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Börsipäev 26. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Baltic Morning News

     

    Estonia and Latvia posted declining unemployment rates in Q4. According to national statistics offices, Estonia’s Q4 unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%, and Latvia’s corresponding figure was 6.2%. In Estonia, the annual average unemployment rate was lower than that in 1992 when it was 3.7%. As both countries are about to reach full employment level, the lack of workforce will be one factor to slow down the red-hot economies.

    Vilniaus Baldai makes loss in January. The Lithuanian furniture maker Vilniaus Baldai posted January net loss of LTL 0.298m (EUR 0.086m), while a year ago it made a profit of LTL 0.203m (EUR 0.059m). Sales in January (reported earlier) came in at LTL 10.489m (EUR 3.037m), up 4.1% y-o-y. The EBITDA totalled LTL 0.8m (EUR 0.23m), while a year ago it was LTL 1.3m (EUR 0.38m). It seems that the company is picking up in sales, while the bottom-line remains pressured by rapid wage inflation.

    Baltika (Neutral) Q4 expected tomorrow. The Estonian clothing retailer will post its Q4 profit figures on Tuesday before market opening, i.e. before 10:00 Estonian time. The Q4 sales increased 47.4% y-o-y to EUR 17.933 (already reported on monthly basis). We are looking for Q4 gross profit of EUR 9.506m, equal to a margin of 53.0%. Our forecasted Q4 Pre-Tax profit is EUR 1.274, corresponding to a margin of 7.1%.

    Latvians and Lithuanians more innovative than Estonians. The European Commission measured the level of innovations in European countries and reached the conclusion that Latvia and Lithuania (group 3) are more innovative than Estonia (group 4). The countries were divided into four groups as such that first group includes the most innovative countries. Nordic countries were on the top. The funny thing is that Estonians have actually always considered themselves as quite innovative (e-government, e-voting, m-parking, Skype, etc).

    IPO speculation. Three shareholders of Arco Vara bought back the shares they had issued to Hansabank in 2005. The transaction amounted to EUR 11.6m (Hansabank paid EUR 10m for the shares in 2005). Arco Vara specializes in real estate construction, development and investments and the company has been one of the possible IPO candidates in Tallinn.

    We expect Harju Elekter, Starman, Apranga, LASCO and Latvijas Gaze to report this week.

  • Palun kas saaks lingi tsiteeritud innovatsiooniuuringule?
    Tänud
  • The funny thing is that Estonians have actually always considered themselves as quite innovative (e-government, e-voting, m-parking, Skype, etc).

    E - pole enam innovatsioon ;) maailma silmis on juba tegu leierkastiga. Täna saab siis elektrooniliselt hääletada!
  • Mina hääletasin ID kaardiga 38 sekki tagasi ;)
  • Tubli momentum! Allpoololevat linki lugedes peaks kõik endast vähegi lugupidavad investorid Sinu eeskuju järgima:

    http://www.tarkinvestor.ee/foorum/viewtopic.php?t=490

    e-valimised tapavad kallutatud jõud :)
  • Üldiselt ma väga imestaks kui aktiivsus tuleb madalam kui eelmiste valimiste ajal - ID kaardi lugejad ju nii läpakatel küljes kui kaunis odavalt poest saada.
    Eelneva lingi kohta:
    Seda enam, et vähemalt 2 erakonda on öelnud otseselt välja, et teevad selle teoks... 1 ettepanek väga lihtne ja arusaadav, 2 keeruliseks aetud ja väga kallutatav.
  • Mina olen dumbass. Kuidas on E-valimised seotud soodsama investeerimisseadusandlusega? Valimised laiemalt küll, aga spetsiifiliselt E-valimised mitte.

    Minu loogika miks valisin just ID kaardiga: Lähen nagunii hääletama. Toimuvad E-valimised. Õnnestunud E-valimised toovad palju head publicity´t Eestile maailmas. Any publicity is good publicity. Seega kuna lähen nagunii valima, siis pigem valin ID kaardiga, sest lisaks oma hääle andmisele saan mööda minnes ka väikese heateo teha :) Kes kavatsevad nagunii valima minna ja vähegi ID-kaardiga hääletamise võimalust on, siis pigem soovitaks ID kaardiga hääletada. Lisaks tahtsin näha milline see hääletamise süsteem on ja kuidas ta töötab.

