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Börsipäev 28. märts

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  • Bank Saint Petersburg (BSPB) peaks oma 2007. aasta IFRS majandusaruande esitama aprillis. Analüütikud ootavad kasumiks RUB 2B ($82 m), mis 2006. aasta kasumit ületaks 1.7 korda. Kui keskmiselt oodatakse pankadelt varade kasvatamist 44.4% yoy, siis BSPB puhul prognoositakse 2007. aasta varade kasvuks 77%. Hetke hinna juures kaubeldaks siis 2.1x P/B ja 10.8x P/E.
  • P/E & P/B on trailing või koos 2007 Q4 prognoosiga?
  • Šiaulių panga SAB1L aktsiatega kauplemine on kuni oluliste uudiste avaldamiseni peatatud.
  • Citigroup upgrades Lehman Bros. (LEH 38.71) to Buy from Hold and maintains their $65 tgt, based on valuation, coordinated actions taken by the Fed & Treasury to provide liquidity and believe the co will generate positive EPS and grow book value per share this year. They say LEH has ample liquidity to run its business - with $34 bln in liquidity at the parent co, the ability to get access to over $200 bln in liquidity from the Fed's primary dealer credit facility, and its ability to tap the term auction facility, access to liquidity is a non-issue. They say on an absolute P/B, tangible P/B and relative P/B basis, LEH is trading at some of its lowest levels in more than a decade. 
  • Ja varsti tõstab Lehman Citi reitingut. :)
  • Paistab CCU võtab taas suuna allapoole?
  • February Personal Income 0.5% vs 0.3% consensus; prior 0.3%
    Personal Spending 0.1% vs 0.1% consensus; prior 0.4%
    Core PCE Deflator 3.4% vs 3.5% consensus; prior 3.5%
  • JC Penny (JCP) langetab 1 kvartali prognoose ning ennustab suuremart langus $0.50 peale vs konsensuse $0.75 pealt, eelnev prognoos oli vahemikus $0.75-0.80 aktsia kohta.
  • stocker, päris nii õnneks pole. Lehman hoiab Citi soovitust jätkuvalt "overweight" peal, kuid on viimase poole aasta jooksul langetanud kuus korda hinnasihti. Septembri $61 pealt on tänaseks jõutud $34-ni. Aga kes seda teab, mis tuuled nüüd puhuma hakkavad.
  • Hiina lõpetas kenas plussis, kuna levisid kuulujutud võimalikust abist aktsiaturgudele:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.35%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.64%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.47%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.75%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.21%

    Poola WIG -0.79%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.71%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.74%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +4.95%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.40%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.24%

    Tai Set +0.27%

    India Sensex +2.22%

  • In a Bad Market, Clarity Is Key

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/28/2008 8:44 AM EDT

    Style is knowing who you are, what to say, and not giving a damn.
    -- Gore Vidal


    When the market is acting well, the differences between various styles of investing and trading aren't that great. To some degree they all involve buying a stock and riding it upward. Time frames and entry points will vary, but to some degree all styles involve buying and holding on to stocks for a period of time.

    In a poor market, like we have now, the differences in investing styles become much more stark. At one end of the spectrum are those who will stay heavily invested at all times in hopes that a turn is coming; at the other end are those who go to cash and stay there until they see a change in trend.

    Where many investors get in trouble is that they try to use the same style that works in a bull market in a poor market. They are seduced by the idea that there is always a bull market somewhere, and they pursue trades that just don't have good odds in a bad market. While there are always a few good stocks in even the worst markets, the truth is that the vast majority of stocks move with the overall market trend. You are almost always fighting the odds when you are trying to make upside trades in a downtrending market.

    The most important thing an investor can do in a difficult market is to be very clear about the approach you are going to take. If you have a very short-term time frame then you will have lots of opportunities to make moves as news and events unfold. If you are a longer-term investor, however, I strongly believe the best approach is to simply sit and cash and wait for market conditions to turn.

    Unfortunately, many longer-term investors have a very hard time doing little in a downtrending market. They are itching to buy their favorites that have been trending down, and they worry greatly about not being heavily long at the exact moment that the market bottoms.

    The media greatly contributes to this impatience to jump in and do something with its constant proclamations that the worst is over and that you have to hurry and buy cheap stocks while you can. It is very hard to resist the pressures to put money to work even when the market is acting poorly.

    For quite a while now I've been steadfast in my observation that the market is downtrending and that it is not the time to build longer-term positions. That doesn't mean there isn't good short-term trading, but I'm much more concerned about investors deploying large amounts of capital too early.

    More than anything right now, you need clarity of style. If you are going to play the volatility you can be highly aggressive, but for the average investor who is not watching the market every day and who prefers to hold stocks for periods of weeks or months, cash remains the place to be.

