LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 27. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilse ARM (adjustable rate mortgages) laenude jutu jätkuks täna WSJ-s lugu, kuidas paljude laenuvõtjate jaoks ei ole Fedi poolt langetatud intressimääradest abi olnud. Osade laenude intressimaksed on koguni tõusnud ning teiste puhul ei ole langus olnud Fedi määradega ligilähedaseltki sama suur.

    Fikseeritud määrade puhul on 30-aastase laenu määr 6.38%, sisuliselt muutumatu septembrist, kuid tõusnud jaanuari lõpust. Jumbo laenude määrad olid 7.35%, samamoodi sarnasel tasemel septembri omadega. ARMidel on läinud natuke paremini - septembri 6.29% pealt on langetud 5.43%-ni. 

    Taoline olukord on tekkinud, kuna enamus hüpoteeklaene on seotud pikaajalise Treasury yieldiga, mis inflatsioonihirmu tõttu ei ole langenud, lisaks on tänu pankade vastumeelsusele laenude väljastamisel suurenenud spreadid.

  • Uus päevasisene rekord naftalt - $101.70 barreli eest.
  • Kas tänud dõllari langusele stabiliseerul üle 100$ lõpuks?
  • Seda stabiliseerumist on raske prognoosida ja kuigi lühiajaliselt võimalik, siis naftabarreli hind $100 tundub vähe pikema aja jooksul liialt optimistlik. Ja ega dollargi kaua langeda ei pruugi.
  • Täna enne kauplemise algust avaldatakse kestvuskaupade müüginumbrid, toornafta varude suurus ning uute majade müüginumbrid. Kuigi uute majade müük langes viimasel kahel kuul kokku 17%, ei oodata nii järku langust sellel korral. Müüginumbrite vähenemist prognoositakse alla 1%, samas võivad tõusta varud rekordilisele tasemele.

    Briefingust pilt uute majade müügi varasemale dünaamikale:

    newhome

  • Mis takistab kauba hinnal langeda kui kaupa järjest rohkem tuuakse turule?
  • Hinnad ongi langenud ja ega lähiaja tõusu ei prognoosi veel keegi. Samas võib ka erinevate näitajate vahel esineda mõningane ajaline nihe.
  • USA suurim luksusmajade ehitaja Toll Brothers (TOL) avaldas täna oma majandusaasta esimese kvartali tulemused. Kahjumit teeniti $96 miljonit ehk $0.61, mis on $0.11 analüütikute oodatust halvem. Kahjum sisaldas ka $245.5 miljoni ulatuses varade ümberhindamisest saadud maksueelset miinust ning kui see koos JV-ga seotud ühekordsete kuludega kõrvale jätta, oleks teenitud kasumit $54.3 miljonit ehk $0.33 aktsia kohta. Kuigi selline oleks-poleks mäng võib investoreid natuke lohutada, siis maa ja kinnisvara ümberhindamisest tulenevat kahju võib ettevõte saada ka tulevastes kvartalites.

    Eelmise aastal teeniti kasumit $0.39 aktsia kohta, kuid võrdlude huvides tuleks ka siin ühekordsed kulud kõrvale jätta. Sellisel juhul teeniti eelmisel aastal $118.9 miljonit ehk aktsiapõhiselt $0.72 ehk üle kahe korra enam. Positiivne on siiski see, et majade müügihind väga palju langenud ei ole. Kui eelmisel aastal saadi lepingu täitmise eest $646000, siis 2008. aasta esimesel kvartalil oli keskmine hind langenud $634000 peale, kusjuures osaliselt oli kukkumine tingitud strateegia ja tooteportfelli muutustest.

    Ettevõtte tegevjuht Rober I. Toll arvas turul toimuva kohta nii:

    ``Ceaseless talk of a recession continues to dampen the mood of consumers in general, whether or not a recession actually occurs. For home buyers, we believe this drumbeat, coupled with concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures, has kept pent-up demand on the sidelines."

