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Börsipäev 5. mai

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  • Tõotab taaskord üks huvitav päev börsil tulla. Microsofti otsus Yahoo ülevõtmise taga ajamine selleks korraks ära lõpetada, on turgudel laineid löömas. Yahoo aktsiate müüginoteering hetkel $22.9 peal väljas ehk -20% reedesest sulgemishinnast. MSFTi ostunoteering $30 peal väljas ehk reedega võrreldes +2.7%. Kas Microsofti samm loobuda Yahoole lisa 10%i maksmisest ütleb meile täna, et valuatsioonid tehnoloogiasektoris on muutumas liiga kalliks?

    Suuremad indeksid on päeva algust hetkel indikeerimas -0.3% kuni -0.4% madalamalt.
  • Midagi negatiivset ka... Endine Föderaalreservi esimees Alan Greenspan näiteks leiab, et majanduskasv võib USAs jääda väga madalale tasemele vähemasti terve selle aasta jooksul. Arvestades, et reedese tööjõuraporti ilmumise järel liikus Wall Streetil ringi kõrvuni naeratusega inimesi ja rääkisid, et 'Time to Cancel Recession?!', siis minu arust peaks see head kainestavat mõju omama ülioptimistidele.

    Artikkel ise siin.
  • AmTech on täna Apple'ile 'osta'-soovituse andnud ning sihiks siis $210.
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.02%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.34%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 N/A (börs suletud)

    Hispaania IBEX -0.12%

    Venemaa MICEX -0.18%

    Poola WIG +1.01%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.22%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.84%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.95%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A (börs suletud)

    Tai Set N/A (börs suletud)

    India Sensex -0.62%

  • Listen to All Arguments
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/5/2008 8:36 AM EDT


    The key word is "flexibility," the ability to adapt constantly. Darwin said it clearly. People thought that he mainly talked about survival of the fittest. What he said was that the species that survive are usually not the smartest or the strongest, but the ones most responsive to change.
    -- Philippe Kahn

    After a big move by the indices off the lows of March and increased optimism about the health of the market, it is particularly important to have a flexible view of where things are headed from here. Staying open-minded and being reactive as events unfold will be the best way to navigate the market at this point.

    As is often the case when the market is at an important crossroads, the viewpoints of the bears and bulls are becoming stronger and more certain. The bulls are now widely proclaiming that the worst is over. "Sure," the bulls say, "there may be some more problems to come, but we have priced them in already and the market is set to steadily improve. Earnings were generally pretty good, the dollar is ready to strengthen, and inflation is likely to modulate. The fears of a recession are overblown, and if we do have one, it is going to be mild. Overall, we have weathered the storm, and since there is still a lot of skepticism and doubt, we are in good shape to climb the 'wall of worry.' We should be looking forward to a steadily improving market from here although there will be some minor hiccups along the way."

    The bears chuckle at such naïveté and say what we are seeing is the typical hopefulness that occurs during every major bear market. "Market players are too fast to believe our problems are over and are too optimistic about a host of matters such as inflation, housing, earnings growth and the overall economy. The positive sentiment, the rush to proclaim that the worst is over and the broad support such a view is receiving is going to quickly deplete the limited buying power that exists. In addition, we have other headwinds, such as the start of the seasonally weak time of the year, technical resistance on the charts and growing inflationary pressures."

    The battle lines are clearly drawn at this point and while you might chose a side, we have to stay open-minded and adapt should future events prove us wrong. I tend to side more with the bears at this point, but that doesn't mean I am going to completely dismiss the bullish arguments. I believe that the market is due for a pullback but have no strong feeling as to how intense it might be. Should that start to develop, I plan to press a bit on the short side, but I want to see more cracks in the action.

    For now, the bulls still have the benefit of the doubt. Although we are extended, we have yet to commit any major technical breaches. The market has been struggling to figure out if it wants to undergo a rotation into a new crop of leading stocks, and that is going to determine where the short-term opportunities will lie in this market.

