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Börsipäev 6. august

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  • Raamatus “Intelligentne Investor” (The Intelligent Investor) tutvustab Warren Buffetti õpetaja ja iidol Benjamin Graham meest nimega “Härra Turg”. Härra Turu tööks on käia ukselt uksele ning pakkuda inimestele müüa osalusi ettevõtetes, mida ta omab või siis osta osalusi ettevõtetes, mida inimesed omavad. Mõnikord on Härra Turg ukse taga väga elevil ning pakub su osaluste eest head hinda. Ehk isegi liiga head. Kuid teinekord on mees justkui musta masendusse vajunud, ei soovi sult pea midagi osta ning on valmis oma osalusi sulle müüma odavate hindadega. Selliste hindadega, mis mõne osaluse puhul on lausa allpool ettevõtte tegelikku väärtust.

    Praeguses seisus on Härra Turg küll kahtlemata depressiooni langenud, mistõttu tasub silmad lahti hoida ning otsida ettevõtteid, mis kannatavad USA majanduse, krediidituru ja hüpoteeklaenude probleemide all minimaalselt ning on pihta saanud üksnes emotsionaalsetel põhjustel.

    Aga nagu ka Graham on öelnud – individuaalse investori üks suurimaid eeliseid on see, et kui Turu poolt pakutav hind ei tundu atraktiivne, võib ta pakkumisele lihtsalt ‘ei’ öelda. Professionaalne investor seda aga teha ei saa ning peab erinevate instrumentide vahel laveerides oleme end pidevalt pea täielikult turule investeerinud. Turg ei kao kuhugi ning on USA idarannikul igal hommikul kell 9.30 uusi hindu välja pakkudes päeva alustamas.

  • Kommenteerisime põhjalikumalt Pro all ka Brush Engineered Materialsi (BW) situatsiooni. Tees on jätkuvalt jõus ning firma konverentsikõnet tasub kindlasti kuulata - juhtkond on aus ning samuti piisavalt konservatiivne, nähes aasta lõpus ja 2008. aastal korralikku nõudlust tehnoloogia järele.
  • Nädalavahetusel teatas Bear Stearns (BSC), et firma president, COO ja Boardi liige Warren Spector astus tagasi. Põhjuseks loomulikult probleemid fondidega.

  • Nafta on täna eelturul $1.3 barreli eest miinuses, kaubeldes $74.2 barreli nafta eest - kui miinus püsib, võib see täna turgudele toetust pakkuda.
  • Kiire minikalender meid ees ootavatest USA majandusaruannetest.

    Teisipäeval tund enne börsi avanemist avaldatakse 2. kvartali tootlikkus.
    Kell 14.15 USA idaranniku aja järgi tehakse teatavaks Föderaalreservi otsus intressimäärade kohta. Lisaks avaldatakse tund enne börsi sulgemist veel tarbija krediidiaruanne. Kui juba pikka aega on Fed'i otsuse tulemust intressimäärasid mitte liigutada turg ette teadnud, siis viimase aja krediidimurede valguses on tähelepanu Föderaalreservi tegudele ja kommentaaridele tagasi liikunud, mistõttu teisipäevaseks üheks tippsündmuseks see ka kujuneb.

    Kolmapäeval teatatakse hulgimüügi varud; neljapäeval töötuabiraha taotlejad ning reedel eelarve (Treasury Budget). Olulisemat infot inflatsiooni, majandusaktiivsuse (kaasa arvatud jaemüüjate edu/ebaedu) ja ehitusturu kohta jõuab turule aga järgmise nädala raportitest.
  • Danske on toonud ära mõned päris huvitavad graafikud. Esimene kannaks siis nime "The end of easy money." Üldiselt kirjeldavadki nad oma ülevaates turgu mõjutavate peamiste teguritena USA kinnisvaraturgu (mis mõjutab investorite meelekindlust ning muidugi ka tarbimist/laenuturgu) ning teiseks likviidsust/krediiditurgu.

    Central and commercial banks have – on a global basis – joined forces and are now tightening creditand liquidity standards and asset markets are reacting – as they should - with lower performance than in theyears 2003-06.

     

     

    Situatsiooni ja lähitulevikku kommenteeritakse järgnevalt: We anticipate the unrest to last at least a couple of weeks. We see the market volatility as an example of our ‘the end of cheap market’ issue which will cool-off global market performance in 2007 compared to 2005-06. Nevertheless, we anticipate the stock market to re-gain strength in the coming months backed by (a) the return of investor confidence especially in the credit market, (b) limited economic recession risk and (c) continued attractive earnings and overall market valuation.

    Vaadates USA majadeehitajate viimase aja käitumist, siis see tundub küll pigem indikeerivat negatiivsema stsenaariumi käiku minekut aasta lõpus.