    Imelikul kombel ei vihjatud ajakirjanduse halvale mõjule siis, kui kinnisvarahinnad pidevalt tõusid... Aga vähemalt tulevikku nähakse positiivsemalt:

    ``Household formations continue to grow as they are projected to do into the next decade. Personal wealth continues to be created as well. Mortgage rates are low, unemployment is still low by historical standards, and housing affordability has continued to improve. Conforming and jumbo mortgages are quite available to buyers such as ours, with strong credit scores and reasonably leveraged home purchases. We believe that revived buyer confidence is paramount to getting the market moving again. Only when customers believe we are done with housing deflation will the excess supply clear and the market return to equilibrium.''

    Toll Brothers ei ole oma klientuuri tõttu nii avatud ka subprime probleemidele, kuid sektori üldine nõrkus oma mõju loomulikult avaldab. Samas on majadeehitajad olnud viimastel kuudel üks paremini esinenud sektoreid börsil. Investorid loodavad põhja saabumisele tööstuses ning intressikärbete positiivsele mõjule.

    Seda arvamust tundub jagavat ka Lehman Brothers, kes näeb tööstuse väljavaadete paranemist.  Lisaks Toll Brothersile annab Lehman "overweight" reitingu D. R. Hortonile (DHR) ja Ryland Groupile (RYL), positsioone soovitatakse vähendada Hovnanianis (HOV).

  • SIGMA Designs muutus juba atraktiivseks :-)
  • Energy, ka mulle muutus Sigma eile teist korda soodsaks...

    Rahaga läbi korrigeeritult on ettevaatav P/E suhe 10 ringis ja seda ettevõttel, mille puhaskasum kasvas viimases kvartalis 144% qoq. Päris sama tempoga küll ei jätkata, kuid juhtkond ise ootab neljanda kvartali tulude kasvu 10%-15% qoq ning analüütikud prognoosivad käesoleva aasta tulude kasvuks 56%.

    Aktsia on kõvasti peksa saanud ja lühiajaliselt võib surve jätkuda, kuid tulu, marginaalid ja kasum peaksid kolinaga kukkuma, et nii madalat valuatsiooni õigustada.
  • Fannie Mae on kuulutamas oma nägemust, et 2008. aastal jääb võrreldes eelmise aastaga veelgi enam inimesi oma maksetega hiljaks ning pangad on sunnitud jätkuvalt väga suuri mahte maju haamri alla panema.
  • Omavolitsen nüüd natuke ja panen paar graafikut Jeffries'i 200 lehekülje pikkusest tehnilise analüüsi eeposest:

    BIDU

    WTI

    Peaasi, et keegi lisaselgitusi ei küsiks.

    :)

  • January Durable Goods Orders -5.3% vs -4.0% consensus, prior month +5.0%
  • Futuurid tegid kestvuskaupade tulemusele tubli nõksaka alla(-0.7%), lisa on tulemas kell 17:00 kui avaldatakse uute majade müüginumbrid, ootus 600K
  • Teraviljad on sarnaselt naftale muutunud viimasel ajal väga volatiilseks - põhjuseks kauplejate arvu kiire suurenemine. Näiteks viimase 4 kauplemispäevaga tõusis nisu hind 17%, täna tehti aga enam kui 20 aasta suurim ühepäevane kukkumine -11%...
  • Saksamaa DAX -1.19%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.53%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.32%

    Hispaania IBEX -1.11%

    Venemaa MICEX -0.79%

    Poola WIG -0.46%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.49%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.24%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.26%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.68%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.21%

    Tai Set -0.37%

    India Sensex +0.11%

  • No nii

    Press Release Source: Sigma Designs, Inc.

    Sigma Announces Share Repurchase Program
    Wednesday February 27, 9:15 am ET


    MILPITAS, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sigma Designs (Nasdaq:SIGM - News), a leader in digital media processor SoC’s for consumer electronics, today announced that its board of directors has approved a share repurchase program that authorizes Sigma to repurchase up to 2 million shares of Sigma’s common stock.