    We have a bit of a bounce going to start the day, but given the swings we have been seeing lately, it is hard to have much faith that we won't see several reverses during the day.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CRTX +21.0%, KOPN +13.6%, FUQI +7.1%, RHT +6.1%, SMA +5.9%, XRTX +5.6%, FINL +5.6%, TIBX +4.9%, CCIX +4.2%, ACN +4.1%, SPEC +1.9%... M&A news: LMRA +15.5% (announces agreement to merge with GigOptix)... Select agriculture names showing strength: MOS +2.2% (announces canpotex potash contracts with Indian customers), AGU +1.8%, MON +1.7% (tgt raised to $145 from $140 at Citigroup), TRA +1.7%, POT +1.7%... Select Chinese names trading higher following strength in overseas trading: LFC +9.4%, SEED +4.3%, CAF +3.2%, ACH +3.0%, CHL +2.1% (to offer high-speed service from April - Bloomberg.com), SNP +1.7%, BIDU +1.2%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength: YZC +5.2%, AAUK +5.1%, RTP +3.5%, LMC +3.4%, GOLD +3.3%, MT +3.2%, BHP +2.8%, AA +2.0%, PAL +1.9%... Other news: TSRA +43.3% (informed that ITC overturns stay order), BMTI +36.9% (addresses FDA communication on Regranex safety review), POM +12.0% (still checking), BRP +3.1% (Oi reaches agreement to buy Brasil Telecom, according to reports - DJ), QCOM +2.3% (Tessera Technologies informed that ITC overturns stay order against MOT, Freescale and QCOM), NOK +1.9% (still checking), BCE +1.7% (BCE Inc takeover deal given green light, with a few conditions-Globe and Mail), URBN +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), C +1.4% (replaces global prime brokerage co-heads - Bloomberg.com), AKS +1.2% (10% owner Harbert Mgmt bought 350K shares at $54.87)... Analyst upgrades: CRUS +6.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), LEH +4.9% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), JASO +3.3% (initiated with Buy at Lazard), FSLR +2.1% (initiated with Buy at Canaccord), X +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: USNA -32.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), OPLK -22.8% (also downgraded to Sell at Piper and downgraded to Hold at Needham), APOL -20.1%, JCP -13.6%, NOBL -11.7%, KBH -4.5%, WBD -4.3%... Select retail names trading lower following JCP weak guidance: KSS -7.4%, M -5.8%, JWN -4.6%, LIZ -4.0%, TGT -2.9%, SHLD -2.4%, BONT -2.2%, ANF -1.7%, WMT -1.0%... Select education-related stocks showing weakness following APOL earnings: STRA -5.9%, COCO -4.6%, ESI -4.1%, CECO -3.7%, DV -3.5%, CPLA -3.4%... Other news: CHB -7.8% (announces the closure of two U.S. manufacturing facilities), SOL -7.0% (pulling back following yesterday 22%+ move), MPG -6.1% (finalizing its review of strategic alternatives; review no longer includes active pursuit of the possibility of sale of the co), RMBS -4.8% (giving back some of this week's surge higher following its favorable court ruling), OPTR -4.8% (files a $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3), BSC -4.7% (Chairman James Cayne discloses sale of 5.6 mln shares at $10.84 on 3/25), TNDM -2.5% (prices 4.5 mln common shares at $18.00 per share), FCN -2.3% (announces the acquisition of Forensic Accounting), CCU -2.0% (files 8-K discussing inability to consummate merger due to failure of the Banks to provide the required financing), DBA -1.3% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: TIF -3.8% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), NILE -3.8% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), BBBY -3.7% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan).
  • Lennar (LEN) murrab plusspoolele kuulujuttude tõttu, mille kohaselt võidakse firma üle võtta hinnaga $28 aktsia kohta. Üldiselt on majadeehitajad täna kauplemas miinuspoolel, sest eelturul avaldatud KB Home'i (KBH) tulemused jäid ootustele alla. Lisan ka lõigu pressiteatest, kus firma kinnitab, et keerulistele tingimustele turul pole lähiajal lõppu näha:

    "Until prices stabilize and consumer confidence returns, we believe inventory levels will remain significantly out of balance with demand. We do not anticipate meaningful improvement in these conditions in the near term, as it is likely to take some time for the market to absorb the current excess housing supply and for consumer confidence to improve."

  • Bloomberg reports two Bear Sterns (BSC) feeder funds that collapsed along with two of its bankrupt hedge funds won permission to liquidate in the Cayman Islands.
  • Kulla- ja naftafutuurid korralikus languses.
  • Yahoo! (YHOO) aktsia on täna terve päeva olnud üllatavalt tugev ja hetk tagasi tõusis uutele päeva tippudele (+3%), kuigi turg käitub nõrgalt. Hetkel ühtegi uudist väljas ei ole ja võib spekuleerida, et ringleb "nädalavahetusel teatatakse Microsofti (MSFT) pakkumise vastuvõtmisest"-stiilis kuulujutt.

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