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Börsipäev 20. veebruar - FOMCi protokoll ja nafta rekord

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Mõni aeg tagasi sai juttu tehtud Venemaa regionaaltelekomidest ning nende võimalustest kasutada ära oma monopoli seisust interneti levikul. Nüüd on avaldatud ka telekomide 2007. aasta internetikasutajate numbrid ning keksmiselt kasvatati lairibaühenduse klientide arvu 150% võrra. Volga Telekomil tõusis klientide arv 220% 380000-ni, Sibir Telekomi ja North-West Telekomi kasvunubrid olid vastavalt 224% ja 208%.

    Kasv on olnud võimas ja madala baasi tõttu lähiaastatel veel ei pidurdu. Võrrelduna teiste riikidega oli 2006. aasta seisuga pilt Venemaal selline:

    Internet Venemaal

     

     Siiani on interneti osakaal regionaaltelekomide tuludes jäänud keskmiselt 12% ümber, kuid seda nähakse jõuliselt kasvamas.

    Keskmiselt kauplevad RTOd 8.7 x korda 2008. aasta kasumit ning EV/EBITDA suhtel 3.7, kusjuures analüüsimajade üks lemmikutest Volga Telekom kaupleb veelgi madalamatel kordajatel. 

  • Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) tuli eile järelturul tulemustega ning numbrid väga korralikud. Ootusi löödi ja lisaks anti prognoose, mis varasematest tublisti agressiivsemad. Aktsia hetkel +4.6%. Kiideti oma rahvusvahelist müügitulu (69% müügist) ja selle tugevust ning öeldi, et ollakse kursis makroökonoomiliste vastutuultega ettevõtlusmaastikul. Tarbija nõrkust hakati USAs reaalselt tunnetama 2. fiskaalkvartali lõpu poole ning ka PC'de müük muutis neid ses osas pisut ärevaks ning nüüd ollakse USAle rohkem tähelepanu pööramas.

    Mitmed analüüsimajad on täna juba ettevõtet kiitma tulnud.
  • Madis, millised vene telekomid USAs noteeritud on?
  • kaidoke, ainult kaks suuremat, MTS (MBT) ja Vimpelcom (VIP), on NYSEl kaubeldavad. Ükski regionaaltelekom USA börsidel noteeritud ei ole, kuid kõiki saab LHV vahendusel osta läbi MICEXi.
  • Core CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% consensus
    CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus
    Core CPI y/y 2.5% vs +2.4% consensus
    CPI y/y 4.3% vs +4.2% consensus

    Inflatsioonitont kummitab ja intressimäärade langetamine keerulisem.
  • Hmm... kaua tehtud kaunikene - stagflatsioon (ja inflatsiooni importimine) on tänane reaalsus.
  • Vot selliste numbritega tasub äri ajada:

    China Mobile: Record net additions in January.
    Pali Capital says CHL reported record net subscriber additions of 7.044 mln that topped their est by 1.235 mln subscribers. This month surpassed the previous record month of Oct 2007, which had 6.603 mln net additions.

  • Citigroup on kommenteerimas Burger King’i (BKC) järgmisel nädalal toimuva analüütikupäeva eel. Citi ootab, et juhtkond kinnitab 2008-nda aasta ja pikaajalised kasumikasvu eesmärgid. Samuti on tõenäoliselt läbivateks teemadeks USA makrotrendide mõju, rahvusvaheline laienemine ja vaba rahavoo kasutamine:

    Remain Positive on U.S. — We sense that trends in the U.S. are still solid, driven by value, extended hours, and Whopper sandwiches. We estimate Burger King will end F'08 with positive net growth of 23 units, marking the first year of net unit growth after many years of declines.
    Overseas Opportunities — Burger remains committed to international growth. We expect an update on continued improvement in EMEA (especially the recovery in the UK), new opportunities in APAC (e.g., re-entry in Japan and growth in China), and perhaps recent challenges in Latin America.
    Free Cash Priorities — Given the solid returns on remodels and rebuilds, we expect this to remain a high priority for the company. It seems that U.S. remodeling efforts are in the early innings. We expect the company to continue returning cash to shareholders via buyback and dividends.


    Kinnitatakse „Osta“ reitingut hinnasihiga $31, mis praeguselt hinnatasemelt tähendaks 26% preemiat. Kuigi ettevõtet ei jätaks võimalik majandussurutis puutumata, siis Citi arvates on juhtkonna tugevus ja rahvusvaheline kasv seda kompenseerimas. BKC on jätkuvalt Citigroupi parimate valikute („Top Small/Mid-Cap Pick“) nimekirjas.
  • Euroopas valitsevad igal juhul väga ühtsed meeleolud:

    Saksamaa DAX -1.93%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.88%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.95%

    Hispaania IBEX -1.80%

    Venemaa MICEX -1.90%

    Poola WIG -1.89%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.25%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.21%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.23%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.41%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.21%

    Tai Set -1.07%

    India Sensex -2.53%

  • Develop the Skill of Waiting

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/20/2008 8:16 AM EST

    "Waiting is not mere empty hoping. It has the inner certainty of reaching the goal." -- I Ching


    For a while now I have been focusing on a rather simple theme: The market is in a downtrend, and we shouldn't try to anticipate when it will end. Trends tend to persist, and it is very easy to be overanxious in anticipating their end.

    Unfortunately, investors tend to be very impatient when it comes to anticipating when a market bottom may form. The media and many market professionals constantly feed the feeling that we better hurry and put our cash to work or we'll will miss out on the giant rally that is sure to come at any moment.

