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Börsipäev 22. veebruar

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  • Get Ready for a Breakout -- or a Breakdown

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/22/2008 8:18 AM EST

    Do not confuse motion and progress. A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress.
    -- Alfred A. Montapert


    Recent market action is much like a rocking horse. We keep moving back and forth and going nowhere. Technically, this action has given as a very clearly defined trading range and has everyone focused on which way are going to break.

    The bulls argue that we have stopped going down and are building good support that is promising for an upside resolution. The bears say that a trading range within a downtrend has a great likelihood of breaking to the downside rather than reversing upward.

    My tendency is to side with the bears and look for a downside breakdown. I have a hard time embracing the bullish argument that the market has already priced in the worst. It seems like every day there is a new alphabet soup of debt issues, and there is still a large contingent of market players who think we will escape the clutches of a nasty recession. I'm simply not convinced that that bad news has been bad enough and that we can resist the power of gravity that exists within a downtrend.

    One scenario I'm keeping firmly in mind is what Helene Meisler suggested yesterday, which is a failed move to the upside before we break to the downside. That is the sort of thing that the Market Beast loves to do in order to dole out the most pain to the most people.

    Inversely, a fake breakdown is also something we must make sure we keep in mind as this trading range resolves itself. When trading ranges are as obvious as the present one is, there is much greater danger that there will be false breakouts as traders become increasingly aggressive in trying to get a jump on others. Everyone wants to catch the breakout or breakdown, and that makes for lots of spiky moves.

    Although I'm leaning toward a downside breakdown, the good thing is that I need not make any big bet on that scenario at this point. I'm sitting on a lot of cash and have the luxury of simply watching the action and reacting as things develop. I don't need to be wildly bullish or bearish. I can be opportunistic and wait to make my moves as things begin to move.

    The most important thing you can do at this point is to understand the environment and to have a plan in mind for how you will deal with it as it unfolds. If we break down, what moves are you going to make? Are you going to raise cash, dump positions or aggressively short? If we continue to hold and show signs of turning up, what stocks are you going to buy, and what time frame will you use?

    I don't know how things will play out, but I do know that there are going to be some good opportunities for those who are ready.

    We have a flat to slightly down start to the day, which is a change after three days of gaps of more than 1%. Overseas markets were mostly soft, and oil and gold are trading up.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OPTV +25.0%, NCTY +15.8%, ROP +12.4%, ASGN +10.3%, EVVV +10.2%, HYC +10.0%, TSON +7.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), UEIC +6.4%, LYG +6.4%, STV +6.4%, ACTG +5.6%, SWIM +5.3%, RRGB +3.3%, VLCM +2.9%, MINI +2.8%, DTE +2.5%, NDSN +2.4%, ME +1.5%, ESRX +1.4%... M&A news: ESST +24.2% (to be acquired by Imperium Partners for $1.64/share in cash )... Select solar stocks trading higher following yesterday's decline: LDK + 4.8% (signs an eight-year wafer supply agreement with Hyundai Heavy Industries), AKNS + 2.2%, YGE + 1.9%, SOLF + 1.8%, JASO + 1.6%, SOLF + 1.5%... Other news: ATSI +33.5% (announces initial clinical results of stand-alone atrial fibrillation procedures using ats Cryomaze product line), FRPT +14.5% (awarded two contracts for ~123 mln - Department of Defense and $8 mln Order for Italian Ministry of Defense), OMEX +7.1% (enters motion in North Carolina Shipwreck Case), UBS +3.4% and HBC +3.3% (still checking), LLY +3.0% (FDA Grants Priority Review for Daiichi Sankyo, Lilly Drug, prasugrel), WWE +2.9% (boosts dividend by 50% to $0.36 from $0.24), VDSI +2.7% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's decline), ABAX +2.6% (will replace ALAB in the S&P SmallCap 600), LAVA +1.8% (authorizes common share repurchase program up to $20 mln of its common stock)... Analyst upgrades: SOL +11.9% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), SDXC +8.1% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James ), DFS +3.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), MT +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), DTV +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), IMCL +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen), DISCA +1.7% (upgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), WMB +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: MRGE -46.8%, CBEY -28.5% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia and downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James), UNFI -24.5% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray), ETEL -21.6%, DAIO -19.5%, LFT -12.9%, QDEL -12.3%, LTM -8.9%, RUTH -8.7%, MGRC -5.6% (also downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), GAS -4.4%, INTU -4.3%, CYH -4.0%, GFIG -2.7%, CLF -2.6%, CHE -2.6%, KGC -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), MVSN -2.1%, CHK -1.8%, MORN -1.7%... Other news: BRLC -36.4% (announced in an 8-K it entered into a second amendment to their credit and guaranty agreement), CACB -4.6% (increases Q4 provision for credit losses), TGB -3.0% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: FRE -4.5% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), FNM -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), GILD -2.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Bernstein), KSWS -2.0% (downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), BBY -1.7% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
  • Merryll langetas FNM ja FRE reitingut "müü" peale seoses krediidiprobleemidega.
  • Ja mõlemad turu alguses tugevas languses!
  • Moodyse andmetel võib oodata kommertsvõlakirjadele rohkem reitingute tõstmist, kui langetamist 2008 aastal.
  • Ja ka järelturul turud tugevas rallis ülespoole.
  • Päeva lõpus oli "short squeeze" ?
  • Eile tehti siis sellist päevalõppu ja ei ühtki kommentaari LHV poolt selle kohta.

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