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GPS and Personal Navigation - TomTom & Garmin

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  • TomTom avaldas täna pikema ülevaate oma turuolukorras 1Q2008 ja kogu 2008.a. väljavaadetest. Aktsia näitab -13%. Garmin on solidaarselt -8%.
    TomTom ülevaatest ei selgu, et midagi oleks täiesti korrast ära. Fundamentaalide poolest tunduvad mõlemad firmad juba atraktiivsed.

    Kuna TomTom-i ülevaade on sisukas, siis toon selle originaalis täies ulatuses ära:

    Apr 08 2008, TomTom updates the market about trading in first quarter and the outlook for the full year 2008

    In the first quarter of 2008 the PND market grew by approximately 40% year over year in Europe and by more than 100% in North America. Our market shares in both North America and Europe continued to be strong. Retailers reduced their inventory levels more strongly than expected, especially in Europe, which restricted sell-in volumes in the quarter.

    We reduced prices in the channel earlier than planned ahead of the introduction of new products in the second quarter.

    Although final results may differ, TomTom expects to have shipped around 2.0 million PNDs during the first quarter of 2008. This is expected to generate revenue of between €260 million and €270 million, lower than in the first quarter of 2007, with an operating margin of a low single digit percentage.

    In the coming months, new products are expected to drive revenue growth both through higher volumes and higher ASPs. We do not expect however that the remaining three quarters will make up for the lower than expected result in the first quarter.

    For the full year, TomTom now expects to achieve revenue of between €1.8 billion and €2.0 billion. We expect to sell between 14 million and 15 million PNDs and to achieve a gross margin and operating margin of close to 40% and 20% respectively. We continue to target a long term financial model of a gross margin of 40% and an operating margin of 20%.

  • TomTom suhtarvud 2007.a. majandustulemuste põhjal:

    Earnings Per Share (EPS) 2,79
    Sales Per Share (SPS) 14,26
    P/E 9,46 Annual report 2007
    P/S 1,85
    P/B 2,38
    Turnover 1 737 133
    Turnover Growth 27,38% (YOY)
    Net Profit 317 242
    Net Profit Growth 42,79% (YOY)

    Aktsia praegu EUR 22,80
  • Põhiline probleem seisneb selles, et seadmete keskmised müügihinnad (ASP) on teinud läbi oodatust oluliselt teravama languse. Kui lisada sellele veel TomTomi ja Garmini võitlus turuosa eest, siis on selge, et langevatest marginaalidest ei ole pääsu:

    In the first quarter, the average selling price fell to 120 euros from 141 euros in the preceding period, De Graaf said. He had estimated a price tag of 135 euros.

    Samas ma usun, et pikaajaliselt on praegustelt tasemetelt tegemist huvitava investeeringuga. Viimase aja arengud väärivad kindlasti rohkem süvenemist ja seetõttu proovin olukorda lähiajal ka pikemalt kommenteerida.
  • Pärast kuuekuulist uurimist on TomTom lõpuks saanud Euroopa Liidu konkurentsiametilt loa Tele Atlase ostuks. TomTomi esindaja sõnul viidakse ülevõtmine läbi juuni alguseks. Samuti võib antud otsus indikeerida seda, et ka Nokia (NOK) saab EL'i konkurentsiametilt loa Tele Atlase peamise konkurendi Navteqi (NVT) ostmiseks.

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