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Börsipäev 10. aprill

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  • Indeksid on jõudnud 27. veebruari suure kukkumise eelse taseme alla.

  • Iraan pole naftatarnete seisukohast sugugi ainuke murelaps. Venetsueela president on naftavarude natsionaliseerimise tõsiselt ette võtnud.

    NY Times reports with President Hugo Chavez setting a May 1 deadline for an ambitious plan to wrest control of several major oil projects from American and European cos, a showdown is looming here over access to some of the most coveted energy resources outside the Middle East. Moving beyond empty threats to cut off all oil exports to the U.S. officials have recently stepped up the pressure on the oil cos operating here, warning that they might sell American refineries meant to process Venezuelan crude oil even as they seek new outlets in China and elsewhere around the world. But this confrontation could easily end up with everyone losing. The biggest energy cos could be squeezed out of the most promising oil patch in the Western Hemisphere. But Venezuela risks undermining the engine behind Mr. Chavez's socialist-inspired revolution by hampering its ability to transform the nation's newly valuable heavy oil into riches for years to come.

    Kui paar päeva tagasi on Iraan kuulutanud, et uraani toodetakse tööstuslikul tasemel, on Venemaa täna esinemas avaldusega, et nad ei usu, et Iraanil oleks selle läbiviimiseks vajalikke vahendeid.

    Reuters reports Russia has no evidence Iran has made any technological breakthroughs to allow it to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, Russia's foreign ministry said on Tuesday. "We naturally treat with all seriousness the announcement that Iran has begun enriching uranium on an industrial scale," ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said in a statement. "At the same time, we are not aware of any technological breakthroughs in the Iranian nuclear program recently which would change the nature of work on enrichment being carried out in the country." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Tuesday he believed the new centrifuges were not yet in full operation. "We are clarifying the situation, including in contact with experts from the IAEA," said Lavrov. "For now we do not have confirmation that actual enrichment has begun on the new centrifuges."

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: DIVX +15.7%, CHRD +9.4%, MYL +4.7%... Small-cap Biotechs up on follow-through momentum, news, & ahead of today's BIO-Windhover Conference presentations: MEMY +33.5%, RNVS +24.7% (co and Pfizer extend research collaboration), PCOP +17.9% (PS433540 shown to be well tolerated and potentially suited for once daily administration), NUVO +10.1% (continued momentum from yesterday; also BofA says DNDN progenge news may have helped NUVO - Bloomberg), TGEN +11.6%, INCY +9.1% (positive comments from Cramer), GTOP +7.5%, GLGC +7.1%, PCYC +6.5%, LJPC +6.4%, DNDN +5.6% (shorts continue to get squeezed), TELK +5.4% (announces Telcyta presentations at AACR meeting), PGNX 5.0 (seen as beneficiary of failure of GSK's Entereg safety trial), LJPC 4.9 (initiated with a Buy and $11 tgt at A.G Edwards)... Other news: TLCV +11.3% (to repurchase up to 20 mln common shares in tender offer), LUNA +9.3% (receives $1.6 mln contract), ROSE +7.6% (positive comments from Cramer).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: HPOL -12.4%, CACH -8.6%, VAL -6.4%, STX -5.6% (also downgraded to Buy at Needham... down in sympathy WDC -1.9%), MOS -5.5% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at BMO), LWSN -2.0%... Other news: ADLR -54.4% (announces development program for OBD on hold while findings from safety study are evaluated; also multiple downgrades), GSX -16.3% (announces a 10 mln share common stock offering), NKTR -3.8% (NY Times reports that PFE/NKTR's "Exubera, the inhaled-insulin for Diabetes is lagging"), IMAX -3.0% (receives Nasdaq staff determination letter), AGEN -2.6% (profit-taking after yesterday's 43% surge).
  • Tulemuste hooaeg on algamas - täna järelturul teatab oma finantstulemused Alcoa(AA). Shark hoiatab omalt poolt, et kuigi tulemuste peale mängimine võib olla ahvatlev, meenutab see tihti ruletilaua taga istumist.