    It can be very hard to ignore that sense of urgency that infects Wall Street during a downtrend. What is particularly ironic about it is that we are urged to be impatient and to hurry up and buy, but once we are invested we are urged to be patient and to withstand the pain of poorly acting stocks. If we stay fully invested and just bide our time, things will eventually get better.

    Patience works both ways when it comes to investing. It isn't something you should embrace only after you buy a stock. You should also be patient in deploying your precious capital in a struggling market.

    The most important thing for investors to keep in mind as they contemplate this market is that there will be plenty of time to buy once the action improves. People are so fearful that they will miss out on buying the absolute bottom that they have little patience.

    I am patient in this downtrend because I know that eventually the opportunity will come to aggressively buy in an uptrend. If I don't let losses build up during a downtrend, I will be far ahead of the pack. That is the nature of the market.

    I don't need to hope that this downtrend will end soon. I know it will end at some point, and all I have to do right now is to stay patient and let events play out. I have absolute confidence that being defensive and disciplined and patient at this point will ensure my eventual success.

    We have another poor open on the way as the many negatives out there overwhelm a pretty good earnings report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). KKR Financial (KFN) is the latest firm in the bad-debt spotlight as it attempts to restructure some of its massive debt. In addition, the move in crude oil over the psychologically important $100 level is causing added concerns. It is difficult to understand how high oil prices can not be a negative for an economy that's trying to avoid a recession.

    The doom and gloom is thick, and technicians are starting to talk about the likelihood that we may retest the lows we saw in January. I have no idea whether that will occur, but I do know that there is no reason to assume that our downtrend has ended.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PCTI +8.3%, GRMN +6.5%, JAKK +6.0%, CEC +5.5%, HPQ +5.0%, IRBT +4.6%, AXYS +3.9%, BIDZ +3.8%, OSTE +2.8%, WINN +2.3%, ICON +2.0%, RIG +1.6%, ZIXI +1.2%, MRH +1.2%, UAM +1.0%... Other news: COMS +5.4% (Bain withdraws approval request for 3Com deal, people say-Bloomberg), TMS +4.1% (rebounding modestly after past week's huge decline), ADSK +2.5% (announces intent to acquire Kynogon SA; expects transaction to decrease targeted GAAP EPS by $0.01-0.02 in FY09), SIRF +1.4% (up in sympathy with GRMN), SHPGY +1.2% (still checking), MBI +1.2% (Brown sees decision this week to retain AAA - Bloomberg.com), UBS +1.1% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: MTH +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: TGIS -46.0% (also suspended dividend), NTRI -25.1% (also downgraded to Neutral at Broadpoint), TRAK -21.4%, STP -19.4%, NED -16.1%, LLNW -14.9% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), TXRH -14.2%, CROX -12.7%, RMIX -9.5%, VRAZ -8.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse and downgraded to Hold at Cantor), ARTC -6.5%, ANW -5.3%, WOLF -4.9%, CHB -4.4%, TWB -2.6%, WFMI -2.5%, IPHS -2.0%, SDXC -1.7%, JCOM -1.0%... Select solar stocks showing weakness following STP earnings: CSUN -9.2%, LDK -7.8%, JASO -7.1%, SPWR -5.2%, YGE -5.0%, ESLR -2.9%, SOLF -2.9%, FSLR -2.8%... Other news: SHRP -58.3% (files for bankruptcy), VOD -4.0% (down in sympathy with Telecom downgrades), BHP -3.1% (still checking), GSK -2.5% (still checking), WTW -2.0% (down in sympathy with NTRI earnings)... Analyst downgrades: T -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse and downgraded to Neutral at Baird), COH -2.5% (downgraded to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel), CMCSA -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse).
  • Turgudel toimub väga huvitav liikumine ning eelturu inflatsioonihirm on hetkel üles ostetud. Ei tea kas päevalõpus näeme ka tugevat allamüüki?
  • Fed says it sees US employment rate at 5.2-5.3% in 2008; 5-5.3% in 2009; 4.9-5.1% in 2010
    Fed says decisive rate cut seen as Reducing Economic Worries
    Fed raises total inflation forecast to 2.1%-2.4% vs 1.8%-2.1%
    Fed Minutes says 50-basis-point rate cut not seen contributing to inflation pressures given weakness
    Market View: Minor new highs for Dow and Nasdaq Comp after FOMC but edging back in recent action -Update- -Technical-
    Fed raises '08 jobless rate forecast to 5.2%-5.3% vs 4.8%-4.9%
    Fed judged inflation data "disappointing," expects core inflation to "moderate" over next 2 years
    Fed Sees Slower US Econ Growth, Rising Price Pressure In '08
    Fed cuts 2008 GDP growth forecast to 1.3%-2.0% from 1.8%-2.5%
    Fed says chance of steeper home price drop, cutting wealth and credit access, a 'significant risk'
    Fed says some worried Jan 22 cut would be seen as mkt-driven
    Fed says it lowered U.S. economic growth forecast due to housing contraction, tighter credit
    Most Fed officials saw risks to growth as weighted to downside, jobless rate risk tilted to upside
  • Ja hinnarekordid jätkuvad:

    Crude Oil makes new all time high of $101.27pbl

  • Ja meie bensiinijaamad tõstsid ka kohe solidaarsusest hindu...
  • Miks solidaarsusest? Meil ju pole ühtegi naftakaevu, kust võiks enda tarbeks seda vedelikku ammutama, ikka peame seda väljast sisse ostma ja vaevalt, et keegi meile üldisest hinnast odavamalt seda müüma nõustub.
  • Meil on kallid naftavarud ainult siis kui hind langeb. Kes siis seda ei tea.....

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