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Börsipäev 29. märts

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  • Briefing.com tehnilise pildi ülevaade. Eilne langus oli ilmselt paljudele üllatuseks.

    Eilse hoiatuse peale kaupleb eelturul MFLX üle 7% madalamal. Motorola weakness ei ole ilmselt eriti suur üllatus. Kuigi chart näeb "katkine" välja, usun, et juba suur negatiivsus võib pakkuda ostjatele võimaluse.

    Thomas Weisel confirmed that Apple will begin ramping production of LED notebooks in 2Q with modest volumes. They say Other top-tier vendors, like Dell and HP, are set to begin ramping initial production in 2H07. While volumes are likely to remain relatively small in 2007, firm thinks greater penetration should bode well for LED suppliers like Supertex (SUPX 33.31), Cree (CREE 16.56) and Nichia...

    IBD kirjutab, et MOT, INTC promovad oma toodete puhsimiseks WiMax tehnoloogiat. Sektori väiksemad esindajad Alvarion (ALVR), Airspan Networks (AIRN). IBD reports while telecom carriers put finishing touches on third-generation cellular networks, Motorola, Intel (INTC), Clearwire (CLWR) and others are promoting an alternative wireless system that uses the WiMax technology. But WiMax backers are eyeing a bigger bounty, hoping to work with the big wireless carriers by getting them to use WiMax in addition to 3G. The pitch is that adding WiMax would let the carriers offer bells and whistles for mobile phones, such as video messaging. Motorola seeks WiMax adoption in order to boost sales of its telecom network gear. In the 3G gear mkt, it's fallen behind LM Ericsson (ERIC) and is about even with Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and Nokia (NOK), according to Prudential Equity Group. Also, Motorola is developing WiMax-enabled cell phones, so adopting WiMax would boost those sales. Motorola says it's also working on WiMax projects with carriers in Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Netherlands.

    BofA resumes CVS/Caremark (CVS 33.95) with a Buy and sets a $45 tgt, as they believe CVS should see outsized benefits from the growth of the prescription drug market and expansion of drug coverage with its enhanced services and lower prices

    CIBC initiates Cardinal Health (CAH 72.57) with a Sector Outperformer and sets a $86 tgt, as the sale of its PTS unit by June's end should generate $3.1 bln (net of tax), which they expect Cardinal to use to fund some type of accelerated share repurchase program.

    Pali Research upgrades Warner Music Group (WMG 15.90) to Neutral from Sell, based on valuation. Misasi on Pali Research? Ei ole kunagi kuulnud ja ilmselt see call ka mingit erilist huvi ei tekita, kuid viimasel ajal on aktsiat agressiivsemalt shorditud.

    CIBC continues to be bullish on the commerical aerospace upcycle given strong global demand, reasonable valuations and visibility through 2010. This report focuses on the health of the current backlogs at both Boeing and Airbus as well as the order demand still percolating in the system. Firm says production forecasts are virtually 100% full at both OEMs through 2009, which suggests upward pressure to boost production rates will continue. They hope OEMs will exercise restraint in production rates to lengthen, though firm isn't convinced that BA and Airbus see eye-to-eye. Firm reiterates their Overweight stance on Aerospace and Defense, seeing solid demand coupled with reasonable expectations. They also anticipate solid order demand through the Paris Air Show in June.

    Jefferies believes several M&A announcements and speculations of pending Internet deals in the last week reflect the good health of the Internet segment and bode well for valuations for Internet assets. They like RATE on the recent pullback and believe that investors' concerns regarding its exposure to the subprime debacle are overblown.

    Prudential believes WOLF is relatively inexpensive as they remain comfortable with our estimates and management guidance. As private equity interest remains high in the lodging/leisure space, the firm continues to view WOLF as a potential takeout candidate.

  • Minu arust 27. veebruari suur kukkumine oli piisav hoiatus, et tõus ei ole jätkusuutlik.
  • kvartali lõpuks ostetakse nats üles:(!
  • T. Boone Pickens on ikka nafta teemadel sõna võtnud ja täna tegi ta seda CNBC vahendusel taas. Ütlen kohe ära, et tegu on paraja naftapulliga. Varude 7-nädalased järjestikused vähenemised viitavad, et pakkumine pole sugugi nii suur, kui seda paljud arvavad. Ütleb, et ca 90% hinnast on õigustatud fundamentaalsete näitajatega ning ainult 10% geopoliitiliste pingetega. Kuna suvelõpu nafta tippude ca $80 juures räägiti, et geopoliitilised pinged on nafta hinnale lisanud vähemalt $20, siis oleks praegustelt tasemetelt puhtalt pingete suurenemise arvelt ülespoole ruumi veel küll ja küll.

    Üldjoontes ootab väga huvitavat aastat energia jaoks.

    Says if you look at inventories, we have gone down 7 straight weeks so the market is very tight, along with the Iran situation. Getting ready to look at $70 oil pretty quick. Says 90% fundamentals and 10% geopolitical. Thinks gas mkt will stay tight. Says the refining infrastructure is old. Says the 85 mln bpd is all the world can produce, doesn't think that the Saudis can be the "white knight" to this situation. Thinks all they can do is where they have it. Says if Straits of Hormuz (the main waterway in the Middle East where most of world's oil flows through) were to become blocked, says oil hits $100 "easy". Says if it got blocked (the strait at its narrowest is 21 miles wide) oil would go straight up. Says oil hits $75 before it hits $55. Believes that ethanol is on its way. Going to see a lot more corn grown this year. Says going to be a very interesting year for energy.
    ---
    Hoidmaks end kursis naftaväljade läheduses toimuvate sündmustega, tasub jälgida Iraaniga seonduvate küsimuste arenemist. Täna teatas Iraan, et varasemalt vabastada lubatud 1 Suurbritannia naissoost mereseilaja Faye Turney jäetakse vahi alla ikkagi edasi. Põhjuseks Londoni poolt üles näidatud ‘ebakorrektne suhtumine’.
  • 1.kvartal hakkab lõpule jõudma ning mõne nädala jooksul võib oodata esimesi tulemusteteatajaid - seni tuleb aga oodata. Realmoney's kirjutav Cody Willard tõmbab praeguse majade ülejäägi ja eelmise aasta pooljuhtide ülejäägi vahel häid paralleele.