    Don't Think You Can Game Earnings

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/10/2007 8:33 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Don't wait for extraordinary opportunities. Seize common occasions and make them great. Weak men wait for opportunities; strong men make them."

    -- Orison Swett Marden

    Earnings season starts tonight with a report from Alcoa followed later this week by reports from RIMM, Best Buy and GE. The great bulk of earnings kicks in next Tuesday and most of the S&P 500 will report within two weeks after that.

    The big question for us is how we position ourselves as earnings reports hit. Many market players tend to feel that because earnings often serve as a catalyst for a big move that the smart play is to take positions in front of the news. Unfortunately, that often is nothing more than just a gamble without any discernable edge.

    Investors often fool themselves into believing they have some special insight into earnings. Even though analysts and huge funds who talk to management every day are incapable of consistently predicting earnings and how they may play out, many average investors who rely on Yahoo! message boards for information are confident that they know what is going to happen as earnings reports hit.

    The fact that it is nothing more than a coin toss and that they may get it right just by chance is what makes this thinking particularly dangerous. After getting lucky a few times with a bet on earnings, many investors are emboldened and become increasingly aggressive in trying to find opportunities from which to profit.

    The one big thing that most of them fail to consider is that even if they are correct that a company may issue a good report, many other investors are likely to think the same thing. So they tend to bid up the stock in front of the report and if things do turn out as hoped there is inclination to sell the news and lock in gains quickly.

    Predicting what a company might report is only half the battle; you also need to predict how a stock will react. There is not always a direct correlation between a "good" report and positive price action.

    There is still plenty of action during earnings season for the aggressive investor even if you resist the temptation to bet on earnings reports. Buying or shorting after a report has been issued can be a very effective strategy; the market seldom fully prices in the full impact of news immediately. If you are familiar with a company and study the report, you can often make some excellent trades by aggressively buying after the news is out. Even if a stock moves up sharply it can continue to move for days as the market gradually revalues the situation.

    There is no need to make wild gambles during earnings season. There will be plenty of opportunities after news has been issued to make some money. Unfortunately, there will always be those who just can't resist the temptation to make bold bets even when they have no edge. (And it is often these undisciplined folks who make trades after the fact much more profitable.)

    We have a quiet start this morning with very little news on the wires. Asian stocks were mostly down while Europe was up on some deal news. Oil is bouncing back a little after a huge drop yesterday and gold continues its upward march after a slight hiccup. Goldman has removed Microsoft from its "Conviction Buy List."
  • DHI juhi kommentaar aastaks 2007:

    "I don't want to be too sophisticated here, but '07 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year." -- Donald Tomnitz, D.R. Horton CEO

    DHI: a 32% cancellation rate and orders down 37%

    DR Horton reports net sales orders for the Q2 (22.04 ) : Co reported net sales orders for the second quarter ended March 31, 2007 of 9,983 homes ($2.6 billion), compared to 15,771 homes ($4.4 billion) for the same quarter of fiscal 2006. "Market conditions for new home sales continue to be challenging in most of our markets as inventory levels of both new and existing homes remain high. Our cancellation rate is essentially unchanged from the prior quarter, but it remains above our historical range as we continue to see an increase in the use of sales incentives in many of our markets."

     

  • Fedi fisher tunnistab, et inflatsiooni osas ollakse valvsad ning USA majandus on aeglustumas.
  • AA Alcoa beats by $0.02, ex items, beats on revs

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.79 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.77; revenues rose 0.9% year/year to $7.91 bln vs the $7.77 bln consensus. CEO comments, "Alcoans have delivered another strong quarter of top and bottom line growth, productivity improvements in cost of goods and overhead, and a dramatic improvement in cash flow from last year's first quarter. Our focus on higher value-added solutions, such as aerospace products, and productivity programs helped to continue our momentum this quarter."

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