mõju see kindlasti avaldab. Demokraatide üks valimislubadusi oli tõsta miinimumpalku ja on just Wal-Mart üks selliseid tööandjaid, kes 'armastab' miinimumpalku päris ohtralt ka maksta - olgu need siis käruvedajad parklates, turvamehed/valvurid, koristajad jne
  • Market Reaction: Possibly a Ho-Hum

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/8/2006 8:27 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "While the Republicans are smart enough to make money, the Democrats are smart enough to get into office every two or three times a century to take it away from them."

    -- Will Rogers

    The election results came in even better for the Democrats than many expected and that seems to be producing a negative market reaction this morning. Although the Democrats have seized control of the House and maybe even the Senate, it is still a narrow enough margin that coupled with the President's veto power it is unlikely any significant legislation can be passed.

    On the other hand, certain tax cuts will expire if no action is taken, and that expiration now seems much more likely. In addition there is likely to be much more noise about other market-unfriendly issues such as windfall profit taxes on oil, price controls on drugs, and more government oversight in a variety of areas.

    To a great degree the election creates more noise and fury than actual change but it does affect psychology and that is what we are seeing this morning. It has been somewhat surprising the market was so strong going into the election, as the Democrats were sure to gain some power, but the market was probably anticipating gridlock. These results are not quite the gridlock that many probably were hoping for.

    So now what? Do we shrug this off as a slight hiccup and continue hitting new highs? We'll get some clues today about the market view. I found the strength and persistence of the buying the past couple days very surprising and was puzzled by what was driving it. It looked more like mechanical asset reallocation into equities rather than investors looking for bargains.

    Make no mistake about it, the bulls have the wind at their backs and the trend is definitely up. The election could be a good excuse for some selling but when buyers want to buy, they are going to do so no matter what. The election may quickly turn into a non-event for the market; let's let the action be our guide. We need to watch what is going on under the surface more closely than usual right now to see if the bulls can continue to have the juice to keep things running.

    We have a down open and overseas markets were weak as well. Gold is lower and oil higher.
  • The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 435K barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 750K barrels); gasoline inventories had a draw of 584K mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is inventories were unchanged); distillate inventories had a draw of 2.675 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 800K barrels).
  • Democrat Tester wins US Senate seat in Montana
  • Defense Secretary Rumsfield will step down

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