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Börsipäev 26. detsember

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  • Naftale on täna kaasa aitamas rida faktoreid. Enne jõule jõudis ÜRO otsusele kehtestada Iraani vastu teatud sanktsioonid (eelkõige tuumaprogrammi arendamiseks vajaliku tehnoloogia suhtes), kuna see pole lõpetanud oma tuumaprogrammi. Varem on spekuleeritud, et sanktsioonide korral võib Iraan kasutada naftat ‘relvana’. Riigi naftaministri Vaziri-Hamanehi sanktsioonidejärgne kommentaar oli: ”Kui vaja, kasutab Iraan ükskõik mis relva, et end kaitsta”, kuigi varem on ta selgelt end väljendanud, et ei poolda naftat relvana kasutada. Seega jätkuvalt pole välistatud nafta hinna võimalik kiire tõus tarnete häirimise tulemusena.

    Kivisöesektori hiid Peabody on Barronsis positiivselt ära märgitud. Kuna sektoril on olnud keerulised ajad, on aktsia hind kõvasti allapoole tulnud ning valuatsioon muutumas üha atraktiivsemaks:

    Barron's reports Peaabody Energy's (BTU) prospects rarely have looked brighter, at least in modern times. Shares trade for 17.5 times this year's earnings estimates and 14 times '07 projections -- near the bottom of the industry's range. On the basis of enterprise value to '07 Ebitda, it's at the upper end of the pack, at 8.8. In recent months the stock has begun to attract smaller, aggressive fund investors such as Global Resource Investment Management. "Peabody's cash flow offers value at these [price] levels," co-manager MacKenzie Davis says. Based on EV, BTU's reserves sold for only 7 cents per Mcf of gas equivalent as of Dec. 6, compared with roughly $3 per Mcf for most major oil and gas producers. In the nearer term, the co is expanding its international footprint, via the recent acquisition of Australia's Excel Coal. The deal boosted Peabody's debt to 58% of capitalization, but will add 500 mln tons of thermal and metallurgical reserves, and accelerate the co's move into fast-growing Asian markets.
  • 08:02 Japan Agency says 3-foot tsunami headed for East Philippines - DJ
    Magnitude 6.7 earthquake strikes off Southwestern Taiwan

    3-jalga meile tuntumates mõõtühikutes ca 1 meeter.
  • Tundub, et nn 'viimase hetke' jõuluostud jäid oodatule alla.

    Wall Street getting wind of reports showing that last-minute holiday shopping missed forecasts - contributing to the early sense of reserve among buyers.
  • Tsunamilaineid mõõdetakse teistmoodi kui pinnalaineid, 1 meeter tsunamilainet on päris kõva sõna. 26. dets. 2004.a. tsunamilaine oli 60-sentimeetrine avamerel. Nii, et alati tuleks selgitada kus kohas ja mida täpselt mõõdeti.
  • Täiesti nõus ttrustiga. Kahjuks on lõppkokkuvõttes raske öelda, kas ka 1-meetrine avamerelaine võib kaasa tuua tõelise hävitustöö või mitte. See sõltub juba regiooni geograafilistest iseärasustest - avamerelaine rannikule jõudes hakkab laine kõrgus üha tõusma, kuna põhi on n-ö lähedamal vastas.

    Ja jätkuks pühademüügile - Kaufmani arvamus, millest kumab negatiivsust:

    Kaufman says traffic over this past weekend was light. Firm notes that big-box consumer electronics stores (BBY and CC) fared about even in terms of traffic, with only roughly 30-40 shoppers in store in a one-hour time frame. Mall-based stores of RadioShack (RSH), GameStop (GME) and f.y.e also saw light traffic. In firm's view, the extra shopping day this year did not prove an incremental opportunity as traffic was lighter than expected. They believe that a significant portion of holiday shopping was done earlier in the season, or online. Firm notes that consumer electronics retailers saw heavy traffic over the Black Friday weekend largely due to heavy promotional pricing on high-ticket items such as flat panel TVs and notebook computers. They note entertainment software was the largest purchase category and that digital cameras, MP3 players, and accessories sales were other large purchase categories over the weekend.
  • Ülespoole avanevad:

    ANX +21% (cleared to begin clinical trial), FFHL +12% (being picked up by momentum traders as a low float Chinese IPO), TAYD +8.7% (earthqauke off Taiwan coast; also CLWT +7.6%), SCLN +6.4% (extends Friday's 39% move), APKT +5.4% (Cramer bullish on mad Money, says stock has not even started to run yet), TMR +4.1%, ITMN +5.1% (Wachovia and Leerink Swann upgrades; extends Friday's 29% move), SGMS +2.9%, SIRI +1.1%... Under $3: EPCT +17% (licenses patent to Durect).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    TELK -72% (disappointing trial results for cancer drug), SIGA -8.5% (discloses it has been sued by PharmAthene, which claims it has the right to license SIGA-246), ESCL -5% (extends Friday's 21% sell-off), OPWV -4.3% (files 10-Q), MAMA -3.1% (extends Friday's 23% sell-off), AMR -1.8% (files its Eagle Eye update to investors), Under $3: GNBT -6% (announces shelf offering), TORM -3.9%.

    Praegustel andmetel:
    No threat of Pacific-wide Tsunami, according to warning center- Bloomberg
  • Shark hoiatab, et kuigi enne aastalõppu võiks veel ühte põrget oodata, on pullid momentumi käest lasknud ning tõenäosus korrektsiooniks on suurenenud.

    Believe It: The Market Will Pull Back

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/26/2006 8:34 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "If all the year were playing holidays, to sport would be as tedious as to work."

    -- William Shakespeare

    Although a perpetual holiday might become a bit tedious after a while, I imagine most of us wouldn't mind if the stock market was closed for a few more days. Unfortunately, with the end of the year upon us we can't be completely inattentive unless we have already closed the books and moved to the sidelines with a bag of cash.

    The short holiday week should be particularly challenging as bulls work to hold on to the good returns they have accumulated since the bottom in July and the much abused bears look to finally capitalize on a market that has lost momentum lately.

    While the major indices continue to hold their uptrend fairly well there clearly are signs of trouble: The dip buyers have lacked juice lately; the Nasdaq closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Aug. 14; and the major indices have failed to make any upside progress for over a month now.

    The bulls will tell us this is just some healthy consolidation after a good run and that it shouldn't be a big surprise because many of the big fund managers take a break during the holidays. The bears' response will be "Yeah, right. This market was pushed higher on pure emotion and now it's time to pay the price."

    Given what I have viewed as excessive complacency and optimism in the overall market I tend to believe the bears are going to have some success in the near term. There simply has been too many folks sucked into the ridiculous promotion in the popular media of new highs in the DJIA. The perception of the state of the market has been badly skewed by things like talking about new record highs every few minutes. It has created a feeling that this time it's different and the market won't correct, when the fact is that it is never different: The market always ends up correcting after a big run like we've enjoyed lately.

    I believe we have a good chance of at least a temporary bounce before the year comes to an end but the character of the market has clearly changed in the last week or so. I suspect the bulls are going to have some difficulty regaining upside momentum but they aren't dead yet and should be able to push things around in thinner trading this week.

    For now the best approach is to make sure you defend your gains and if you are trading to the upside, keep time frames short and stops tight. Things are looking shaky. That doesn't mean we fall apart in a straight line but we need a certain amount of distrust at this point.

    We have a slightly soft open on the way. Gold and oil are trading up and Asian markets were slightly.
  • Naftahinna kiire ärakukkumise taga suuresti pühadeaegse kauplemise madal volatiilsus.

    11:00 Floor Talk: Oil

    As noted earlier, crude oil has sold off aggressively this morning (now 61.15 -1.26). We're are hearing that this weakness is not related to any specific news, but rather just holiday volatility as well as the belief that Iran won't actually curtail its oil shipments after the UN said it will impose sanctions on Iran for not ending its nuclear program.

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