LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 19. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilse intresside langetamisega 2.25% peale oleme tänaseks jõudnud USAs olukorda, kus reaalintressid (võttes arvesse inflatsiooni) on põhimõtteliselt 0%. Tasuta raha, kes soovib?

    Ja nagu eile hilja sai öeldud, ootame täna eelturul Morgan Stanley (MS) tulemusi ja Visa (V) esimest kauplemispäeva pärast edukat IPOt, millega koguti $17.9 miljardit. Aktsiad müüdi $44 eest tükk (algne pakkumisvahemik oli $37-$42). Visa konkurent Mastercard (MA) näitab ka selles valguses veel kindlasti huvi üles.
  • Sarnaselt eelmisele aastale otsustas Sberbank dividendidena välja maksta 10% oma kasumist. Kuna 2007. aasta kasum kasvas 33%, siis maksmisele kuulub $495 miljonit, mis praeguse hinna juures teeb dividendimääraks 0.7%. VTB vastav näitaja peaks tulema 1.5%-2% vahele.
  • Mis kell Morgan Stanley (MS) oma tulemused avaldab?
  • Heiti, MS peaks tulemused avaldama u poole tunni pärast.
  • USD ja EURO hinnasuhte ilmestamiseks: Kui uurida selliste rahvusvaheliste ettevõtete kui GE ja JNJ aktsia käekäiku viimase 5 aasta jooksul, siis graafikute põhjal on selgelt näha, et kui dollaris on aktsiahind vahepeal tõusnud, siis euros on see püsinud kogu perioodi jooksul pigem stabiilsena. Nüüd viimastel kuudel on mõlema firma aktsiad vajunud euros 5-aastast perioodi silmas pidades miinusesse. Nii et antud juhtumil ei ole aidanud ka investeerimine rahvusvahelise haardega firmadesse.
    Siiski, paremini on läinud tehnoloogiaettevõtetel Siemens ja ABB, mis on isegi euros 5 aasta jooksul jäänud korralikku plussi.
  • Eelturul on Visa (V) aktsiate ostunoteering õige kõrgele tõmmatud. Kui IPO hinnaks kujunes $44, siis praegu soovitakse osta $60 eest.
  • MS prelim $1.45 vs $1.03 First Call consensus; revs $8.32 bln vs $7.19 bln First Call consensus
  • hmmm... kuuldused USA finantsektori varajasest surmast on siiski enneaegsed?!
  • Ei tea, agoonia võib olla pikk, vahest suuremate hingetõmmetega.
  • Ma esmaspäeval võtsin ühe Jan2009 10 strikega Bear Sternsi (BSC) call optsiooni. Minu tees on see, et nii madala hinnaga pole lihtsalt mõistlik suurtel BSC hoidjatel aktsiat müüa. Kui sa oled 80 dollariga Beari aktsias sees, siis pole enam vahet, kas sa saad 2 dollarit või null dollarit. Seega on kasulikum hakata JPMi pakkumisele vastu ja püüda teistmoodi välja rabeleda.
    Ameeriklased ei kipu olema nii alandlikud, nagu eestlased. Kui nähakse viga laita, siis hakatakse vastu. Tõenäoliselt on aktivist fondid juba üle poole Bearist kokku ostnud.
  • Nojah, nagu Rogers-i vana ütles, et see ei ole kapitalism, vaid sotsialism, kui panku tulest välja tuuakse. Samas ütles veel mees, et tema astuks tagasi, kui ta Ben-i nahas oleks. FED-i huvitab ainult pankade heaolu, aga tava ameeriklane peab selle peo kinni maksma. Ta viitas samuti 90-te Jaapanile. Järelikult lähevad asjad veel kehvemaks, sest inflatsiooni vastu võitlematta, see pidu kaua ei kesta.
  • Hiinas aktsia- ja võlakirjatulud jätkuvalt maksuvabad.

