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Börsipäev 15. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Reuters reports Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) on Tuesday said it raised its holdings in Lowe's (LOW) and Nike (NKE), but may have reduced its stakes in Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and Target (TGT). In a regulatory filing, Berkshire said it owned 7 mln shares of Lowe's on September 30, up from 390,000 on June 30. It also said it owned 4 mln shares of Nike, up from 2.47 mln. Berkshire also reported a 36.42 mln share stake in Anheuser-Busch, down from 43.53 mln in June. It also reported a 745,700 share Target stake, compared with 5.5 mln shares in June. Among other changes in Q3, Berkshire said it cut its stake in H&R Block (HRB) to 10.97 mln shares from 11.39 mln, and raised its stake Iron Mountain (IRM) to 6.03 mln shares from 5.02 mln.
  • Shares in Japan's Nintendo Co. Ltd. (7974.OS) hit an all-time high on Wednesday on soaring expectations that its new game console, the Wii, could repeat the success of its hot-selling handheld machine, the DS.

    Nädala launchid: Sony (SNE) PS3, iPodi tapja Zune by Microsoft (MSFT) ja Nintendo (NTDO) Wii.
  • Ka indeksid väljaspool USAd on mitmel pool väga tugevad olnud. Hong Kongi Hang Seng ületas täna 19,000 punkti piiri. India aktsiaindeks Sensex saavutas pankade ja IT-aktsiate toel uue rekordi, tõustes üle 13,469 punkti.

    Nagu Aimar juba märkis, oli täna paar tundi tagasi Jaapani lähistel väga tugev maavärin. Teadmaks, millised ettevõtted sedasorti maavärinatest ning tsunaamiohtudest võiksid ka edaspidi kasu lõigata, kopeerin siia Briefingu teksti selle kohta:

    There was an earhtquake of magnitude 8.1 in the Kuril Islands north of Japan; a Tsunami warning has also been issued in the region. We note that the following stocks have moved in the past following quakes and tsunami warnings: TAYD (seismic dampers, shock absorbers), CLWT (water treatment equipment, co based in Asia), STRN (systems monitoring water level, water quality, flooding, coastline and tidal parameters), SDIX (water diagnostic testing), ANLT (was formerly a precision computerized map provider, but it appears co has sold that division Aug 1, but traders may run it anyway not realizing the sale) and NGRU (steel engineering software).
  • Nigeeria, relvastatud mehed ja nende 'probleemid' naftapuurtornidega - kombinatsioon, mis juba tükk aega Nigeerias ametnikele ja nafta ettevõtetele peavalu tekitab. Täna tuligi taaskord teateid, et relvastatud mehed on Nigeerias rünnanud Shelli nafta ehitisi, mille tulemusena sai 2 inimest surma.

    Naftaga kaupelmist mõjutab nagu ikka kolmapäevane varude raport - arvestades möödunud nädala keskmisest soojemat ilma, on arvamused võimalike varude muutuse kohta üppriski segased. Toornaftalt oodatakse varude suurenemist pisut alla 1 miljoni barreli, see-eest distilaatidelt oodatakse ca 1-miljonilist varude vähenemist.
  • Sellised kommentaarid küll head ei tähenda:
    GOOG Google reinstated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse- tgt $600

    Credit Suisse reinstates GOOG with an Outperform and a $600 tgt saying YouTube now positions Google as the top online video destination globally. According to comScore, The firm says while impact of copyright issues is the key risk in the YouTube acquisition, we believe proactive moves made by both companies should limit that risk. They also say successful monetization of YouTube traffic could add $160 mln in revenue in 2007
  • Liiga bullish sentimendile vihjasin eelneva kommentaariga. Lisaks:

    Investors Intelligence reports that bearish sentiment has dropped by nearly 4 points to 22.3%, while bullish sentiment has risen from 52%.1 to 56.4%.
  • $600 juures on ka teisi GOOG targeteid, seega pole vast väga hullu. Ja see ju tegelikult vaid 20% praegusest hinnast kõrgemal...
  • Minu arust on GOOGi youtube kaudu hindamine praegu veel suhteliselt enneaegne. Pigem tundub, et vennad on rongilt maha jäänud.
  • 500 peal käib ilmselt täna ära, aga mis edasi? Vaatame, kas jaksu on.
  • GOOG läheb hoopis lühikeseks ja siht $350, sorry - elame, näeme
  • Sharki asemel pakuks täna vahelduseks lugeda väikese lõigu hoopis kurikuulsalt negatiivse nägemusega Doug Kassi sulest.

