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Börsipäev 9. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Crude Oil üle 60, DJIA futuurid punases ning Nasdaq roheline CSCO toel.
  • 2% decline in import prices for October, the largest decline in three years, due to lower oil prices.
  • Ja selgitamaks, mis siis toornafta hinda on tagant tõuganud, on üheks faktoriks kindlasti eilne varude raport, mille börsipäevas ära tõin. Toornafta varud kasvasid oodatust aeglasemalt ning kütusevarud kahanesid oodatust tunduvalt kiiremini.

    Inglismaa Keskpank tõstis oma baasintressimäära veerand protsendipunkti võrra kõrgemale ja on nüüd 5.0%. Tegu on teise intressitõstmisega viimase 4 kuu jooksul. Intressitõusu üheks peamiseks põhjuseks oli vähendada 'kuuma olukorda' kinnisvara turul.

    Sharki tänane eelturu kommentaar:

    Play the Emotions, but Don't Get Overwhelmed

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/9/2006 8:36 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Human behavior flows from three main sources: desire, emotion, and knowledge."

    -- Plato

    Although bulls scoff at the question, it is natural for thinking investors to ponder what is driving the recent market rally. Quite often it is better to embrace the trend and not waste too much time wondering why market players are doing what they are doing. Quite often it is unknowable and we do nothing but project our own prejudices and feelings into the explanation.

    However, as the market becomes increasingly extended it can be helpful to contemplate the human behavior at work especially the desire and emotions that drive buying and selling. One of the great oddities of the market is that there is a tendency to be more optimistic the longer and stronger the market has been. Investors are always much more positive and optimistic at market highs than they are at lows. Higher profits and prices generate more optimism, not less.

    It is perfectly understandable behavior and it is what causes markets that seem quite extended to become even more so. The key is to make sure you maintain your objectivity and not get sucked into the emotions and desires that are at work. It can feel very wrong to be cautious and slow moving when those around you are having a party and celebrating with big profits. Stay bullish and positive but also make sure you don't let emotions affect your objectivity.

    I've been proceeding in a cautious manner for a while and noticed that I was feeling a little affected by the swirl of emotions yesterday. There were more than the usual number of critics and gloaters who were trying hard to bludgeon me into feeling that I was out of synch. Inevitably, when I feel more bothered by that I find that it is their emotions that are about to be proved wrong and not mine.

    There is no question that being cautious in this market has not worked as well as being wildly bullish. When the market is going up like it has been, the geniuses are those who have been fully invested and are staying that way. If they actually exit in a timely manner when things turn, they will be the big winner. But the irony is that those who do so well at buying and holding when we are running up are generally very poor at selling and getting out when things start to go down.

    The folks who held long and strong through the pullback last week are celebrating this week but the fact that they held proves that they are not sensitive to weakening technicals. They are very likely to hold next time we weaken and if we don't bounce back they will give up some pretty profits.

    The market is always a balancing act and it's important to make sure you appreciate the emotions at work out there while not letting them dominate your own thinking.

    We have a mixed open on the way this morning. Cisco is helping the Nasdaq and technology stocks but the S&P 500 and DJIA are looking to open soft as oil and gold climb sharply. Overseas markets are mostly down. The Bank of England raised rates and that is putting pressure on stocks in London, while in Tokyo slowing bank lending is raising questions about economic growth.

    I have a couple appointments and will be writing on a limited basis today. I'll be back a little later.

    At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time
    --------
    Majandusstatistika:

    08:30 Import Prices ex-oil -0.6%; varasem +0.1%
    08:30 Trade Balance -$64.3 bln vs -$66.0 bln konsensus
    08:30 Initial Claims 308K vs 318K konsensus

    Eelturu liikujad:

    Gapping Up: CSCO +9.2%, KEYW +18%, GIGM +17%, AMKR +15%, GOAM +10%, IFOX +8.4%, KONG +7.7%, PCLN +7%, TOMO +6.2%, LPTH +6%, SNIC +5%, TARO +4.5%, JNPR +4.2%, RTLX +4.1%, APKT +3.9%, Under $3: NENG +6.6%... Gapping Down: JUPM -27%, FOXH -20%, IMAX -20%, EMIS -19%, FICC -16%, CAMT -10%, ERES -8.4%, ADAM -8%, PRSC -7.8%, CTRP -7.7%, LMRA -7%, MCHX -7%, SPI -4.7%, RACK -4.4%, OZRK -3.7%, HANS -3.3%, DRC -2.4%, HOG -2.1%, CMVT -1.9%, Under $3: JDO -7%.
  • Bloomberg reports that analysts are expecting a draw of 5 bcf in Natural Gas Inventories during the week ended Nov 4th; analyst estimates range from a draw of 24 bcf to a build of 10 bcf; 4-week average is a build of 31.25 bcf; year ago build in same time period was 62 bcf. For Oct 27th, inventory fell 9 bcf to 3.452 tcf compared to year ago levels of 3.164 tcf and the 5-year average of 3.176 tcf.
  • Raport avaldatakse nagu ikka kell 10.30 USA idaranniku aja järgi ning see näitas, et tegelikult varud vähenesid -7 bcf-i võrra. Ülejääk eelmise aastaga on järk-järgult vähenemas
  • Turul on palju negatiivset toimumas ning nüüdseks käisid ka kuubikud juba miinuspoolel ära. Eile tulemuste ja guidance'i tõstmise peale rallinud Ralph Lauren(RL) on tippudest pea kaks dollarit juba järgi andnud. Sama käib Cisco(CSCO) kohta, kes gappis 1. kvartali numbrite avaldamise järel väga tugevalt üles ja on nüüdseks sealt dollari jagu allapoole vajunud.

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