     

  • Bloomberg.com kirjutab väga huvitava artikli sellest, kuidas investeerimispangad on aasta esimesel poolele tänu võimendatud ülevõttude (LBO-de) korraldamisele hunniku raha taskusse pistnud, kuid aasta teine pool võib aga selles osas märgatavalt tagasihoidlikumaks osutuda. See on huvitav teema, kuna praegu peamiselt pööratakse tähelepanu nende subslime probleemidele, kuid jäetakse mainimata, et nende ettevõtete usaldusväärsus saab väga palju kannatada ning senised kasvugeneraatorid võivad ära kukkuda. Täna kiidetakse mitmeid pangandussektori ettevõtteid erinevate analüüsimajade poolt (CIBC karjub juba mitmendat korda, kui odavad on broker/dealerid), kuid nende osas tasub siiski ettevaatlik olla.

    artikkel ise siin  

  • First Albany on kommenteerimas Brush Engineered Materialsi (BW). Analüüsimaja arvates on negatiivsed uudised seljataga ning aktsiahinda sisse arvestatud, samal ajal oodatakse tugevat aasta teist poolt. Analüüsimaja arvates on see võimalus aktsia ostmiseks. Sarnast arvamust omab ka Jefferies.

    Firm believes that the growing adoption of perpendicular media and typical seasonality in the co's consumer-driven products will drive a strong second half for Brush. Firm would be buyers of the stock. With the 2Q reporting out of the way, they believe most of the near-term negative news is already priced into the stock. 

  • Friedman Billings usub, et 11. detsembri FOMC koosolekul kärbib Fed funds rate'i 25 baasipunkti võrra 5.00% tasemele ning jaanuarikuisel 2008. aasta FOMC koosolekul järgnevad 25 baasipunkti. Samal ajal tõmmatakse alla reaase GDP kasvuprognoosi 2.4% tasemelt +1.9% tasemele 2007. aasta teisel poolel ning 2008. aastal 3% tasemelt 2.5% tasemele.

    Firm is trimming their forecast for the pace of real personal consumption expenditure growth from +2.3% to +1.5% for the second half of 2007 and from +2.8% to +2.5% for the first half of 2008.

  • Üpriski huvitav hinnasihi muudatus Friedman Billingsi poolt. Nimelt langetab analüüsimaja peale viimaste päevade arenguid NFI hinnasihi $4.5 tasemelt $0-le.

  • Sarnase hinnasihi muutuse andis Billings American Home Mortgage-le (AHM) eelmisel neljapäeval, täna files chapter 11 pankrotikaitse ning aktsia hind on kukkunud 50 sendile. NFI eelturul -16% ehk $5.38.
  • Huvitav, miks AHM aktsia hind jätkuvalt 50 senti on, ma küll kardan, et AHM aktsionärid ei saa mitte midagi tagasi.
  • Nulli arvatavasti ta ei kuku, kuna mingi likvideerimisväärtus võib sellel kõigel ikka olla. Chapteri puhul antakse natuke ilmselt armu, kuid aktsionärid on tagareas tavaliselt jah. Praegune 50-sendiline hind peaks kajastuma ca $27 miljonilises turuväärtuses.
  • The Market Needs Time to Heal Itself
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/6/2007 8:04 AM EDT


    The most dangerous person is the fearful; he is the most to be feared.
    -- Lidwig Borne

    The biggest and most dangerous fear of market participants is fear of the unknown. When what we fear is vague, unmeasurable and unquantified, we feel hopeless and tend to expect the worst. We simply want to run away and feel safe, and we will do so even if it comes at great cost.

    The situation the market is in right now is particularly dangerous because the depth of the credit problems we are suddenly facing is so vague. We just don't know how widespread and how far-reaching the negative fallout will ultimately be. For the last few months, many were trying to convince us that the subprime issues were contained, but that is now obviously incorrect. We now have to grapple with how this will affect real estate, private equity, liquidity and more esoteric issues like the yen carry trade.

    The stock market is usually extremely effective at discounting future events. If news, good or bad, is widely expected to occur, the market wastes no time in pricing in the impact. The more certain the future news appears to be, the more effectively the market deals with it.

    Unfortunately that is not the case at present, which is why the market is likely to face some major difficulties as we wait to gain some clarity. One thing that may help the market gain a little feeling of clarity is the FOMC interest rate decision on Tuesday afternoon. Although the Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates, it will probably address the recent credit issues and assure us that it is cognizant of the problems.

    Emotional calls for the Fed to rush to bail out the market are ill-considered. Cutting rates and enabling lax lending standards is what caused the current problems. They may be temporarily abated by doing the same thing once again, but the free-enterprise system should be giving time to work. These issues will all be resolved, albeit with some pain, but there is no way to avoid suffering if we are to really fix the problems.