    China won't impose tax on stock, bond gains, Xinhua says
  • olen mõõdukalt optimistlik, kuid ei maksa liialt rõõmustada pankade tulemuste üle ... lihtsalt ootused olid väga madalad ja neid õnnestus seeläbi lüüa, aga aastatagusega võrreldes on tulud ja kasumlikkus kõvasti kukkunud
  • Euroopa turud paraku Aasia tugevust jätkata ei ole suutnud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.50%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.20%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.62%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.28%

    Venemaa MICEX -0.24%

    Poola WIG -0.46%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.48%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.26%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.52%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.39%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.00%

    Tai Set -0.57%

    India Sensex +1.09%

  • Bear-Market-Rally Thesis Remains Unchanged

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributo

    The two worst strategic mistakes to make are acting prematurely and letting an opportunity slip; to avoid this, the warrior treats each situation as if it were unique and never resorts to formulae, recipes or other people's opinions.

    --Paulo Coelho

    Tuesday's huge surge in the indices, which is the second in the past 10 days, stirred up some optimism that the worst may be over for this market. While these big moves do create better potential for more upside in the near term, we still need much more proof before we can be confident that a major change in market direction is occurring. While a big surge is promising, such action often occurs within the confines of a bear market and results in trapping overly hopeful bottom-fishers.

    The dilemma of the market at this juncture is that investors don't want to be left out if these are indeed the early stages of a market turn. However, they don't want to be premature and rush in and risk being caught in a failed bounce.

    Bear-market bounces can be big, fast and quite profitable if you catch them, but they can also end with a quick thud and cause much pain for those who don't maintain distrust as they attempt to profit.

    I've stated many times recently that my basic assumption about the market is that we are in a downtrend, and I assume it will continue until there is hard evidence to the contrary. Tuesday's big move is not adequate evidence of a major turn. It is simply a good day which may see some follow-through, but there is no reason to trust that the worst is over as some have already declared.

    Already this morning some jitters are popping up, as worries about the real estate market remain and questions about whether lower interest rates really will help are raised. While the bounce in the financials and the moves by the Fed have helped ease some worries, there is still little proof that the fundamental issues plaguing the market are getting any better.

    After Tuesday's move, the bulls have an edge, and the fact that there is a high level of skepticism is a positive for more upside. However, we still have to treat this action as nothing more than a bear-market bounce. It is possible that it may develop into something more, but we can't jump to that conclusion at this point. It is going to take some time for the market to prove itself, and we shouldn't worry too much about trying to be heavily invested just in case. There is still too much risk out there to trust that we are seeing anything more than a bounce.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FMCN +12.0%, LNN +7.5%, ADBE +5.4%, DFS +5.4%, AIR +5.3%, ATU +4.1%, MS +3.8%, CAH +2.5%, ROST +2.5%, GIS +1.7%, DRI +1.5%... Other news: BSC +14.6% (Joseph Lewis and former BSC CEO Jimmy Cayne are quietly searching for a white knight - NY Post), PRXI +11.1% (signs ten year agreement With Luxor Resort & Casino in Las Vegas to develop a new exhibition complex), NCC +4.4% (reports expected Visa IPO gain, expects 1Q08 pre-tax cash gain of approx $450 mln; also upgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), TMA +3.4% (showing continued strength following yesterday's ~20% gains), PERY +2.0% (to be added to S&P SmallCap 600 Index; will take place of BELM), OI +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), EMKR +1.3% (comments on recent trading activity; to continue substantial revs growth and improve profitability), ACIW +1.1% (signs IT outsourcing agreement with IBM; estimated cost savings of $25-$30 mln)... Analyst upgrades: GTY +5.8% (upgraded to Hold at Stifel), IMCL +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SINT -18.4%, DT -9.4%, MNST -8.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), PEIX -6.9% (also files to delay 10-k and cites pending waiver from lenders), AGP -5.8%, SOL -5.8%, CHRS -5.7%, WERN -5.4%, CLC -5.2%, BPL -3.2% (also plans to offer Limited Partnership Units), PTR -3.1%, HWAY -3.1%, CHL -2.9%, FSYS -2.5%... Select telecom/equipment related stocks showing weakness following Sony Ericsson (JV b/wn ERIC and SNE) guidance and DT reporting: ERIC -11.2% (sees moderating growth of mobile phone units with related effects on sales and profit in Q108), NOK -7.8%, COMS -7.7%, TI -7.0% (says has no capital hike plan - DJ), STM -5.1%, SI -3.6%, FTE -3.3%, VOD -3.2%... Select financial stocks seeing profit taking following yesterday's gains: MF -9.4%, RBS -6.9%, LEH -1.9%, C -1.1%... Other news: JRCC -6.7% (to sell 3.0 mln shares of common stock), MTG -5.4% (announces plans to sell $350 mln of common shares in a public offering), BZP -3.5% (announces 2 mln share offering of common stock), CCL -2.8% (still checking), RTP -2.8% and BHP -2.2% (still checking), SHPGY -2.0% (pulling back modestly after recent strength following multiple buyout rumors), MCGC -1.9% (announces transferable rights offering)... Analyst downgrades: INAP -15.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), RADN -9.6% (downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital), LAMR -2.2% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), PCLN -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Susquehanna), KFT -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), HD -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan).
  • Madis, vaata reaalajas hindu ... mitte 15 minutit viiteajaga ... Euroopa on praegu juba plussis, CAC näiteks +0,50%
  • Positiivsuse põhjuseks oli eelkõige Fannie Mae'd ja Freddie Mac'i puudutav uudis ehk OFHEO kiitis heaks jätkuvate kinnisvara laenude tagasi ostmise.

