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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 23. aprill

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    Goldman Sachs upgrades Valero (VLO 65.93) to Buy from Neutral

    UBS upgrades Juniper Networks (JNPR 20.52) to Buy from Neutral

    SPWR Sunpower tgt raised to $70 from $52 at Merrill

    BTU Peabody Energy upgraded to Buy from Hold at AG Edwards

    Nollenberger believes there are three critical issues surrounding AMD in 2007-cash, private equity, and the x86 copyright. Net/net, they say the terms of the $2.2 bln MS 2006 Term Loan for AMD now appear onerous. They note that the loan can be restructured, but the backdrop is a polar opposite from the environment in the fall of 2006 to command any terms that could be benign for AMD. They think the $2.2 bln loan that must be satisfied is a tall order in and of itself; add the cash flow dynamic and they think they have a problem. Firm also notes that a private equity engagement, which could include a change of ownership, would trigger a change in the control provision of the MS 2006 Term Loan; this would transfer the loan of $2.2 bln to interested parties.

    Roth lowers their tgt on NFLX to $17 from $20.50 noting that the co reported 1Q07 results in-line with analyst expectations but mgmt lowered rev guidance for FY07. Firm says Blockbuster's new Total Access program has slowed Netflix' new-subscriber pipeline dramatically and is forcing the co to squander much of its massive marketing outlay. Firm says NFLX's niche in the home video market will remain strong, but the co's competitive advantage has eroded and growth will likely normalize in 2008. They believe electronic rental continues to face considerable resistance from both content creators and consumers.

    Piper Jaffray downgrades Amazon (AMZN)

    Citigroup downgrades ConocoPhillips (COP) and ExxonMobil (XOM)

    Lehman upgrades IBM (IBM)

  • Briefing.com on kommenteerimas mitmeid reedel oma tulemused teatanud ettevõtteid. Usun, et paljusid LHV foorumlasi võiks huvitada Briefing.com’i meeskonna nägemus neist.

    Reedel kirjutasin Caterpillarist(CAT), kes lõi jõuliselt analüütikute oodatud kasuminumbreid ja tõstis oma fiskaalaasta prognooside vahemikku. Kui reeglina on ettevõte oma prognoosides olnud pigem konservatiivne, siis nüüd on võetud pisut optimistlikum tulevikuvaade. Briefing.com’i meeskond usub, et ka praeguste tasemete pealt ostes on aktsias veel pikaajaline korralik upside täiesti olemas.

    CAT is a direct beneficiary of the global ramp in capital spending for exploration and production within the commodity and energy sectors, making it an attractive long-term investment in our view. Our bullish bias towards CAT has always been based on its global market presence, diversified business, and depth of products, leaving it less exposed to a downturn in one particular area. While global growth should offset NA weakness, a higher cost environment will be its Achilles heel.

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    McDonald’s(MCD) avanes tulemustejärgselt gap’iga üles, kuid kukkus seejärel alla tagasi. 62-sendine EPS vastas ootustele ning ka müügitulu ei valmistanud pettumusi. Võrreldavate poodide müüginumbrid Euroopas olid tugevad ning ka Ladina-Ameerika näitajad valmistasid hea üllatuse.

    Briefing.com: We continue to view the stock as a good investment as the company has been consistent with solid sales and operational momentum.

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    Pfizer’it(PFE) ollakse valmis ostma langustel:

    Given its restructuring efforts, coupled with major setbacks in its pipeline including the sudden death of its new cholesterol treatment, Torcetrapib, in December, and ongoing industry challenges, we continue to think there will be a major strategic shift at Pfizer. We remain buyers on pull backs. The stock trades at 12.9x trailing and 12.3x forward earnings. PFE's dividend yield is 4.3%.

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    Energia ettevõtete üks hiiglaslikke teenindajaid Schlumberger(SLB) lõi samuti ametlikke kasumiootusi. Abiks olid siinkohal eelkõige Põhja-Ameerikast väljapoole jäävad turud. Briefing leiab, et pikas perspektiivis tegu väga huvitava ettevõttega, kuid oma positsioone täiendama oleksid nad ikkagi nõus pigem languse pealt.

    Meanwhile the international landscape remains rich in opportunities for the oil services companies. For this reason, we continue to suggest investors add to positions in SLB on weakness given its global market position, earnings momentum, the financial strength underscored by its first quarter results and attractive shareholder value. The stock trades at 24.5x trailing and 19.4x forward earnings.

  • Mood Calm Despite Record Run

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/23/2007 9:04 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Character is the ability to carry out a good resolution long after the excitement of the moment has passed."

