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Börsipäev 4. jaanuar - tööjõuraport

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • 2008. aasta esimene kauplemisnädal hakkabki tasapisi läbi saama ning pühade järgselt on mahud turgudel kiiresti kasvanud. Negatiivsed emotsioonid on selgelt ülekaalus, kuid tekkimas on lühiajaline ülemüüdus. Täna tund aega enne USA trugude avanemist teatakse detsembrikuu tööjõuraporti numbrid - ootused hetkel mittepõllumajanduslike töökohtade osas on +70 000. Ausalt öeldes ma ei oskagi väga öelda, mis see parim number oleks - pärast sellist kiiret kukkumist on nõrga raporti peale 'intresse kärbitakse' hõiskajad väljas ning tugeva raporti peale 'majanduslangust ei tule' tüübid kohal. Win-win? Aga üldiselt väga nõrka raportit turg ikkagi näha ei taha...
  • Töötuse puhul oodatakse järjekindlat suurenemist, augusti 4.6% ja järgmise kolme kuu 4.7% pealt prognoositakse suurenemist 4.8%-le. Samuti oodatakse palkade kasvu (kuu baasil 0.3%) ning tööjõuturu vaikelust hoolimata suuri mõranemise märke veel ei nähta.

    Nagu Joel ka ütles, meeldiksid turule konsensuse oodatud numbrid, sest ühel juhul oleks majanduse olukord oodatust halvem ning teisel juhul ei kärbitaks intressimäärasid loodetud ulatuses.
  • Eile teatavaks tehtud USA automüük näitas detsembris 3%-list kukkumist aastasel baasil. Pihta said kõik suuremad tootjad, müüginumbrid olid General Motorsil 4.4%, Fordil 8.9% ja Toyotal 1.7% madalamad. Ainukesena suutis langevaid müügimahte vältida Chrysler, mille suured aastalõpu allahindlused andsid oma panuse 0.5% suurusesse mahtude tõusu. Illustreeriv tabel WSJ-st:

    Dec auto sales

    Kuigi GM ootab 2008. aastaks müügimahtude paigal püsimist, siis analüütikud selles nii veendunud ei ole. Raskusi prognoositakse tervele tööstusele ning kannatavad ka USAs turuosa võitnud välismaised tootjad.

  • Järjest rohkem on turul kuulda appikarjeid Föderaalreservi poole...et intresse alandataks ja et ehk oleks vaja teha seda ebareeglipäraselt enne planeeritud uut istungit jaanuari viimastel päevadel. Kui need hirmud veelgi hoogu juurde saavad, siis see hakkab langusele panustajaid pidevalt varvastel hoidma. Ebareeglipärane langetamine tähendaks ühel hetkel suurt ülespoole avanemist ja lühikeste pigistamist - lühikeseksmüüja õudusunenägu...
  • Ega selline asi enam imastama ei paneks. 17 august 2007 siiani hästi meeles.
    Ben, vana karude tapja, võib seda iga ilmaga teha. Paljud sõimavad teda akadeemikuks, kes börsi olemusest midagi ei taipa. Mida arvate teie sellest uuest helikoperijuhist?
  • Nonfarm Payrolls 18K vs 70K consensus, prior revised to 115K from 94K
    Dec. Change in Manufacturing Payrolls @ -31 vs. -15K consensus
    Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs 4.8% consensus
    Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% vs +0.3% consensus
  • Turud lükkusid protsendi võrra alla selle statistika peale... Numbrid on küll nõrgad, aga tegu pole veel katastroofiga. Pealegi ma arvan, et lühikeste hirmud Fedi võimaliku sekkumise osas on väga kiiresti tõusmas...
  • Miks ma niimoodi arvan?

    Tuletan meelde paar päeva tagasi avaldatud Föderaalreservi protokollist järgmist lauset:

    "Fed is 'Exceptionally Alert' To Change Rates If Needed."

  • Saksamaa DAX -0.79%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.04%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.28%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.92%

    Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)

    Poola WIG -0.72%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -4.03%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.35%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.79%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.40%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.74%

    Tai Set -1.71%

    India Sensex +1.68%

  • Due For a Bounce, But Then What?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/4/2008 8:29 AM EST


    I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is the moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle -- victorious.
    -- Vince Lombardi

    As 2008 begins to unfold, it has been a very difficult battle -- poor economic news and worries about a possible recession have sapped positive sentiment. Although seasonality is supportive of the upside and the market is oversold enough to support a bounce, we have been unable to gain any upside traction in recent days. Every time we seem to be gaining a little momentum, the selling picks up and pushes us back down.

