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Börsipäev 19. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News

     

    Tallinn Water (Neutral) to invest 40% more in 2007. The water utility Tallinn Water said yesterday it planned to invest EUR 22.17m in 2007, which is 40% more than in 2006 and it is also substantially above our estimates (EUR 7m). However, when having a closer look, much of the investments (EUR 13.4m) will go into new water and sewerage pipeline construction, which the City will compensate (=revenues from other operating activities). In addition, some of the investments planned in 2006 will be carried forward into 2007 fiscal year. Hence, when adjusted, the investments will be more or less as expected. Our dividend forecast for 2006 and 2007 remains at EUR 0.65 (yield 3.7%) and EUR 0.70 (yield 4.0%) per share, respectively. Tallinn Water has long been one of our favourite picks, but due to high valuation we downgraded the share from Buy to Neutral last week.

    Sanitas to resume the sale of "Corhydron". The Lithuanian pharma manufacturer Sanitas announced it had received a permission from the Polish General Pharmaceutical Inspection to resume the sale of medicines "Corhydron" 100 and "Corhydron" 25. The sale of the third version of the medicine, "Corhydron" 250, was renewed earlier on.

    Hansabank starts cooling down Estonian real estate. Yesterday, Estonia's largest bank Hansabank (Swedbank) said it would adopt stricter requirements for developers of new housing estate that are seeking funding from the bank. We believe it will most affect the smaller developers (thousands of them in Estonia). However, the news should have not taken anyone by surprise, since the banks have been getting more cautious for some time now.

    Baltic car sales on the top. According to European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Latvia leads EU for new car registrations, BBN wrote. In Latvia, new car registration increased 53.6% yoy in 2006, followed by Lithuania (up 34.2%) and Estonia (up 30.3%). In contrast, the figures in Portugal, UK and France were down 5.7%, 3.95 and 3.3%, respectively. European average was at +0.7%. No wonder that Tallinna Kaubamaja wants to enter car market.

    Latvia's construction costs up 25% in Q4. According to Latvian Statistical Office, construction costs in Latvia rose on average by 25% y-o-y in Q4. The most rapid increase was in labour remuneration, which went up by 41%. The maintenance and operational costs of machinery and operational costs increased by 30%, and the prices of construction materials rose by 15%.

    Ukraine GDP grows 7% in 2006. According to BBN, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 7% over 2006. For the ongoing year, the Cabinet of Ministers forecasts slightly lower real GDP growth at 6.5%.

  • Focus on Avoiding Losses, Not Making Profits

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/19/2007 8:53 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The wise man in the storm prays to God, not for safety from danger, but deliverance from fear."

    -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

    After an ugly dip like we had in the Nasdaq yesterday, the question we must ponder is whether it was just a temporary squall of selling that is wringing out a little speculative excess or the start of something more ominous. It is always quite obvious after the fact, but when we are in the midst of a nasty dip it is a very difficult determination to make.

    On one hand we don't want to be overly fearful and dump good positions that will recover quickly. On the other hand we don't want to ignore energetic selling that can drive things even lower, wipe out our good gains and put us in a deep hole.

    Where exactly is the line between being prudently cautious and foolishly fearful? It is always going to be a guess and we usually will get it wrong to some degree, but in the stock market it usually pays to err on the side of caution. Our primary goal as investors isn't to make money -- it's to not lose it. It is far more important that we take action that helps us avoid the possibility of losses rather than stand steadfast in the hope of making gains.

    Above all else, stick to your trading discipline. Even if it proves wrong and you end up selling a good stock on a temporary dip, you will be far better off in the long run for having a system that protects you when we have a dip. It is those times when the market does follow through to the downside that you will be rewarded for being disciplined.

    I don't know if yesterday was the start of a more significant correction but I do know that the prudent thing to do is to cut some positions that have broken down technically and raise cash. Maybe the market will turn around and head straight back up and you will have locked in some poorly timed sale, but you can make that up far easier than if you simply hold and have to recover from a further decline.

    Good investing and trading is about discipline. It is not about winging it on gut feelings and guesses. No matter what you do you will be wrong a lot, but being wrong won't hurt you too much if you are methodical in protecting your capital.

    I believe the market has more downside coming so I'm being particularly prudent with money management and am lightening up quite a bit. At the same time I'm making sure I have a list of stocks that I want to buy should good opportunities arise.

    Futures are a bit soft in the very early going as none of the earnings reports on the wires are offering any bullish inspiration. They aren't bad reports but just not good enough to inspire the bulls, who have been buying on the way up for many months now.
    ---------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    JDSU +10.1% (raises DecQ rev guidance), SIGA +28% (not seeing anything yet, looking around), EASY +24% (to be acquired), WHIT +19% (confirms it is in talks to be acquired), AHT +12% (to acquire 51 hotel portfolio), HOKU +6.1% (extends Yesterday's 123% move), CORS +5.2% (to be added to S&P 600), NURO +4.7% (positive NHIC reimbursement news - SunTrust), PGS +3.2% (bounces after recent weakness), ACGY +2.9%, NITE +2.5% (CIBC upgrade), DENN +2.3% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), RACK +2.3% (recovers after recent sell-off; also Matrix upgrade), SNP +2.3% (releases 2006 crude processing data - DJ), VNDA +2.2% (prices offering), BRLC +2.2% (positive Brean Murray comments)... Under $3: CPST +2% (guides DecQ revs above consensus).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: CWTR -21% (guidance only), IBM -4.6%, CREE -8%, CAMD -7.5%, SAY -6.5%, JCI -2.9%, GE -2%, MOT -1% (down in sympathy: RFMD -2.7%, NOK -1.7%)... Other News: ENT -13% (announces Feb distribution, is only half of what was paid in Jan), TXT -4.8% (names new CEO for its Bell Helicopter after current CEO resigns, provides guidance), INWK -3.5% (prices offering), NAVI -3.5% (HPQ to sell of 15% stake - Bloomberg), LOW -2.7%.

    Plusspoolel ka Schlumberger(SLB), kes hommikul oma tulemused avaldas ja analüütikute ootusi ületas. Hetkel käib konverentsikõne ning positiivseid kommentaare on jagatud just deepwater driling osas. Suurtest võiks see mõjutada ka Transoceanit(RIG).
  • Ning 'väiksematest' tegijatest mõjutab see veel kindlasti ka Drillquipi(DRQ).
  • Ilmselt oleks ka FTI olnud selle peale mäng, kuna firma käibest ca 50% moodustavad tootmisüsteemid (sh ka deepwater) ning väike osa käibest tuleb ka SLB taskust. Samuti on graafik päris terav..

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