    Painting the Earnings Picture

    By Cody Willard
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/29/2007 9:18 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Cody Willard

    Iran is causing some serious worries about what will happen next in the Middle East. Oil is comfortably back into the $60s.

    GDP was a little higher than some economists had expected, but they guessed about right on inflation, according to the latest revised, recalculated and readjusted data released by the government.

    Subprime remains ugly, and housing inventories are spiking to obscene levels, making last year's semiconductor inventory gluts seem minor.

    But what about the earnings picture? The bears continue to have a big advantage, as earnings season is around the corner and there will be little outright fundamental earnings data for the next few weeks. In the meantime, those bears can and will paint the macroeconomic data flow as boding poorly for earnings, the economy, the market and probably society, too.

    Neither bulls nor bears seem overextended sentiment-wise, though. The bears aren't exactly high-fiving each other after the market put on that huge rally last week. But the bulls haven't been able to get in tune with the trading flow, and most are just about matching the putrid returns of the major indices so far this year. That's yet another reason why I don't like the risk/reward on either side just now.

    Earnings, guidance and the reaction to those earnings and guidance are likely to lend some new flavor to the recent market action, making stock prices a bit less dependent on geopolitical headlines and real estate's problems. But, like I said, that's still a couple of weeks away.

    Until then, tread and trade carefully.
    ---------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: TGEN +10.3%, RNO +8.3%, FTGX +6.9%... Other news: LSS +37.4% (being acquired by X for $67.50/share), CRGN +13.3% (to sell 454 Life Sciences to Roche), USBE +12.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Piper), EMIS +10.7% (study shows orally-delivered GLP-1 is able to stimulate insulin release), BCE +10.5% (Globe and Mail reports KKR is stalking BCE for takeover), HOKU +7.5% (secures $13 mln Bank of Hawaii credit facility), GOL +6.2% (last night announced the acquisition of V.R.G.), DCTH +4.4% (signed extension with the National Cancer Institute), CMGI +3.5.

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: RFMD -8.4%, ATMI -8.2%, MFLX -7.1%, KMX -6.5%, MOV -5.2%, RECN -4.4%, CHINA -3.3%, NBR -3.0%, KRY -2.8% (also profit taking after yesterday's ~29% gain)... Other news: INSU (plans to exit the tunneling business, will recognize charge), IMAX -6.5% (to delay filing of 2006 10-K), GRZ -4.4% (profit taking), DSX -3.8% (priced 8.25 mln share follow-on offering at $17), AGIX -3.6% (continued weakness).
  • Ja nafta saab hoogu juurde. Sedapuhku on tulnud teateid Nigeeria presidendivalimiste(aprillis) ühe kandidaadi surmast. Sellised uudised ühe nafta suurtootja poolt on just see, mis lisab tarnete võimalikule ebakindlusele.

    As mentioned at 12:00, crude saw a quick intraday spike to 65.50. The move in oil corresponds with reports of the death of a Nigerian presidential candidate. Reuters is reporting that Nigerian elections will be held as scheduled despite the death. Nigeria is a major oil producer (Nigeria produces 2.18 mln bopd), so any potential uncertainties in the region could be viewed as bullish for crude oil... The spike in crude also took out the key $65 technical level, adding to the momentum. Crude oil has pulled off its session highs, currently trading at 65.23 +1.15.
  • Kostitan teid täna küll pisut vanade uudistega, kuid tahan korra tagasi tulla kivisöe juurde – maavara, mille kaevandamise suurimaks riigiks on Hiina. Nimelt tõi esmaspäeval Merrill Lynch välja Jaapani ja Hiina erimeelsused kivisöe lepingute hindade osas. Kui reeglina on Jaapan võrreldes Hiina sisemaiste tarbijatega maksnud oluliselt kõrgemat hinda, siis sedapuhku on olukord pöördunud. Hiina energianäljas majandus põletab kivisütt täiel rinnal.

    Eelmisel nädalal tegid hiinlased jaapanlastele pakkumise müüa neile sütt $67 tonnist. Jaapan pakkus $60 ja seda kõike tingimustes, mil osad Hiina tootjad suudavad oma toodangut sisemaiselt turustada isegi kuni $80 eest tonn. Kui 2007-2008. aasta ekspordilepingu tingimusi paika ei saada, siis osad Hiina tootjad on lubanud, et Aprillis sütt ei vea.

    Merril Lynch näeb sarnaselt meile, et kivisöe fundamentaalnäitajad järgmiseks paariks aastaks on tugevad. USA börsil kaubeldavatest ettevõtetest toodi eraldi välja Peabody(BTU) nendepoolse ostusoovitusega. Peabody on ka meie LHV Pro valik, mis sobib väga hästi pikemaajalisse investeerimisportfelli kaasamiseks.
  • Täienduseks Joelile, ennustus:
    britid toovad nädalvahetusel oma mariinid jõuga Teheranist ära ja esmaspäeval näemegi nafta hinna otsas täie 20 taala eest geopoliitilist pinget.

    Ega midagi, tuleb auto paak homme pilgeni täis võtta.
  • Nestel täna jälle soodusmüük.
  • Uudist selle kohta pole olnud, kus sa seda märkasid?
  • vums mõtles, et tanklates on soodus müük.

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