    The problem is that there just isn't much optimism out there right now. There is talk that the market is "cheap" -- which I question -- but positive news and catalysts are certainly lacking. We still have plenty of unknowns in the housing and debt markets, and concerns about inflation are growing, especially with oil hitting $100 a barrel.

    In this sort of environment, the bulls will typically point to widespread negativity as support for the idea that the sellers are washed out and we are ready for a bounce. No one really seems to believe that negativity is so extreme that it can support a lasting bounce. There is talk that we are due for some upside, but even the bulls seem to have little faith that a bounce will last. Few seem to believe that we can move back toward highs and get a lasting uptrend going again.

    The market is lacking confidence in the Fed. More rate cuts are expected, but that hasn't been enough to comfort buyers. The worry about the inability of the Fed to help matters is becoming even worse as the dollar continues to weaken and inflationary signs grow.

    The Fed's primary tool is providing liquidity through rate cuts, but that has the downside of boosting inflation and hurting the dollar. That leaves little flexibility for Ben Bernanke and his crew.

    The other big negative out there is that the charts of the major indices are downright ugly. None of the major indices has yet to break below the lows we hit in November, but we are getting close and the situation looks precarious. I suspect we'll bounce soon but after that I'm very concerned that we are going to crack that support

    All the major indices also have the makings of "head-and-shoulders" tops, and a break below the November lows will complete the pattern. It is very hard to be longer-term bullish with this poor overall technical health in the major indices.

    The key to making money right now is to stay short term and play bounces but don't expect them to last. There are pockets of action and we are due for some short-term relief, but it is going to be tough going in the intermediate term unless we get some very surprising turns in the economic news.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: AZZ +9.2%, SONC +3.1%, CACB +2.6% (pre-announced Q4 provision for credit losses and lowers guidance), CACB +2.6%, ANGO +2.5%, ARTC +2.0% (reaffirms guidance; acquires reimbursement service provider; also upgraded to Outperform at William Blair), LION +2.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at SunTrust), TXI +1.1%, LDG +1.1%... M&A news: NPTE 43.7% (to be acquired by QBE for $16/share)... Other news: OSIR +35.2% (awarded Department of Defense contract for Prochymal fully valued at $224.7 mln), ANDS +14.9% (announces positive results for ANA598 in animal model of chronic hepatitis C virus infection), NM +6.1% (South American logistics business), JSDA +5.7% (names Joth Ricci as Chief Operating Officer), KPN +5.0% (market talk of bid interest from Telefonica TEF - Reuters; KPN spokesman says not in merger talks with Telefonica - Bloomberg), JTX +3.6% (issues statement regarding Internal Revenue Code 7216; also upgraded to Hold at Soleil), SNP +3.4% (denies Xinhua report of $9.6 bln 07 profit - Reuters), UPL +2.4% (Cramer calls UPL the perfect stock to play the natural gas market; also initiated with Neutral and $73 tgt at SunTrust), SPWR +2.4% (to build 8 Megawatt Solar power plant in Spain), BHP +2.0% (still checking), CRDN +1.8% (receives new ID/IQ body armor order; 5-yr order estimated at a max value in excess of $400 mln, initial $4.9 mln delivery release), IIVI +1.4% (announces change in independent registered public accounting co), HCBK +1.3% (Cramer names CEO banker of the year and highlights co on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: CRNT +6.9% (upgraded to Buy at Morgan Joseph), PTR +4.3% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), HMY +3.6% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS)

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance/same store sales: MCRL -10.5%, BBBY -7.7% (also tgt cut to $25 from $43 at Credit Suisse), LNDC -7.3%, GPN -4.9%, MLNM -3.6%, ACAT -1.3%... Select tech stocks showing weakness with Nasdaq continuing to underperform: NOK -2.2%, ERIC -2.1%, CSCO -2.0%, RIMM -1.9%, AAPL -1.6%, STM -1.6%, MOT -1.6% (multiple cautious broker notes out this morning), ALU -1.2%, IBM -1.0%... Other news: CBLI -37.5% (not selected for Defense contract award), TLB -6.4% (announces plans to close kids and mens concepts, also announce that its quarter-to-date sales for both its Talbots and J. Jill brands are trending below its expectations), RF -5.5% (increases 4Q07 loan loss provision), DAI -4.2% (reported yesterday U.S. sales fell 2.9%), UNF -3.8% (stock seeing continued pressure after giving up portion of post-earnings gains yesterday afternoon), SEPR -1.2% (Timothy Barberich to resign as Executive Chairman and will continue to serve as Chairman of the Board), HRB -1.1% (comments on proposed RAL restrictions)... Analyst downgrades: MXB -2.6% (initiated with a Sell at Tier-One firm)
  • Tony Crescenzi kirjutab Realmoney all murettekitavalt USA majandusest. Huvitav lugemine, panen siia:

    U.S. Economy is Contracting

    1/4/2008 9:17 AM EST

    All indications are that the U.S. economy is contracting. Today's unemployment report strongly reinforces this idea, showing a contraction in private payrolls alongside an increase in the unemployment rate of a magnitude that since World War II has been seen only in periods of economic recession.

