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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 14. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Bloombergis on lugu, kuidas Goldman Sachs prognoosib, et aasta lõpuks langeb 15 miljoni inimese kodu väärtus alla võetud laenusumma, mis tähendab järjekordsete majade haamri alla minekut. Tegemist on oluliselt suurema numbriga, kui seni pakutud. Stsenaarium on tõenäoline, sest Fannie Mae ennustab hindade kukkumist selle aasta jooksul 4.5% ning kolmandikul laenajatel on lähiaastatel intressid oluliselt tõusmas (adjustable-rate mortgages). Kahe aasta eest laenu võtnutest on tervelt 39%-l kukkunud tagatise väärtus allapoole laenusummat. 
  • Eile tulemused avaldanud Baidu (BIDU) suutis järjekordselt üllatada, kasumit aktsia kohta teeniti $0.87 (+79%) vs analüütikute oodatud $0.71. Neljas kvartal oli tugev, eriti arvestades mõned päevad enne tulemusi levinud kuulujutte, et üllatusmoment võib seekord jääda lahjaks. Samas anti esimese kvartali guidance konsensuse ootustest madalam, tulud $73.1 - $75.1 vs oodatud $77, aga see turgu eriti ei loksutanud ning sihti võetakse konservatiivsena.

    Hiinas võideti vastupidiselt paljude ootustele turuosa ning Online marketing tulud tõusid eelmise aastaga võrreldes 112%. See oli tingitud nii suuremast klientide hulgast kui kõrgemast tulust kliendi kohta (+48% yoy, +6% qoq). Neljandas kvartalis oli Baidul 155000 klienti, mis on 43% enam võrreldes varsema aastaga ja 8% rohkem võrreldes kolmanda kvartaliga. 

  • Iga päevaga ilmub taolisi toredaid pealkirju üha rohkem:

    The banking industry is shopping proposals to Congress that could shift some of the risk for troubled loans to the federal government.

    Oh seda nüüdset alandlikkust, ma ei viitsinud edasi lugeda :)

  • Eurooplase vaatevinklist W. Buiter: "If ever a bank was sufficiently systemically insignificant and small enough to fail by any metric except for the political embarrassment metric, it is surely IKB, the German small and medium enterprise lending bank that got itself exposed fatally to the US subprime crisis through a conduit (wholly owned off-balance sheet entity) devoted to speculative ventures involving instruments it did not understand." USA's vähemalt lastakse väiksematel pankadel ikka rahus allavett minna.
  • Täna tund aega enne turu avanemist teatatakse 9. veebruariga lõppeva nädala töötu abiraha taotlejate number, mis peaks jääma turu arvates 350 000 juurde (eelmine kord oli 356 000) ning detsembrikuine kaubandusbilansi defitsiit, millelt loodetakse võrreldes eelmise kuuga paranemist -$63.1 miljardi pealt -$61.5 miljardi peale.

    Tänase sõbrapäeva/valentipäeva puhul tervitused minu poolt kõigile LHV foorumikülastajatele! Üksikuna ei pea end täna tundma ka USA Föderaalreservi esimees, kel on täna 'kohting' Senatiga, kust peaks turule Bernanke arvamusi majanduse kohta kuskil kella 10 ajal (USA idaranniku aeg) jõudma.
  • Huvitav kas tarku Taani analüütikuid siis enam ei usuta :)

    http://www.ap3.ee/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=15e9cf40-1f50-48ca-bd2b-b2ec9aa1ed17&ref=rss
  • Initial Claims 348K vs 350K consensus, prior revised to 357K from 356K
    December Trade Balance -$58.8 bln vs -$62 bln consensus
  • Nii kaubandusbilansi number kui ka eelmise nädalaga võrreldes langenud töötu abirahade taotlejate numbrid pakuvad väikest positiivset üllatust, kuid turu üldisele liikumisele see täna ilmselt erilist mõju ei oma.
  • Altria(MO) välja jätmine Dow 30 indeksist on paari päeva pärast tõeks saamas ning indeksit järgivate fondide müügisurve peaks seetõttu lähiajal vähenema. RealMoney all on seda rõhutamas ka Scott Rothbort, kes oli just Altriat (MO) eile ostmas.
  • Saksamaa DAX +0.50%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.77%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.44%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.65%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.31%

    Poola WIG +0.20%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +4.27%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.68%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.37%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.58%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.15%

    Tai Set +0.33%

    India Sensex +4.82%

  • Stick to Your Guns
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/14/2008 7:26 AM EST


    If we begin with certainties, we shall end in doubts. But if we begin with doubts, and are patient in them, we shall end in certainties.
    -- Sir Francis Bacon

    Over the last few days, the market has enjoyed its second bounce within the ugly downtrend that started at the beginning of the year. The first bounce was a typical recovery following a bout of panic. That faded rather abruptly and set the market up for a retest of the lows. We didn't quite make it all the way back down, but we did descend far enough to cause worry and doubt and a jump in negative sentiment.

    The second bounce is now under way and is accompanied by a good supply of positive news and better technical action. We are still well within the longer-term downtrend, but we can be more hopeful that perhaps we will at least see a trading range emerge. A trading range at this juncture would be quite helpful in setting up an eventual market bottom.

    The key at this point is to be optimistic and to watch for continued improvement but to maintain some doubt and skepticism. Bounces within a bear market will always be enticing. We want to believe the worst is over, so we are quick to embrace better action. However, when we step back and look at the bigger picture it is clear that we are still struggling to escape a powerful downtrend that began back in October 2007. We have much work to do before the market can be said to be in an upward trajectory.