    At this point, investors simply need to be patient and defensive. The worst thing you can do is to anticipate a sudden and complete recovery. We are grappling with some big problems, and it will take some time for the market to gain clarity and price them in. We are very likely to see some relief rallies, but keep it firmly in mind that the character of the market has changed and that it will take some time to repair the damage that has been done.

    When the market has taken a hit like we have recently, it is extremely hard to just shrug it off and go back to where we were. There are people in pain who want to escape and they will do so on strength. Those who were so eager to buy dips have now seen that it doesn't always work, and they will have second thoughts about doing so. The bears who couldn't buy a break for nearly a year are now invigorated and will be looking to press harder than they have in the past.

    Things have changed, but the bad news is that we still have no idea to what degree they have changed. Proceed with caution.

    We have a bit of a bounce brewing in the early going. There isn't much news, but a few buyers seem to be anxious to bottom-fish to start the week. Overseas markets were mostly negative overnight, although some of the selling pressure has subsided in Europe. Oil is down sharply and gold is steady.
    ------------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ELOS +8.1%, VGR +3.5%, UNH +3.1%... Other news: WFII +23.2% (awarded contract valued at approximately $46 mln), GGBM +19.3% (announces further penetration into Middle East following milestone government order), LEND +17.0% (still checking for anything new on LEND - Cramer was positive on the stock on Friday before the close), IDEV +3.7% (announces FDA approval of Sanctura XR), AMTD +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), ORCL +0.7% (CNBC reports that ORCL & HPQ added to favorites at Goldman).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: FTEK -18.4%, MTLK -6.2%, NYNY -4.1%... Other news: AHM -26.1% (Bloomberg report AHM files for bankruptcy), NFI -17.3% (Friday after the close Reuters reported NFI suspended approval and funding activity on wholesale loans not locked in; this morning FBR cut their price tgt to $0 saying high likelihood NFI will be unable to continue operations), ZOLT -8.4% (announces a 4 mln share common stock offing), LUM -5.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan).
  • Euroopa turud pigem punases, sama rada ka Aasia turud (harjumuspärase erandiga Hiina osas):

    Saksamaa DAX +0.22%

    Prantsusmaa CAC -0.77%

    Inglismaa FTSE -0.72%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.17%

    Venemaa RTS -1.09%

    Poola WIG -1.40%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.39%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.67%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.49%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.21%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.38%

    Thai Set -2.96%

    India Sensex -1.55%

  • Likviidsuse teemal (IB platvormi kasutajatele):

    IMPORTANT MARGIN NOTICE

    Effective Monday 6 August, 2007, and until further notice, there will be a
    significant change in the intraday margins for most stock and index futures
    and futures options. Specifically, the intraday margin will be set to cover
    a price move of 4% in the instrument, but will not exceed the regular
    maintenance margin. By example, a 4% move in the ES futures would require
    intraday margin of 4% * 1450 price * 50 multiplier = 2900 USD. The regular
    intraday margin is 1400 USD and the regular overnight maintenance margin is
    2800 USD so for ES the intraday margin would be the same as the overnight.
    PLEASE NOTE THAT THE ONLY MARGINS AFFECTED BY THIS POLICY CHANGE ARE
    INTRADAY (REDUCED) MARGINS ON EQUITY-LINKED FUTURES AND FUTURES OPTIONS.

    Please note that many of the statutory margin requirements for many US index
    futures and options imply a very small intraday margin requirement (in the
    case of ES, less than 2%). In light of the recent volatility in the markets,
    we feel it is prudent to apply margins that are consistent with this
    volatility.
  • Tasub vanad head turu liidrid radaril hoida. Kui Apple, Google jt suudavad koos broker/dealeritega ülespoole liikuda, on turul lootust.
  • Intressimäärade langetamise tõenäosused on turul lausa päevadega suurenenud. Hetkel oodatakse juba 100%lise tõenäosusega, et 0.25%line langetamine leiab aset juba oktoobris:

    Rate-Cut Odds
    FOMC meetingTodayFridayWeek ago
    August 7th12%10%5%
    September 18th56%46%28%
    October 31st100% for one; 4% for two86% for one48%
    End of year100% for one; 60% for two100% for one; 38% for two92% for one
  • Mis oleks need nö tugevad, kuid hetkel emotsioonide ajel allamüüdud ettevõtted?
  • blankkonsult, fundamentaalselt tugevaid ettevõtteid ole teisigi, aga kas või Pro valikutest rääkides, siis Gmarketit(GMKT) ostaksime kindlasti osadena languse pealt juurde ning pikaajalisse portfelli oleme lisanud tervishoiu sektorist Global Healthcare Sectori (IXJ). Pikema horisondiga väärtusinvesteeringut ja riski taluvale investorile võiks veel sobida Motorola (MOT) jne.

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