    Housing's Softness Has Long Reach

    By Doug Kass
    Street Insight Contributor
    11/14/2006 12:01 PM EST
    Click here for more stories by Doug Kass

    The nearly uninterrupted and intoxicating rise in equities over the last four months has caused many normally sober market participants to underestimate the severity of housing's downturn and to ignore the likely broad multiplier effect of housing's hard landing on the economy.

    The arm of the housing market is long, and the cycles (up and down) tend to be long, too. Importantly, the lag of housing's negative influence (from the statistical peak in housing) is typically long, too.

    At first, furniture retailers are immediately affected by the slowdown in residential activity -- just look at the rotten charts and continued earnings guidance of furniture industry stocks like Haverty Furniture (HVT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Ethan Allen (ETH - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating).

    Then home remodeling retailers and appliance manufacturers falter -- just look at the bad chart and profit guidedown at Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). Ultimately, the effect that a hard landing in housing has on economic activity -- and the lower home prices that it portends -- broadens and causes a deep retrenchment in consumption (starting at Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating)) , and its scope and impact.
    -------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: AOB +16%, DAKT +15%, BNSO +16%, GMTN +9%, QI +6.4%, CHINA +5.4%, CHRS +4.8%, VRGY +3.7% (also TWP upgrade)... Other News: VNDA +33% (positive Phase 3 data), TRMS +18% (announces strategic shift, will focus more on Fuzeon, CEO resigns, plans job cuts; also First Albany and ThinkEquity upgrades), RRA +16% (to be acquired), STEM +12% (announces first human neural stem cell transplant), ACAM +9% (recovers a bit after 40% drop yesterday), AAI +7.2% (Bear Stearns upgrade), JBLU +6.5% (Bear Stearns upgrade), CAKE +5.5% (FBR upgrade), LCC +5% (proposes to merge with Delta), APKT +5%, RATE +4% (RBC upgrade), CAL +4%... Tsunami/hurricane stocks up on Japan quake: TAYD +11%, CLWT +4.6%... Under $3: ARTX +16% (reports Q3), CXTI +14% (reports Q3, announces new contract).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: BDCO -14%, TSAI -5.1%, EPIQ -4.8%, JBL -4.2%, GG -3.5%, ANF -3.4%, AAV -3.4%... Other News: CMVT -18% (finds new accounting problems, also Goldman downgrades to Sell), TRAC -18% (extends yesterday's 9% drop), EFUT -8.7% (co says it's unaware of reason for big move in stock), CAAS -4% (profit taking after recent big move), GEOI -3.8% (files 10-Q), SKYW -3.7% (reports Oct traffic), NDAQ -3.2% (repays debt).
  • 09:37 Japan agency calls off tsunami warning; urges caution - DJ
  • Energiaaktsiad on tugevalt rallimas ning põhjus peitub nafta varude raportis. Hiigelsuur varude vähenemine mootorkütuse varudes ning distillaatides tuli suure üllatusena.

    The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 1.283 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 275K barrels); gasoline inventories had a draw of 3.781 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 100K); distillate inventories had a draw of 3.565 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 725K barrels).
  • 14:02 FOMC: Ongoing adjustment in housing market seen depressing growth but effect expected to wane
    14:02 FOMC: Inflation targeting still needs more discussion
    14:01 FOMC: Core Inflation still 'uncomfortably high'
    14:01 BONDX Bond Update: FOMC concerned inflation expectations could drift upward if core inflation stayed elevated -Update-
    14:01 FED says investment spending 'holding up well'
    14:00 Most FOMC members expected core inflation to edge lower as effects of higher energy prices waned
    14:00 FOMC: 'Drew some comfort' from recent housing data
    14:00 FED says risk to achieving lower inflation is biggest concern
  • AAPL allatrend on täna minu arust märkimisväärne
  • tundub juskui turu tipp on tehtud...
  • http://web.starman.ee/test111/graafikud/tipp1.png
    http://web.starman.ee/test111/graafikud/tipp2.png
  • Siia juurde sobiks vaadata mis volatiilsuse (VIX) graafik teeb.
  • Aga palun. VIX on aasta põhjadel - tegelikult kui päris aus olla, siis kogunisti vähemalt viimase 3 aasta põhjadel. Investorid on justkui 'unne suikunud'.

  • Seega - kui volatiilsus madal, on optsioonid suhteliselt odavamad?
  • See on muidugi üldistus, kuna tegeliku hinna määrab ka konkreetse aktsia hinnaliikumine ning tema volatiilsus...
  • ...see näitab ju üldist turu seisu, nüüd oleks paras VIX futuuris pikaks minna

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