    Navigating the stock market is always a balancing act between being confident that a certain scenario will play out and staying open-minded in case conditions change. If we are too dogmatic, we risk substantial loss if he market does change course and we stick with our conviction. On the other hand if we are too noncommittal, we risk overreacting to slight changes and will miss the opportunity to catch bigger moves.

    The current market environment makes that dilemma particularly clear. While we want to be careful that we don't miss out on a meaningful market turn, we would be remiss if we ignored the fact that the bigger technical picture is still quite negative.

    The way you deal with that is to be clear and disciplined in your market approach. You can't allow yourself to get caught up in whatever the mood happens to be that day unless you are trading in an intraday time frame. You have to make sure you are buying stocks because they meet your parameters, not because the broad market acted better today and you are worried you don't have enough long exposure.

    It can be quite frustrating to be underinvested when the market puts in a day like yesterday, but that is the price you pay for an investment approach that respects technical action. By the same token, an investor who is heavily invested at this juncture has probably paid a price by buying too early and suffering losses along the way.

    Stick to your approach and don't let the market mood swings unduly influence you. One thing we have learned so far this year is that dramatic shifts are likely to continue.

    We have a slightly positive open on the way as yesterday's momentum continues and generally good news prevails. The Wall Street Journal has some worrisome articles about additional bad-debt issues, but earnings from the likes of Baidu (BIDU) are seeing favorable reaction.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PPO +13.9%, AMKR +13.6%, SUTR +10.1%, HIMX +9.8%, VCLK +9.3% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird and upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), AERO +8.0%, ALXN +7.4%, BIDU +7.2% (also upgraded to Outperform at RBC), EQIX +7.2%, TOMO +6.3%, GNK +6.2%, HS +6.1%, CMCSA +5.6% (also initiates dividend), RMKR +4.9%, CCRT +4.9% (also downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), GT +3.9%, PTEN +1.8%, NVDA +1.5%, SKX +1.5%, TASR +1.5%, KAI +1.5%... Select solar stocks trading higher with continued momentum from yesterday: CSIQ +4.3%, SPWR +3.8% (also signs a 3 GW silicon supply agreement with Jupiter, Qingdao DTK Industries; SPWR will purchase silicon from 2010 to 2016), STP +2.0%, JASO +1.8%, AKNS +1.3%, FSLR +1.1%... Other news: MBRK +12.6% (engages Morgan Stanley in its strategic process), MBI +4.8% (completes $1 bln common stock offering and increases claims-paying resources by more than $3 bln since inception of capital strengthening plan), DNDN +3.9% (presents data correlating the cumulative potency of PROVENGE to overall survival; correlation appeared to be independent of other important baseline prognostic factors), CAKE +3.9% (Nelson Peltz Trian firm discloses new 3.2 mln share stake in 13F filing), CCU +3.4% (DOJ says Clear Channel must sell stations to win deal approval, DOJ ruling means can proceed - DJ), ABK +3.4% (up in sympathy with MBI), FMC +2.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: REP +2.4% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm)

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: NHWK -15.2% (also hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), MDRX -13.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), LIZ -10.8%, STMP -9.3%, NTGR -8.8%, HPY -8.2%, AAP -5.4%, UBS -5.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), GSIC -5.3%, TTGT -5.1%, DVA -4.8%, GPRO -4.6%, IM -4.3% (also downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham), ZGEN -4.3%, SFSF -4.0%, NTAP -3.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), ATRO -3.3%, MHK -2.9%, XFML -2.9%... Other news: COIN -7.0% (files an S-3 related to 750k share common stock offering by selling shareholders), CS -1.9% (down in sympathy with UBS)... Analyst downgrades: LVLT -8.9% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), SNIC -7.1% (downgraded to Sell at Kaufman), KNOT -6.4% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), TECD -2.5% (downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham),
  • Microsoft (MSFT) kurdab, et nõudlus mängukonsooli Xbox 360 järele on olnud niivõrd pöörane, et USAs on pühadejärgselt see nüüd lihtsalt otsa saamas ning mõned edasimüüjad peavad mõnda aega ilma läbi ajama, enne kui suudetakse uut toodangut peale tuua.

    "We are really running short of product here in the United States," Jeff Bell, head of global marketing for Microsoft's games business, said in an interview. "You could say we misjudged demand. We're literally out of stock in many stores. We think this will have an impact on our sales," Bell said. ".../-/ as spring ramps up, we'll be able to meet that demand."
  • BERNANKE SAYS FED WILL ACT AS NEEDED TO SUPPORT GROWTH, PROVIDE INSURANCE AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISKS
    BERNANKE - OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMY HAS WORSENED IN RECENT MONTHS, DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH HAVE INCREASE - Reuters
    BERNANKE SAYS POLICY WORKS WITH LAG, STANCE MUST BE ASSESSED IN LIGHT OF MID-TERM FORECAST, RISKS
  • Turul liiguvad jutud, et Microsoft on oma pakkumist YHOO eest tõstmas $35 peale aktsia eest ning seda ollakse tegemas lähema 10 päeva jooksul, mis YHOO poolt siis juba ka vastu võetakse. Saame näha, kas see tõele vastab, aga igaljuhul YHOO aktsia on tänu sellele üle $30 suutnud ronida.
  • tundub, et spekulandid teevad head tööd? Vaevalt et selliste tehingute puhul kuskilt info lekib ja teada on lausa mõlema osapoole mõtted?
  • ktammin,
    hetkel ei ole midagi väga olulist silma jäänud. Keskmine käive on aktsial väike ning kui keegi enne tulemusi (19. veebruaril) ikkagi positsiooni sisse tahab võtta, tuleb seda teha kõrgema hinnaga lihtsalt.

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