    “We believe a repurchase program is an attractive use of our cash and underscores our belief in the long-term value of our stock as well as our commitment to deliver shareholder value,” said Thinh Tran, Sigma’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “At our current trading levels, our board of directors believes that Sigma stock presents an attractive investment for the Company and its shareholders. We are confident that we can continue to invest in the research and development initiatives that are key to our future success and enhance the value of our company by repurchasing common stock under this program.”

    The amount and timing of specific repurchases are subject to market conditions, applicable legal requirements and other factors, including management’s discretion. Repurchases may be conducted in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions and the repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the board of directors at any time. There is no guarantee as to the exact number of shares that will be repurchased under the program. The repurchases will be funded from available working capital.

  • The Balancing Act

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/27/2008 8:45 AM EST

    Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.
    -- Oscar Wilde


    One of the biggest challenges for investors in the current market environment is trying to reconcile our view of the economy with the action in the market. It has been more tricky than usual lately, as a steady flow of negatives are being ignored while the market celebrates questionable positives, such as a deal for bond insurers and an increase in IBM (IBM) estimates of less than 1%.

    The dollar is reaching record lows; oil, gold and commodities are hitting record highs; signs of inflation grow; more bad debt write-offs emerge; and housing prices erode at an accelerated pace -- yet the market holds up fairly well. How does an investor reconcile this poor news flow with fairly good market action?

    Either we have to believe the market has already priced in all these negatives or that it is enjoying some short-term denial. The difficulty is that the best course of action for investors usually is to defer to the price action. In the long run, it never pays to argue with a market that isn't doing what you think it should do, but in the short term, seemingly irrational market action is much more difficult to handle.

    There is no easy way to deal markets that are acting contrary to how you think they should. If you are too stubborn and hold on to your convictions you risk being buried as a new trend emerges, but if you are too wishy-washy and react to minor day-to-day movements, you will miss out on profiting from insights.

    While we want to have conviction in the face of contrary action, we don't want to be obstinate should things not play out the way we believe. To accomplish that, we have to have some lines in the sand. We have to admit we are wrong and cut our losses if the market continues to act contrary to what we feel. We can always re-enter our trades, but conviction is a very dangerous thing in a market that is often quite irrational.

    I feel quite strongly that the market has more downside to come. I simply don't see how all the fundamental negatives and uncertainties can be priced into this market. However, I also recognize that within a larger downtrend, we are going to have some good rallies, and I need to be flexible enough to profit from them when they occur. In addition, at some point a major turn will come, and I have to make sure I'm not overly stubborn in embracing a real change in the market.

    When I look at the charts of the major indices, I see a clear downtrend with some typical relief rallies. Nothing that has happened is sufficient to make me feel that my embrace of bigger downtrend is wrong at this point. I'll stay open-minded and will continue to respect the price action of the market, but days like yesterday aren't sufficient to turn me into a bull.

    We have a weak start this morning. I'm still short some indices from yesterday and will make some partial covers into this weakness.


