Börsipäev 9. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Unemployment Rate 4.5% vs 4.6% consensus
Nonfarm Payrolls 97K vs 100K consensus
Average Workweek 33.7 vs 33.8 consensus
Trade Balance -$59.1bln vs -$60 bln consensus -
Watch for This Market Wave to Subside
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/9/2007 7:50 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"A man is happy so long as he chooses to be happy and nothing can stop him."
Alexander Solzenitsyn
Sharp market dips and bounces likes we have experienced lately always produce a lot of talk about what caused the sudden moves. In the past week we have heard talk about such things as difficulties in the subprime mortgage lending market, the unwinding of the yen carry trade, technical glitches at the New York Stock Exchange, Alan Greenspan's predictions of a recession, China's efforts to cool speculation, and so on.
This sort of action gives market pundits and commentators great fodder. They embrace or dismiss some or all of these reasons and then tell us why this or that reason is important or not. Some will tell us subprime lending issues are too minor to matter while others will tell us that it's the real problem is the economy.
The real reason the market corrected is because it was ready to. It would have found a reason to do what it did one way or the other. Most market commentators have things backwards and believe that events cause the market to move, rather than the mood of the market makes certain events important.
The explanation for the recent market action is really quite easy to understand. We had been running straight up for quite some time and were due for a pullback as things had become too extended and too complacent. It is simply the natural cycle of the market to ebb and flow. It has always existed and always will. The actual news is just a convenient explanation that the media latches on to so they can sound insightful and profound.
If you think about the market ups and downs in terms of a natural cycle like ocean waves breaking and retreating, it helps you appreciate why a quick recovery after the recent meltdown just doesn't feel right. True market corrections that wash out the recent excess don't occur in a simple fashion. A one-day dip and immediately recovery only serves to scare us for a little while. The market is seldom that kind, and the ebbing that occurs usually lasts longer and has a greater impact. -
McAdamsi poolne nägemus Cutter & Buckist.
McAdams Wright Ragen notes CBUK reported 3Q07 EPS of $0.03, missing firm's $0.05 est and the consensus of $0.04 per share. Revs declined 3.1% YoY, primarily due to a difficult prior year comparison as the co cleared a large amount of discontinued items at reduced prices in 3Q06. Notably, firm says the consumer direct business increased over 45%. Mgmt believes underlying trends are intact and most channels should show growth in 4Q07 and FY08. Firm continues to believe CBUK will show leverage going forward as sales volumes improve and it capitalizes on investments made in its operations over the last 12 months. Their 4Q07 EPS est decreases and firm's full year est declines. Firm continue to rate CBUK Buy, though their tgt decreases to $13.50 from $15.00.
Ülespoole avanevad:
JSDA +17.5%, BIG +16.0%, AVAV +8.7% (also mentioned positively by Cramer), NSM +5.2%, OMRI +3.4%... Other news: WXH +8.8% (receives unsolicited buyout offer for $15.00 per share), ACH + 4.8%, EAT +4.2% (upgraded at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
PSPT -34.6%, ZQK -15.5%, ENCY -14.6%, GMKT -14.3%, LMRA -6.6%... Continued weakness in sub-prime following update from NEW: NFI -5.7%, NEW -3.1% (NEW provided update, ceased accepting loan applications), LEND -2.6%... Other news: DSTI -3.1% (files 10-KSB for fiscal year 2006), ALTI -3.4% (estimates cut at WR Hambrecht following yesterday morning's earnings), YHOO -2.5% (WSJ reports AT&T may alter Yahoo pact). -
Väike graafik tänasest CACi liikumisest. Hüpe on kell 15.30 avaldatud USA majandusstatistika peale.
-
Siin foorumis jooksid korra läbi Saksamaal eurodes kaubeldavad võimendusega USA indeksaktsiad. Kui kellelgi infot paluks tähiseid.
-
Saksa turult on pakkuda:
EXXT indexchange nasdaq-100
EXI3 Doe Jones Indus.Average
Eurodes on kaubeldavad veel Ishares S&P500 (IUSA), Lyxori DowJones ETF (DJE) ja Lyxori ETF Nasdaq 100 (UST) -
Kiire kommentaar ka Gmarketi eileõhtustele tulemustele, mis külma dušina paljudele investoritele kaela sadas. Kasumi osas jäädi 3 sendiga ootustele alla ning müügitulu näidati $51.5 miljonit vs oodatud $58.2 miljonit. Ühe peamise põhjusena nimetas juhtkond just detsembris oodatust madalamat interneti teel ostmist. Keskmisest soojem ilm soodustas inimestel internetti minemise asemel ise poodidesse minna.
Alla ootuste tulemustest ehk hullem on aga just juhtkonna maine ja usutavus. Juba teist kvartalit järjest on ettevõtte juhtkond prognoosinud kõrgemat kauba läbimüüki (GMV-d), kui see on reaalsuseks saanud. GMV prognoosid 2007. aasta 1. kvartali ja 2007. aasta täisaasta osas on aga päris korralikud – turg suhtub neisse nüüd aga skeptiliselt ning usutavust saab GMKT’i juhtkond taastada vaid 1. kvartali tulemuste õige prognoosimisega. Seega lähiajal ootaks aktsiahinna volatiilset liikumist, kuid fundamentaalnäitajad ning kasvuperspektiiv on Gmarketi jaoks jätkuvalt paigas.
Kommenteerin tulemusi põhjalikumalt varsti ka Pro all.