    Risk assets are, hence, likely to remain under significant downward pressure, and if history is any guide, U.S. equities could fall as much as 20% from their peak, which would translate into a decline of nearly 2000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The situation is not likely to change until the economy shows signs of expanding again. 

  • Lisasin LHV Pro alla USA turgude viimase aja sündmuste kokkuvõtte ning USA analüüsimeeskonna nägemuse edasise osas. Kuna tegu on põhimõtteliselt investeerimiskomitee materjalidega, siis peaks see investeerimishuvilistele olema igati asine materjal.
  • Kristjan, kas Sa kajastad siin isiklikke või juhitud portfellide tehinguid? Kodulehe kohaselt oled 11-kuuga suutnud ligi 9 protsenti miinust teha klientide aktsiaportfellile.
  • üsna keeruline call, aga sul võib muidugi õigus olla.
  • 12-mo tulemus oli minu klientidel -0,4% kuni +3,midagi%. Nii et ei midagi hõisata. Aga ilma selle va TWM-ta oleks number ikka jupp maad nadim olnud.
  • Siit võiks ju blow-off bottom tulla, eriti kui karud ei peaks FEDi hirmus julgema positsioone üle nädalavahetuse hoida.
  • pigem mina kardan seda, et kohe aasta alguses näidatav indeksi paras miinus pakub liiga ahvatlevat võimalust neile, kes ennast S&P-ga võrdlevad ja kogemata rahas/lühikesed on olnud, pikaks minna ja kogu aasta S&P-s istuda ja indeksit lüüa.
  • Joel, Oliver
    BW saab täna jälle jubedalt uudisteta tappa ning tulemusi näevad jätkuvalt varasemas valguses nagu ka Pro investeerimisteesis loodeti Hind alla 35 USD. Kuidas suhtute?
  • mersu36,

    jätame BW hetkel kõrvale. Liigne sõltuvus commodity hinnast (ruteeniumi graafik näeb ka suht nutune välja) on see, mis lisab liiga palju volatiilsust. Aga pakub ohtralt kauplemisvõimalusi kindlasti. Investeerimise mõistes on ka väga paljude teiste (konservatiivsemate, tugevate rahavoogude ja hea dividenditootlusega) aktsiate hinnad alla tulnud, mis praeguses keskkonnas (ja kogu 2008. aasta jooksul) oleksid mõistlikumad objektid...
  • Tänase päeva võib vist mällu jätta. Lisandunud on hulganisti arvamusi, et majanduslangus on "alanud". Andmed seda veel kinnnitada ei saa, sest need avaldatakse viitega. Tõenäoliselt näevad enamus analüüsimaju vaeva oma prognooside muutmisega ning lähiajal võidakse lagedale tulla nii mõnegi uue üllitisega.
  • Ehk siis mõned näited PRO alla?
  • Jah, kursis hoiame kindlasti, kuid eeldatavasti foorumite kaudu.
  • Kuubikud lõpetasid -4.7% miinuses, Dow ja SPY natuke üle 2% madalamal. Ainukese sektorina suutis mingitki tugevust näidata Utilities. Kahtlemata huvitav algus aastale.
  • QID tõusis täna üle 9%, minu silmad pole veel sellist asja näinud.
    Jaanuari lõpul pidi Marsi tabama meteoriit, elame huvitaval ajal....
  • Kui kristjanil QID veel alles, siis on aasta vist hästi alanud!?
  • Üks huvitav artikkel. Oil hittis 100 levelit küll sel päeval, kui CNBC seda suurelt reklaamis (kuulutades pool tundi, et mitte), kuid selle taga oli üks tehing ja üks mees.

    * A lone trader out to win a little fame made the purchase that took oil prices to the historic 100 dollars a barrel level this week but he lost 600 dollars on the deal, analysts said.

    "It was just for the form; he wanted to be the first in the world to buy oil at 100 dollars," said Antoine Heff, an analyst at NewEdge.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080104/ts_alt_afp/commoditiesoilpriceoffbeat
  • (kuulutades pool tundi hiljem, et ikka ei hittinud)
  • Reedene börsipäev hämmastas kõige rohkem selle poolest, et enim langes tehnoloogiasektor (nasdaq -3,77%, QQQQ -4,39%), mida on seni peetud üheks suhteliselt tugevamaks valdkonnaks.
  • Sellepeale võiks öelda vanasõnaga, et igal oinal on oma mihklipäev.

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