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Börsipäev 9. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Microsoftilt on kardetud Apple'i iPhone'iga konkureeriva toote väljastamist, kuid Bill Gates on need jutud ümber lükkamas, lubades smart phone segmendis keskenduda üksnes Windows Mobile programmi tarkvarale. Samuti rääkis Gates partnerluslepingutest erinevate telefonide tootjatega alates Samsungist ja lõpetades Motorolaga (MOT), uskudes, et niimoodi võidab Microsoft rohkem, kui enda telefoni hakataks välja arendama.

    Täna, 9. jaanuaril on majandusandmete osas vaikne päev ning pullid on oma viimase kahe nädala veriseid haavu lakkumas. Abi oodatakse nii Fedilt kui ka fiskaalpoliitilisi vahendeid valitsuselt tarbijate toetamiseks. Eilne pea 30%line langus Countrywide (CFC) aktsiates näitas, et hoolimata ettevõtte-poolsetest kommentaaridest, et firma pankrotti veel minemas ei ole, seda sõnumit lihtsalt ei usuta enam.

    Viimase kaheksa kauplemispäevaga on Nasdaq kukkunud üle 10.5% ja S&P500 pisut üle 7.2%.
  • Goldman Sachs on täna taas väljas oma USA majanduslanguse teesiga - kui varem on räägitud 3%listest intressimääradest suve keskpaigaks, siis täna kuuleme 2.5%listest määradest 3. kvartaliks. Nende SKP kasvuprognoos 2008. aastaks on nadi 0.7%. 2008. aasta teise ja kolmanda kvartali aasta baasile viiduna SKP'd nähakse -1% ringis. Töötust ennustatakse 2009. aastaks tänaselt 5% pealt kasvavat 6.5% peale.
  • Üks väike tsitaat Doug Kassilt: "It's the hardest stock market to navigate ever."
  • Panen siia ühe graafiku, mis näitab, miks töötuse määr nii oluline on. Nimelt 100%-l juhtudest on USA langenud alati majanduslangusesse, kui töötuse määr tõuseb oma viiamsest põhjast enam kui 0.5 protsendipunkti... see on ka faktor, mis mängis suurt rolli Goldman Sachsi majanduslanguse teesi väljakujunemisel.

  • Don't 'Wait It Out'
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/9/2008 7:54 AM EST


    We're getting hurt, but I'm a long-term investor.
    -- Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud
    Major shareholder of Citigroup (C)

    One thing that has always greatly frustrated me about Wall Street is that there seems to be no appreciation of the idea that a multi-billionaire might approach the market differently than an average investor with a small portfolio. We hear how big investors like the prince or Warren Buffett aren't worried because they are holding for the long term. If they actually had a choice in how they approached the market that might be important, but they have to stick with big positions through thick and thin.

    I don't really care how a Warren Buffett manages hundreds of billions of dollars. It has no relevance to me, but I would love to know what he would do if he had only $100,000. I bet he wouldn't simply park it in a big-cap stock for the long term.

    In many cases, long-term investing is not the preferred approach to the market, but it's the only possible approach for a big investor.

    I bring this up today because it is the argument that is so often used to push investors to sit idly by in a rotten market. "I'm a long-term investor, so I'm just going to sit and wait this out" is one of the most dangerous things an investor can do if he or she wants to produce superior gains.

    The way to excel is to get out of the way when the market goes into a downtrend. If you can avoid even part of a bear market, you will be far ahead of the long-term investor who sits idly.

    The argument against such an approach is that you can't time the market. But you don't need to time the market. You simply need to adhere to some generally accepted rules of portfolio management. When losses start to grow, draw a line in the sand and cut them at some point. You can always buy back your favorite stocks at some point, but in a poor market there is no knowing how low they can go.

    Think of selling not as an irrevocable decision but as a form of insurance that can be removed by rebuying at some point. Selling is cheap and easy and can have some major psychological benefits if you use it wisely.

    I bring this topic up today because this market has fallen into a downtrend. We are likely going to see a decent bounce fairly soon, but the market is broken and the likelihood is that more pain lies ahead. If you play defense now and don't just sit passively, you can end up far ahead of the pack when things start to act better. That means some additional work, but effort is usually rewarded.

    We have another positive open on the way, but positive opens have not worked out well recently. We have consistently opened strong and closed weak, which is bear-market action. We'd be better off with a poor open that washed out hopeful bounce-buyers, but it isn't happening this morning.

    I continue to think the Fed will make a move before its next scheduled meeting at the end of the month. Unfortunately, there is no way to time such a thing, and loading up in anticipation is a bet rather than prudent speculation. But with the market so grossly oversold and the risk of a Fed move out there pressing shorts is very dangerous.