    ---------------------------
    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: ADSK -13.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham and downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkEquity), DY -8.8%, LAMR -8.7%, NT -8.3%, URS -7.1%, CRI -6.5%, ESST -5.9%, DRC -5.3%, BTUI -5.1%, APSG -4.8%, FNM -4.5%, DYN -4.4%, OSG -4.3%, CVTX -3.6%, IHP -3.1%, BMRN -2.9%, BID -2.8%, RRC -2.7%, TX -2.6%, SQM -2.1%, SCRX -1.7%, MGA -1.4%, ORA -1.4%... Select solar stocks showing weakness following multiple downgrades: JASO -8.1% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), SOLF -6.6% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), TSL -5.0% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), YGE -4.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), LDK -1.5%, ESLR -1.4%, FSLR -1.2%... Select agriculture names showing weakness: CF -2.6%, TRA -2.5%, MOS -2.3%, AGU -2.2%, POT -2.2%, MON -1.8%... Other news: RJA -4.7% (still checking), EEP -3.8% (announces an offering of ~4 mln of its Class A common units), FRE -2.9% (down in sympathy with FNM), CF -2.9% (reports outage at its Medicine Hat, Alberta Nitrogen complex), ENS -2.7% (registers to sell 5 mln shares of common stock for holders), DAL -2.6% (CEO Anderson says no merger agreement yet with Northwest Air), AZN -2.2% (stopping study on the experimental cancer drug Recentin - DJ), KMP -1.9% (files for a 4.3 mln common unit secondary offering), JPM -1.4% (estimates cut at Citigroup), AMGN -1.6% and JNJ -1.1% (anemia drugs have blood clot, death risk, according to study - DJ)... Analyst downgrades: COST -2.2% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm).

  • Lausa suurepärane lause ühelt lühikeseksmüümise kuningalt Doug Kassilt reitinguagentuuride otsuse üle jätta krediidireitingud võlakirjade kindlustajatel muutmata: "If you want AAA, buy batteries, not MBIA stock."

    Ja põhjendused on igati õiged - ettevõtte kasumlikkusest oleks patt rääkida, bilanss on võlgu täis ja viimase aja kaasatud kaitali intressimäärad üle 10%. Aeg seda näitab, kuid kaldun ka ise arvama, et ühel hetkel võidakse ikkagi seda reitingut 'on negative watch' koha pealt mingil hetkel siiski downgrade'ida.
  • Ja jätkub nõrkus majade turul:

    January New Home Sales 588K vs 600K consensus,-2.8 m/m change %, prior month revised to 605K from 604K
  • OFHEO to remove portfolio caps on Fannie, Freddie March 1

    Ja põhjus turu kiire hüppe taga.
  • Bernanke viimased 2 kõne on uskumatult turge mõjutanud. Täna siis vihjed edasiste intressikärbete osas on viinud turud päris jõudsasti ülespoole ja hetkel tundub, et nii jätkatakse päeva lõpuni.
  • Demokraadid on teadagi olnud nafta ettevõtete vastu ja alternatiivsete energiaallikate poolt. Täna siis WSJ's taas üles ujunud jutud demokraatide püüdlustest täiendavaid makse nafta ettevõtete hiidkasumitele peale suruda. Briefingu kokkuvõte:

    Democrats seeks to raise taxes on oil companies

    WSJ reports Democrats in Congress are relying on record oil prices and a surge in gasoline costs to make another attempt at imposing $18 bln in new taxes on the largest oil cos. With crude oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel and gasoline prices moving well over $3 a gallon -- and indications that $4 is not out of the picture as the summer driving season approaches -- the House scheduled a vote on the tax measure for late Wednesday afternoon. The House bill, similar to one that failed to win Senate approval last fall, would roll back two lucrative tax breaks for the largest U.S. oil cos, and use the money for tax incentives to support wind, solar and biofuel industries as well as energy efficiency programs. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sought to use the soaring prices at the pump as a way to garner support for the bill. Her office distributed a state-by-state list of high gasoline prices -- up by more than 75 cents a gallon from a year ago -- compared with oil industry profits.
  • sellised lükked saavutavad kindlalt ainult kõrgemaid naftahindu, ülejäänud eesmärkide saavutamine on kahtlasem...
  • Võlakirjade kindlustajate aktsiate pooldajatel peaks täna veel üks häirekell põlema minema - Goldman Sachs on vähendanud oma osalust ABK's 2.3% peale varasemalt üle 5%...
  • Gmarket (GMKT) tulemustega väljas:

    GMKT prelim $0.26 vs $0.23 First Call consensus; revs $71.8 mln vs $72.84 mln First Call consensus
  • Seal pole ju käivet, kogu päev 400,000 aktsiat.

Teemade nimekirja