    -- Cavett Robert
    The most interesting aspect of the recent strength in the market is how sedate the general mood has remained as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits its highest levels ever and continues to climb. Unlike many times in the past, when chest-pounding bulls would be taunting bears and posting excited comments about the next stock that was due to double in a week, I have been seeing surprisingly little euphoria. What's the reason for this lack of excitement?

    One of the main things keeping the mood contained is probably the nature of the leadership. When the market hit new highs in the past, there was typically wild action in the smaller momentum stocks favored by Investor's Business Daily and aggressive traders. Although there have been some pockets of action in certain groups, like solar energy, the typically momentum stocks have remained fairly quiet.

    This market move had been driven primarily by mega-cap stocks that are typically favored by more-conservative investors. Aggressive traders are not loading up on the likes of Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Coca-Cola (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), and therefore they're probably not feeling so jubilant, even though they're making money.

    Another possible explanation seems to be a widespread acceptance of the fact that we are heading for some economic problems. In many areas of the country, particularly here in Florida for example, the housing market remains quite weak. All you have to do is read the local paper or drive around and observer the many "For Sale" signs. I suspect that some market players have a hard time embracing the idea that the market can keep on powering higher while their neighbors are unable to sell their homes.

    There are probably a number of other reasons the market mood has been contained, but the big question is what repercussions it has for the market. Is it possible that market players are being correctly worried and conservative? It is hard not to scoff at that suggestion since the masses are seldom given any respect by market pundits. In most cases it is automatically assumed that the mass of market participants are just plain wrong.

    However, that is really not true. The majority is actually right most of the time. Markets can't go up unless the majority is buying. It is only when emotions become extreme that mood becomes a contrary indicator. We certainly don't seem to have the sort of extreme bullishness in place to indicate that the bulls are fully invested and becoming too positive, but does that mean the market can't reverse at this point?

    The market can always surprise us, and the fact that there seem to be buyers holding back and not fully embracing the market would seem to give us some good underlying support, but if they haven't already been enticed in by a market that has been going straight up since last August I'm not sure what it will take to draw them in. Perhaps continued resiliency will eventually improve the mood, but with the DJIA now quite extended many seem ready to wait for better bargains.

    The one thing I can say for sure is that this is a very tricky environment. We certainly are technically extended in places, but we have strong upside momentum and the frothy emotions seem to be limited to mega-caps and Dow components.

    My main focus right now is watching to see whether the buying in the Dow broadens out to smaller stocks and ignites greater momentum. So far that seems questionable, and that's going to make it harder to make money with my style of investing.

    We have a slightly negative open despite more merger and acquisition news this morning. Overseas markets were mixed; oil and gold are trading down.
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    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HAS +9.2%, HSC +3.9%... M&A: MEDI +18.0% (to be bought by AZN for $15.6 bln)... Other: AVNR +14.8% (ends research collaboration with AZN, issues guidance in separate press release), PCYC +13.4% (announces FDA filing of NDA for Xcytrin Injection to treat lung cancer brain metastases), MVIS +8.4% (announced contract with transportation sector systems integrator), SCON +7.2% (confirms $4.7 mln U.S. Air Force contract), FTEK +7.7% (positive mention by Cramer).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: AMCC -15.3%, SIFY -6.9%... Other news: AGIX -17.8% (ends collaboration with AZN for AGI-1067), EPCT -7.6% (profit taking following Friday's surge), JSDA -4.5% (downgraded at Stifel), AZN -3.5% (to acquire MEDI), NYX -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman).
  • Palun lisada URRE (NasdaqGM) investeerimiskontol kaubeldavate väärtpaberite hulke.

    Äitähh!
  • mis mõtted CLX-ga enne tulemusi ?
    kas teesid peavad vett?

    hea sisenemiskoht paistmas, ootused paistavad üsna kõrged ning upside üsna limited

  • Speedy, oleme jätkuvalt Cloroxi osas negatiivselt meelestatud ning positsioon lahti. Usun, et teesid peavad paika ning hoiame üle tulemuste positsiooni.
  • Turg ei hooli nõrkadest lülidest majanduses, kuid jätkuvalt kommenteerivad arvestatavate ettevõtete juhid situatsiooni suhteliselt mustades toonides:

    "The market as a whole has been a little weakish. That has come as a result of the housing market problems and the mortgage industry meltdown. A lot of people are finding themselves in a position of reduced affordability and that has had an impact, not just on us, but across the industry."
    -- General Motors' Vice Chairman Rob Lutz (April 23, 2007)

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