    Overseas markets were mixed, with a strong intraday reversal in Asia and Europe down. Gold continues to rally and oil is bouncing back a bit.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: APOL +7.6%, QLGC +6.5%, CKR +5.8% (also announces $50 mln increase to stock repurchase program), EZEM +4.8%, OKE +4.7%, MBWM +4.1%, DD +3.5%, PPDI +3.5% (also tgt raised to $55 at FBR), MOS +3.3% (also Hearing upgraded to buy at tier 1 firm), WFSL +3.1%, ENTG +2.5% (Q4 trends better than expected), CPTS +2.0%, EMMS +2.0%, ARTG +2.0%, F +1.6% (sales in China rise 30% in 2007), VFC +1.5%... Other news: MBI +10.9% (announces $1 bln surplus notes offering; announces reduction in its quarterly dividend; also Fitch says it would affirm MBIA rating if $1 bln offering successful - DJ), DNDN +7.4% (still checking), ETFC +6.7% (reports initial progress of turnaround plan; plans to exit institutional business), CHA +6.3% (still checking), CFC +6.0% (reports December 2007 operational results), CEO +6.0% (still checking), XING +5.4% (still checking), MGM +5.0% (MGM Mirage and Dubai World confirm intention to commence a Dutch Auction Tender Offer), COT +3.4% (reports debt covenant amendment for Q4 2007 and term sheet for new ABL facility), COGT +3.1% (Jefferies finds valuation attractive and recommends investors start accumulating), CWST +3.1% (Paul Larkin joins company as President and COO), TNL +2.9% (to acquire Sonion for $385 mln; expects it to be accretive in subsequent year by approx $0.25/share), NANX +2.7% (announces new patent), TSFG +2.7% (holder McMullen sends letter to South Financial Group), MCRS +2.6% (announces two-for-one stock split), DLTR +2.6% (still checking), LUV +2.2% (up in sympathy with multiple airline upgrades), STJ +2.0% (tgt increased to $61 from $48 at FBR). Analyst upgrades: DAL +6.2% (upgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), UAUA +4.6% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), LDK +4.1% (upgraded to Sector Underperform at CIBC), EXFO +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at Roth Capital), FLWS +3.8% (hearing coverage transferred with a Neutral from Sell at tier 1 firm), AMR +3.5% (upgraded to Sell at UBS), WG +3.0% (initiated with Buy at UBS), BUCY +3.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), VMW +2.7% (initiated with Buy at Lazard), VMW +2.7% (initiated with Buy at Lazard), BTU +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Calyon), POT +2.2% (hearing added to Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm), SHPGY +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), CAL +2.0% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: PRXI -31.9%, SPEC -15.1% IONA -4.8% MERX -4.3% EXFO -4.3% XRTX -2.5% SVVS -2.2% MTRX -2.0%... Select shippers showing weakness: FRO -3.6%, DRYS -2.8%, EXM -1.9%, EGLE -1.7%... Other news: INSP -44.1% (ex-dividend; also target lowered to $14 at Needham as result of dividend), SI -4.1% (falls overseas on speculation company will cut profit outlook - Bloomberg.com), BHS -3.5% (reports net new home orders and preliminary operating items for Q4), BP -3.2% (speculation analysts are cutting estimates), AKH -3.2% (trades lower in foreign markets, hurt by oil and performance of Eurostar Group)... Analyst downgrades: PZE -3.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup; also downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns), MHGC -3.7% (downgraded to Outperform at JMP), GRMN -3.6% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), TSO -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns), AAI -1.5% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), GG -1.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC).
  • Kui Venemaa välja arvata, olid Euroopas toonid üsna punanesed, Aasias seevastu suudeti tugevust näidata.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.80%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.06%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.72%

    Hispaania IBEX -1.16%

    Venemaa MICEX 0%

    Poola WIG -3.33%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.49%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.86%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.91%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.11%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.48%

    Tai Set +1.08%

    India Sensex -0.02%

  • Aasja metalliralli BW-d ei suutnudki üles vedada?
  • Fed's Poole says fed is watching both recession risk and inflation risk
    Poole says too early to tell if housing problems will push economy into recession
    Poole-US economic fundamentals remain strong and 2008 looks to be a year of rising growth
    Poole says recession risk stems from financial market turmoil spreading housing woes
    Fed Poole says considerable uncertainty surround outlook
    Poole says inflation expectations quite solidly entrenched
    Fed Poole says low inflation expectations give fed 'breathing room'
  • Kuna täna hommikul liikus turul agressiivselt ringi jutte sellest, et Föderaalreserv võib olla lähipäevil või isegi tänase kauplemispäeva keskel intresse alandamas, siis panen siia lihtsalt natukene huvitavat infot.