    Tegelikult ma arvan, et soodsad otsused tulevad. See lause on väga julgustav: "Seoses vajadusega viia tulumaksusüsteem 2009. aastaks kooskõlla ema- ja tütaräriühingute direktiiviga on Sõerdi sõnul rahandusministeeriumis välja töötatud võimalikud tulumaksusüsteemi muutmise variandid, mis lahendaksid ka nimetatud ebavõrdse kohtlemise probleemi.
    ". Mitu maksuseadustikku puudutavat otsust oleks loogiline korraga ellu viia.
  • Seisuga 26. veebruar kell 11:00 oli hääletajaid 2275

    Ka olen hääletuse teinud. Nõustun momentumiga, et õnnestunud e-valimised on hea - publicity.
    Pluss kokkuhoid ajas, mis kuluks valimisjaoskonda minekuks - samas kaotus, ei saa suhelda valimise korraldajatega :)
  • Rakuc, kust sa nii operatiivselt infot valinute kohta saad?
  • Vabariigi valimiskomisjoni lehelt või siis siit: http://www.valimised.ee/
    see küll ei uuene iga minut kuskil 10-20min intervallidega uuendatakse.
  • See uudis käis ka meediast läbi:

    Huvi e-hääletamise vastu kasvab
    Vabariigi Valimiskomisjon tegi kokkuvõtte elektroonilise proovihääletuse tulemustest. Ühtekokku kasutas seda võimalust 3925 inimest.

    Noorim hääletaja oli 17-aastane, vanim 93. Kõige rohkem oli huvilisi vanuses kuni 29 aastat (27,6%); mehi hääletas 72,4%, naisi 27,6%. Kuigi hääletajaid oli ka öösel, katsetati proovihääletust enamasti päevasel ajal ja õhtul. Tipptundideks kujunesid ajavahemikud kella 15 – 17 ja 19 – 22.

    Ise eeldan, et e-hääletajaid tuleb kuskil 15 ja 25 tuhande vahel :)
  • ;)
    Seisuga 26. veebruar kell 11:15 oli hääletajaid 2463 (lihtsalt meenutuseks)
    kui ise hääletasin siis oli kell pärast 10.45 ja e-hääletajaid oli umbes 1940. Seega poole tunniga 500 lisahäält.
  • 4582 häält juba, kruvib vist tõesti 20000 juurde ära
  • ;) ok, on küll valimised olulised aga statistika kolinud valimiste teema alla.
    Ei tahtnud ise ka päevateemat valimistega rohkem koormata.
  • Deutsche Securities upgrades Coca-Cola(KO) from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’($50>$57)
    Goldman Sachs upgrades Red Hat(RHT) from ‘Sell’ to ‘Neutral’
    Citigroup upgrades Merck(MRK) from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’
    RBC Capital Markets upgrades Research in Motion(RIMM) from ‘Sector Perform’ to ‘Outperform’
    Prudential upgrades St. Jude Medical(STJ) from ‘Underweight’ to ‘Neutral’($38>$44)

    UBS downgrades ‘Cypress Semi’ from ‘Buy’ to ‘Neutral’.
    Railroad stocks downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight at Bear Stearns

    Algav nädal on ka majandusuudiste poolest üpriski rikas - muu statistika hulgas avaldatakse teisipäeval kestvuskaupade ning olemasolevate majade müüginäit, kolmapäeval uute majade oma ning samuti 4. kvartali SKP uuendatud näit
  • Vihjeid Florida kinnisvara turu nõrkusest on tulnud muidugi ka varem, kuid JPM ütleb praegu otse välja, et nõrkus võiks jätkuda 2007. aastal.

    JMP says that theye spent several days in South Florida visiting primarily coastal condominium markets, and their visit suggests that the worst is yet to come in Florida. Firm believes that a drop in base prices is the next leg of the downturn in the Florida mkt. Many builders ramped up their exposure in terms of land or entered the Florida market through acquisition over the 2003-05 time frame, and thus must have acquired much of their land position at high prices. Given that most have not yet reported material write-downs in Florida, firm believes that meaningful write-downs will likely come later this year. Firm says the builders with the largest Florida exposure are WCI, MHO, and TOL.
  • Turud hommikul plussis - kaasa aitab sellele ka reede õhtune teade TXU ülevõtmisest KKR ja Texas Pacificu poolt. Tegu on ühe maailma suurima private-equity tehinguga ning usutakse, et TXU eest pakutakse kuni $32 miljardit, mis tõlgendukb $69.25 aktsiahinnas.

    Hetkel läbiviidaval konverentsikõnel nimetab juhtkond pakkumist sõnadega " A truly significant bid in the company's history..." ja rõhutab, et ettevõtte ja kogu utilitite sektorite jaoks seisavad ees otsustavad ajad, mil tuleb teha valikuid odava energia pakkumise ning keskkonna nõuetega kaasaskäimise vahel.
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    As Traders Take More Risks, What to Watch

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/26/2007 8:18 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "A man sits as many risks as he runs."

    -- Henry David Thoreau

    Last week traders were more willing to take on increased risk to catch some gains. Until recently the market rally had primarily been driven by big conservative stocks such as General Electric and Coca-Cola. These stocks have begun to falter, as we can see from the relative weakness of the DJIA, and traders have turned to small-caps and semiconductors.

