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Börsipäev 15. mai

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  •  

    Wal-Mart (WMT) teatas esimese kvartali tulemused, mis vastasid üldiselt ootustele:

    WMT reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.68 per share, in-line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.68; revenues rose 8.3% year/year to $85.39 bln vs the $85.39 company preannouncement. Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.75-0.79 vs. $0.79 consensus. For the second quarter of fiscal 2008, the Company estimates the comparable store sales increase in the United States to be between 1 and 2 percent.

    Lehman upgrades General Motors (GM 30.62) to Equal-Weight from Underweight

    UBS upgrades DaimlerChrysler (DCX 84.12) to Buy from Neutral

    ThinkEquity upgrades AMD to Buy from Sell and raises their tgt to $19 from $10, based on strong Dell orders. After NVIDIA's (NVDA) public statements at its quarterly report, and data they heard in the channel, they spent the weekend checking on this data. They now believe AMD could beat expectations for the next several quarters. They think all the bad news is now in the stock, and with the convert, that AMD is truly a going concern. 

    ThinkEquity upgrades NVDA to Buy from Sell and raises their tgt to $42 from $28, as they believe AMD could beat expectations for the next several quarters, and that this change will likely affect NVDA's chipset business and drive the stock up.

     

  • Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: PLCC +33.3%, ATEA +31.9%, WINN +19.8%, ACY +11.1%, ICFI +7.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), LINE 5.3%, PCS +5.0%, CPSL +4.2%, KRY +3.5%... M&A: TW +3.3% (to be acquired by AIG for $22.00/share)... Other news: ICAD +22.1% (files 8-K with Q1 results, note co first reported these numbers on 5/8), SIGA +8.1% (announces successful results of proof of concept guinea pig trial of ST-193), CRTX +7.9% (follow-through momentum), HTLD +6.2% (declares special dividend of $2.00/share), MR +6.1% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), HTRN +5.9% (announces FDA clearance and launch of the new lithoDiamond ULTRA lithotripter), MXWL +5.8% (co and Argonne National Lab to collaborate in test of ultracapacitor/lithium-ion battery combination for hybrid vehicles), OMRI +4.3% (receives FDA approval for liquid fibrin sealant, Evicel, for use in vascular surgery), SOFO +4.1% (initiated with a Buy at Cantor), RTRSY +3.9% (Thomson and RTRSY agree on terms for merger).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: KRSL -24.0%, STEC -17.6% (also multiple downgrades), CNTF -13.8%, JASO -6.9%, PLTE -6.6%, BDCO -6.3%, IGLD -4.9%, TJX -4.1%, ACAT -3.6%, HD -2.3%... Other news: AMGN -6.9% (WSJ reports Medicare may limit anemia-drug money; also multiple downgrades), BARE -3.7% (files for a 10 mln share common stock offering), BSTE -3.2% (Beckman advises it won't increase offer to acquire BSTE beyond $90/share), GMR -3.0%, TIVO -2.8% (hearing downgraded at boutique firm).
  • How Long Can Traders Ignore the Economy?

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/15/2007 8:55 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    The headline CPI number came in a little better than expected and the core rate was right in line. The initial reaction is positive but it is going to be quite instructive to see if we can build on this news.

    The initial reaction is that this news is a positive for the market because it increases the prospects of a Fed interest rate cut in the near future. We'll see if that holds up.

    You have to wonder if the market can continue to dismiss the issue of a slowing economy forever. The Fed isn't going to cut rates simply because inflationary pressures are moderating; they are going to be cutting rates because there are problems with slowing growth.

    The market has been completely unconcerned about slowing growth for quite a while and that may well continue but you have to wonder how long the prospect of an interest rate cut more than offsets the problems of a weak economy. None
  • Eilse arutelu jätkuks Massey Energy(MEE) teemal - täna on ettevõte omapoolse tugeva kommentaariga väljas, öeldes, et nõutav kahjusumma on absurdselt suur ning reaalselt kujuneb see oluliselt väiksemaks. Kuna varem on hullemate tegude eest ettevõtet trahvitud 'Puhta Vee Seaduse' rikkumise eest kuni $34 miljoniga, siis eile teatatud nõue kuni $1.6 miljardi ulatuses tundub tõesti liiale minek.

