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Börsipäev 5. aprill

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    Morgan Keegan initiates Health Care REIT (HCN 44.63) with an Outperform, based on the highest yield in their coverage and a growth rate they believe has been enhanced by development and diversification efforts

    Oppenheimer initiates Champion Enterprises (CHB 8.89) with a Buy and sets a $13 tgt, as they believe CHB is well diversified and far less exposed to the present US HUD-code housing turmoil than its peers given the roughly 45% of sales from Canada, the UK and modular home sales while the co generates substantial FCF and its significant operating leverage could yield ‘09E FCF/share in excess of $1

    Goldman Sachs adds BHP Billiton (BHP 49.88) to Conviction Buy list

    Suntrust says that by all appearances, the Transaction Processing Industry should be a wonderful sector for investors today. Average organic rev growth remains above GDP, long-term secular demand trends are apparently intact, and strong economies of scale offer meaningful operating leverage potential. In addition, consolidation in the group -- and a clear bid from both strategic and financial buyers -- is active and accelerating. Firm believes that the relatively poor equity mkt performance among some of the best-positioned co's in their universe is not sustainable, particularly in light of apparently strong private equity and strategic demand. Firm's favorite ideas are, in order: RATE, ADS, CKFR, MA, PAY, WU, and GPN.

    Goldman Sachs is increasing their 2007 revenue and EBITDA estimates on Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO)

  • Kurikuulus ‘väga suurte taskutega’ investor Carl Icahn on teinud WCI Communities’ele(WCI) ülevõtupakkumise $22 pealt ning ettevõtte juhtkond on täna otsustamas, kas seda vastu võtta või mitte. WCI’d peetakse riigi kalleimate kinnisvarade ehitajaks. Icahn on ise öelnud Florida kinnisvaraturul valitseva nõrkuse kohta, et tema filosoofia ongi osta reeglina midagi siis, kui keegi teine seda ei taha. 7-8 aastat tagasi rakendati sama taktikat energiaettevõtete juures, mil enamus ei tahtnud neist midagi kuulda. Icahni arvates on majadeehitajad hetkel sarnases ebasoositud olukorras.

    Barrons on täna vahendamas Bank of America mõtteid nafta ettevõtetest ning üldjoontes leitakse, et integreeritud naftakompaniide aktsiates on keskmiselt veel vähemasti 10% tõusuruumi. Hea sõnaga mainitakse ära nii ConocoPhilips(COP), Marathon Oil(MRO), Exxon Mobil(XOM), Royal Dutch Shell(RDS-A) kui ka Chevron(CVX).
  • Tänasest Sharki kommentaarist jäid silma eelkõige just 5. ja 6. paragrahv. Tore piltikustamine.

    Test Your Dip-Buying Faith

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/5/2007 8:22 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "You can always find a distraction if you're looking for one."

    -- Tom Kite

    Many market participants are likely to be distracted today as they look ahead to a long weekend, spring vacations, the Masters golf tournament, the Easter holiday and kids off from school. Trading is likely to be thin, choppy, random and possibly devoid of meaning.

    Over the past few days we have had pretty typical holiday type trading. The mood has been upbeat and buyers have able to push the market around as they pleased. They even shrugged off some not-so-hot economic news yesterday morning and remain oblivious and unperturbed by a laundry list of worries and concerns.

    Who can blame them? Stocks continue to act well and there is money to be made. Why focus on these theoretical problems that might have an impact down the road when we can make money right now? Who isn't tired of this negativity in the face of a market that is acting just fine?

    Given the resilience of the market and the consistent success of a dip-buying approach it seems almost foolish to worry about any sort of sustained pullback. Even the Wall Street Journal in its Ahead of the Tape column today discusses how the markets keep coming back from any sort of selloff. It is not just occurring in the major U.S. indices -- "it's a worldwide phenomenon that extends to all kinds of assets."

    Tendencies such as aggressive dip buying often persist for quite a while but the sort of blithe confidence that it illustrates is worrisome. One thing I can tell you with great certainty is that at some point the dip-buying approach will fail to work. That is not even debatable. Here's the trillion dollar question: "When?"

    Trying to anticipate that answer is a good way to dig a deep, dark hole for yourself. As we all know, markets can be irrational for a long time, and no one can even say that the current action is anywhere near "irrational."

    Let's enjoy the positive action while it lasts but not allow ourselves to be sucked into the "this time it will be different" thinking that always leads to pain. The market beast is going to feast on the unwary one of these days and we need to keep that fact firmly in the back of our minds.

    We have a slightly soft open on the way as overseas markets were mixed, oil down and gold up.
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    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/comps/guidance: FFHL +17.6%, MTRX +9.3%, SCSC +7.2%, NSR +5.4%, DBRN +5.4%, DLIA +5.2%, SIMG +4.9% (guides Q1 revs to low end of range, CFO to retire), STZ +3.3%... M&A: WEBM +24.7% (to be acquired by Software AG for $9.15/share)... Other news: AMC +23.5% (completes over $113.2 mln of financing and investment volume), POSS +13.5% (receives new FDA approval for Spiroflex VG Catheter), ALDN +10.5% (wins deal to supply up to 3.8 mln Indian IT students with eToken authentication keys), ENCY +9.6% (follow-through momentum after yesterday's breakout), PLUG +8.3% (announces distribution partnership in India ), GNVC +7.1% (follow-through momentum after yesterday's breakout), BMD +6.0% (receives significant aggregate order), GROW +4.2% (momentum).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/comps/guidance: RDCM -23.9%, RACK -13.6%, RSTO -7.2%, SHLM -3.9%, HWAY -3.7%, NSC -2.6%, NTY -2.5%, ZZ -2.5%... Other news: HAYZ -26.9% (still checking... note that co reported earnings yesterday morning), ICAD -24.0% and HOLX -3.1% (NEJM publishes article that claims computer-aided detection reduces accuracy of screening mammograms), MAMA -3.4% (profit-taking following yesterday's move), CYTR -2.9% (profit-taking following yesterday's move), AHM -2.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Stearns).
  • Huvitav kommentaar lennufirmade sektorile Calyoni poolt:

    Calyon notes that it is now Spring, when investor's fancy turns to airline stocks as the industry heads into its two best quarters. They expect the whole sector to participate and all the airlines that they follow should rally. The firm would actively buy legacy carriers, including Alaska Air Group (ALK), US Airways (LCC), AMR Corp (AMR), Continental (CAL) and UAL Corp (UAUA), in that order. RASM and traffic data support the firm's investment thesis of strong operating performance producing positive EPS revisions and rising stock prices. Besides heading into the more favorable seasonal time period for airlines, they are looking at 2007 as being a solid year for airline profitability and they expect the industry to earn $5.9 bln this year, most of it coming in the second and third qtrs. In addition, they say airline stocks look cheap, being off sharply since early Jan, with the airline index down about 8% YTD.
  • Maagaasivarud kasvasid 58 bcf võrra. Analüütikud ootasid keskmiselt varude suurenemsit 54 bcfi võrra (arvamused kõikusid +33bcf-ist kuni +75 bcf-ini).

    See-eest praegune nädal on olnud keskmisest oluliselt külmem, mistõttu järgmisel nädalal avaldatud varude andmed võivad positiivselt üllatada.

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