    Ajalooliselt on olnud niimoodi, et kui üleüldse on päeva keskel intressimäärasid liigutatud, siis on tehtud seda pisut pärast USA lõunatundi ehk lootusrikkad kauplejad võivad turul seda oodata Eesti aja järgi kell 20.00 - 20.30 ning teate puudumisel oma lootuse taaskord koos turuga maha müüa.

    See, kas ja kuna Fed langetab on ülimalt riskantne ja tegelikult võimatu ette öelda, kuid tahtsin 7 aasta taguse stsenaariumi siia üles riputada lihtsalt. CFC täna taas üle 10% miinuses ning finantsturgudel puudub absoluutselt igasugune usaldus majanduse, majandusstabiilsuse, ettevõtete ellujäämisvõimesse ja varsti kaob ilmselt ka investorite eneseusk iseendasse.
  • üldiselt selline moraali kaotus iseloomulik pigem põhjadele, aga just in case long IWM rahast väljas putid. Närvid...
  • 7 aastase taguse olukorraga on praegu veel pullide kasuks see veel,et ei ole tulnud kasumihoiatusi kus öeldakse ,et kasum langeb 50%, siis ju hakkas minu mälu põhjal suur langus mobiilitootjatest ,ericsson,elcoteg jne.
  • 52 nädala uute põhjade ja tippude suhe on täna 24:1....
  • Joel, kas seekord on tulemuste tabelit ka kavas teha?
  • jaan71,

    Plaan on täiesti olemas tõepoolest - usun, et järjepidevalt tehes annab see hea ülevaate ettevõtete reaalsetest kasumitest ja analüütikute ootustest. Aga kuna ettevõtted on 4. kvartali tulemusi teatamas koos aastalõpu omadega, siis läheb neil nende teatamisega tavapäraseest pisut enam aega, mis tähendab, et tulemuste tabeliteni veel aega on.

    Aga nagu ikka, kui on mingeid ettevõtteid, mida tabelitesse kaasata ja neid seal seni olnud pole, andke aga teada ja püüan meeles pidada.
  • mis juhtus? miks kyik tyuseb nii tugevalt?
  • Volatiilsus-volatiilsus renessanss. Kui päev ära ei vaju, võivad lõpuks ka pullid tagasi reele hüpata.

    Aga Bear Sterns ütleb hästi:

    Bear Stearns CEO Schwartz in CNBC interview says he thinks BSC will do better in 2008 than 2007 (71.62 +0.45)

    Says some of the best opportunities in the next five years will be created out of this credit crisis.
  • Täna pärast turgu on esimese suure raporteerijana 4. kvartali tulemused lauale panemas Alcoa(AA). Kasumi osas on ootus $0.33 ning müügitulu $6.92 miljardit.
  • Alcoa näis tulemusi beatima. Tänaõhtuse ralli ja AA tulemuste najalt võiks homme põrget oodata küll.
  • AAPL pani kah ajama
    180 juba ületatud.!!
  • Alcoa (AA) on tulemusi löömas jah - kasumit aktsia kohta $0.36 ning müügitulu $7.39 miljardit. Numbrid on ilusad.
  • kaevandaja-rafineerija-töötleja tulemused ei ütle just liiga palju USA olukorra kohta, kui see midagi üldse ütleb, siis pigem maailma tervikuna või Hiina kohta. Rallit puhtalt selle tulemuse pealt oodata ei ole küll mõtet. See ei tähenda muidugi, et rallit tingimata ei toimu:)
  • Tere,

    üks mõte seoses tulemuste hooaja tabeliga: kuna päris oluline osa majandustuelmustest on tulevikuprognoosid, siis kas on mõeldav kuidagi see info ka tabelisse integreerida (nt kaks lisatulpa: oodatav kasum FY08 vs tegelik prognoos). Arusaadav, et seda tabelit ei saa liiga lohisevaks muuta ja tegelikult saab iga asjasthuvitatu selle info niisama ka kätte, aga selline asi annaks lihtsalt hea ülevaade ühest kohast. Edu.
  • trent21, mõte on hea iseenesest. Aga teostus ilmselt keeruline. Alustades kas või sellest, et osa ettevõtteid ei anna terve aasta kasumiprognoose... või siis näiteks antakse nii Q1 08 kui ka F08 ning üks neist võib olla upside ja teine downside guidance'iga... Ei julge selleks korraks veel uuendusi lubada, aga üritan selle teostuse võimalikkuse/pakendamise üle natuke mõelda.
  • aga piisaks lahtrisse + ja - märgist, ehk siis, kas negatiivne nägemus või positiivne....

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