    Caris on ettevõtet downgrade'imas - uueks soovituseks 'Above Average'
  • Nagu Sharki kommentaaristki sai lugeda, oli tarbijahinnaindeksi näit ootuspärane, kuid postitan siiski ka täpsed numbrid siia.

    NY Empire State Index 8.0 vs 9.0 consensus, prior 3.8
    CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.5% consensus, prior +0.6%
    Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +0.1%
    CPI y/y +2.6% vs +2.6% Bloomberg Consensus, prior +2.8%
    Core CPI y/y +2.3% vs +2.4% Bloomberg Consensus, prior +2.5%
  • Ma alles nüüd süvenesin tänastesse inflatsiooninumbritesse. Kui turg tõesti ootas selliseid numbreid, siis on jube küll. Y-o-y inflatsioon on küll 2,6%, aga kui viia viimase 4 kuu numbrid aasta baasile, siis on number 4,8%. Core inflation on küll samal viisil arvutades vaid 2,2%, aga see number ei ole pikas perspektiivis nii oluline. Üldjuhul vaadatakse core inflation numbrit sellepärast, et kütus ja toit on suhteliselt kõikuvad ja võivad 1 kuu numbrit palju moonutada. Tegelikult on need aga tarbijahindade osas väga olulised näitajad. Mis veel siis tarbijahindasid peaks näitama kui mitte toit ja kütus. Pikas perspektiivis on inflatsiooninumbreid mõtet vaadata ikka ainult koos nende komponentidega. S.t. USA-s on inflatsioon sisuliselt 5% all.
    Huvitav oli see, et esimesed uudistekanalite kommentaarid jätsid mulje, justkui oleks need numbrid toetanud intressimäärade langetamise ootusi. Nüüd on turg hakanud õiges suunas pöörama (s.t aktsiad ja võlakirjad on veidi tagasi andnud). Vastutuul tõenäoliselt aina tugevneb.
  • Üle pika aja turul päevasisene olukord kus suur hommikune põrge alla müüakse. Dip ostjatele paras ninanips.
    IYR on kukkunud tänasest tipust 2 punkti. Kas näeme närvilisuse algust?
  • sellekskorraks on põhi alt läinud
  • Vaatame mida QQQQ teeb, kui eilne põhi 46.19 juures vastupanuna peab, võib homme huvitavaks minna.
  • Paistab, et US-il oli õigus. Nubrid kellelegi ei meeldinud. Paistab, et negatiivsed uudised on lõpuks turule ka külge hakanud. :)
  • upser
    Ma rääkisin vastupanust mitte toetusest
  • USiga nõus. Inflatsioonile (eriti tarbijat otseselt mõjutavale inflatsioonile) on suhtelsielt vähe tähelepanu pööratud ning osaliselt kajastab situatsiooni ka CRB indeks.
  • Hetkel on situatsioon minu arvates päris keeruline, kus inflatsioon tegelikult on kõrge ning majanduskasvu prognoose on jätkuvalt kärbitud. Lisaks on housing tsükkel ajalooliseid andmeid vaadates vaid poole peal. Tarbimisharjumused võivad ilmselt paraja põntsu saada nind aprillikuised võrreldavate poodide müüginumbrid ei olnud samuti ootustele vastavad.
  • Oliveri jutu toetuseks housingust ja ajaloolisest tsüklist tahaksin meelde tuletada 9. mail tulemused teatanud kõrgema klassi majade ehitaja Toll Brothersi(TOL) kommentaare. Nimelt tellimuste tühistamise määr oli 19%, mis on 2006. aasta 9%-ist palju suurem ning ca 70% tühistamistest tulid lepingutest, mis olid allkirjastatud enam kui 30 kuud tagasi. Seega kinnisvara tsüklid on tõepoolest pikad ja lohisevad.

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