    Aga Visa (V) lendu eelturul vaadates üritasin kiiresti ka valuatsioonikordajaid välja arvutada. $75-lise hinna juures on kogu ettevõte väärt ca $72.5 miljardit. Kui nüüd 2007. fiskaalaasta kolmanda kvartali suurt erakorralist kulu mitte arvesse võtta, siis teeniti kasumit $2.23 miljardit. Seega tagasivaatav korrigeeritud P/E hetkel ca 32x. 4. kvartali kasumit kasvatati 100%.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) sai uppgrade Punk Ziegeli käest ning uueks hinnasihiks $200.
  • mul ei näita v midagi peale ostu,müügi äärte - tuleb valida midagi muud kui smart?
  • Jah, eks kauplemise algusega läheb pisut aega ja kasutasin arvutustes lihtsalt indikatiivseid tolle hetke äärehindu,
  • Visa ärimudeli kohta meeldetuletus ... raskematel aegadel rohkem tulu :)

    Unlike credit card lenders, Visa does not carry any consumer debt on its books. The company makes its money from processing fees, which have been steadily rising for years, including the past two U.S. recessions in 1991 and 2001, according to the Associated Press.

    Since the last recession, Visa also has been able to entice consumers to use its credit and debit cards more frequently to pay for staples like groceries, gas and utility bills. Visa estimates about 42% of its transactions fall into this "nondiscretionary" category, up from 27% in 2000. As such, Visa could even benefit from tougher times if more cash-strapped consumers rely on their credit cards to make essential purchases.

    Even if consumers cannot pay back the debt, Visa still makes money, which is an attractive model.
  • The Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 133K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 2250K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 3447K (Bloomberg consensus is at unchanged); distillate inventories had a draw of 2910K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 1500K).

    nafta ja gaas üles taas ...
  • Tänase päeva antikangelane on Merrill Lynch, kelle aktsia 10% miinuspoolel ja seda seoses juttudega võimalikust kapitali kaasamise vajadusest suuruses ca $5 miljardit, kuna on võimalik, et tuleb maha kirjutada varasid $10 miljardi eest.. First Boston tuli mõned minutid tagasi aga Merrilly nime kaitseks välja.

Teemade nimekirja