    Small-caps and semiconductors are more risky because they tend to be more volatile than the broader market. They have a higher "beta," which simply means they are expected to move more than as the market moves compared to other groups of stocks.

    When market participants are optimistic, they are often more aggressive in trading high-beta stocks because they produce bigger and faster returns. If you believe the market is going to go up then you want to buy those stocks that are going to move up the fastest. Usually that is groups like small-caps and semiconductors, which tend to have high growth and more aggressive valuations than big-cap "value" stocks.

    What is particularly interesting about this relative strength in higher-betas stocks is that it comes fairly late in the rally. We have been rallying for over six months now with big-caps leading most of the way. Small-caps haven't done badly but they have been led more by value than growth. On the other hand, until the last two days semiconductors have done nothing since September.

    Is this late surge in stocks with more risk a recognition by the market that they represent good values compared to the broader market? Or is it frustrated, underperforming investors who are trying to make up ground by chasing beta? The timing of this surge in chips and small-caps is a bit worrisome because it has been so long since there has been any significant pullback in the major indices. It has the feel of being more of a high-wire performance than an early stage breakout, and that carries more risk.

    The problem for market players is that when aggressive investors are intent on chasing more volatile stocks it can last for a while and drive things much further than seems reasonable. Investors seeking to bolster returns as the market runs away from them are not risk-adverse. They worry that sitting on the sidelines and being cautious carries far greater risk in the form of underperformance than the risk of chasing strong stocks and being caught in a quick reversal.

    So that is the dilemma we face as we kick off the week. Do we play the momentum game and chase the high-beta stocks as market players try to pick up some gains, or do we become more cautious as speculative action dominates? It is a fine line and the best way to deal with it is to keep time frames short and be ready to move fast as conditions change. Keep a close watch on semiconductors. They are primed to gap up for the third day in a row and whether they can continue to build on this breakout will be an overall tell on the market.

    We have a positive open this morning as strength in oil, commodities and steel drove overseas markets. We have some deal news helping the mood as well but overall it looks like typical Monday morning optimism.
    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CRDN +5.1%, XMSR +4.0%... M&A: TXU +13.5% (KKR to acquire TXU for $69.25/share), DOW +8.8% (to get private equity bid - Sunday Express), STN +4.0% (confirms it will be acquired by Fertitta Colony Partners for $90/share)... Other news: CNLG +9.7% (momentum - note that stock gave up most of its gains on Friday though), TIN +9.7% (announces plan to separate into 3 stand-alone public co's & to sell its strategic timberland), STTS +8.3% (STTS and SPIL rise on Nomura's upgrade - Bloomberg), SOLF +6.8% (positive mention in technical newsletter), MRK +3.5% (trading up after rival NVS says FDA wants more data on Galvus), CYTR +4.0% (enters into scientific advisory board agreements with "key" RNAi scientists), CHTR +4.0% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), CELL +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: GEHL -6.9%... Other news: CPTS -8.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC), ARRS -6.5% (ERIC offer for Norway's Tandberg Television beats ARRS offer), UTHR -4.8% (announces pulmonary hypertension opinion leaders' guidance on intravenous therapies; also CE Unterberg downgrade to Mkt Perform), NVS -2.9% (FDA wants more data on Galvus diabetes drug, new trial needed), OVTI -1.7% (Hambrecht previews Q4, believes recent rally in stock is likely overdone).
  • USA turgudel on ka veidi närvilisemaks läinud. Hetkel kui neid ridu kirjutan VIX 11.40 juures +7.75% siis tänase päevaga. Kõik kolm indeksit teinud väikse jõnksu allapoole, aga suuremat liikumist allapoole küll näha ei oska. Aasta algusest siiamaani on kõik allapoole jõnksud uuesti ilusti üles ostetud. Aga lõputult ei saa see pidu loomulikult edasi kesta.
  • ...ja läheb nii nagu aasta tagasi , panustage langusele.
    QDI näiteks täna + 1,7 %.
  • Parandan dol'i sümboli osas siinkohal, et tegu ikkagi QID-ga, mis on ka meie PRO soovitus. Kuna tegu võimendusega langusele panustamisel, on võimalik seda kasutada nii kauplemisel kui kaasata ka investeerimisportfelli turu üldise languse kaitseks.
  • Kasutan pidevalt turu liikumisel QID kui turg langeb ja QLD kui turg tõuseb. Kuna mõlemad on võimendusega siis saab turu liikumist meeldvalt oma kasuks pöörata. Pole tähtis kuhu liigub, oluline, et liigub!

    Aitähh Joel ,et mu vea parandasid.

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