    The bulls are dominating market sentiment, but whether they have gotten too extreme is impossible to determine. It looks like they are quickly getting there, but we need confirmation of that fact in the price action.

    Adaptation is always the key to success in this market, but at times like this, it is even more important than usual.

    The termination of the potential deal between Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) deal is dominating the news this morning and helping to boost Google (GOOG) . Other than that, the news flow is a bit slow because many overseas exchanges are closed, but the market is reacting negatively to another jump in oil prices and is questioning the strong-dollar rotation that occurred last week.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ALVR +10.2%, STEC +8.3%, CLR +7.2%, MVL +5.8%, GG +2.8%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: FCX +3.1%, AU +2.8%, AUY +2.5%, HMY +2.2%, LMC +1.7%, ABX +1.6%, BHP +1.2%, PCU +1.2% GLD +1.2%... Other news: DSCO +24.1% (provides guidance on FDA Approvable Letter for Surfaxin for RDS; approvable letter may be completed in 6-8 weeks), S +7.5% (Deutsche Telekom may bid for Sprint Nextel - WSJ), GOOG +3.4% (still checking), GA +3.3% (announces it reaches peak concurrent users of over 344,000), MSFT +2.6% (withdraws proposal to acquire Yahoo; also hearing resumed with Buy at tier 1 firm), TWX +2.1% (MSFT withdraws proposal to acquire Yahoo), VOLC +2.0% (announces participation in SATURN clinical trial sponsored by AstraZeneca), DOV +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), QI +1.4% (co and Centrosolar Group AG sign a contract to jointly build, equip and operate a solar cell manufacturing plant)... Analyst upgrades: MGI +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at Calyon), TSFG +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Fox-Pitt), EVVV +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR), NWY +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AIN -5.1%, HAIN -2.5%... Other news: YHOO -23.6% (MSFT withdraws proposal to acquire Yahoo; also multiple analyst downgrades), ACAS -6.3% (WSJ article says a new accounting rule governing the use of market values for financial assets could force ACAS to bring its valuations down; also downgraded to Reduce at UBS), WM -2.1% (filed S-3 ASR for resale of up to ~605.44 mln shares of common stock and up to ~36.6k shares of Series S Contingent Convertible Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock), CSCO -1.2% (checking for any news; co reports earnings tomorrow afternoon)... Analyst downgrades: CFC -9.7% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), IR -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), ARTC -2.4% (downgraded to Negative at Susquehanna), PSPT -2.3% (downgraded to Mkt Outperform at JMP), OB -1.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), SWKS -1.8% (downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkPanmure).
  • American Intl (AIG) $12.7 bln of CDS losses possible in 1Q08; losses could reverse in 2Q08- Frideman Billingsi sõnul.
  • Citigroup on täna kommenteerimas Suntechi (STP), kes on jätkuvalt analüüsimaja top pick päikesepaneelide tootjate turult. Nimelt usub Citi, et suure tõenäosusega hakkavad aasta teises pooles toorainena kasutatava polüräni hinnad spot turul langema, sest Hispaania on vähendamas toetusi päikeseenergia kasutamisele ja turule lisandub oluliselt tootmisvõimsust D.C. Chemicali poolt. Selline trend oleks hea uudis Suntechile, kellel on viimasel ajal olnud probleeme tooraine kindlustamisega.
  • Toornafta futuurid kauplevad jällegi ligi +3%, $119.76 barrel tasemel.
  • Kes oskab sigma (SIGM) tänast liikumist kommenteerida?
    Uudiseid nagu pole.
  • Tehnoloogiasektor veab järjekordselt turgu ning näitab üles suhtelist tugevust, kus goog, aapl, msft, rimm, orcl, bidu tõusus. Ka yhoo on jõudnud juba $24.53 tasemele, vähendades eelturu kaotusi.
  • Toornafta futuurid püsivad üle $120 barreli eest, olles +3.40% tõusus, viies uue rekordtaseme $120.36 peale.
  • Hetkel siis tehnoloogiasektor on andnud oma rolli üle finantssektorile, kes hoiab turgudel suuremat kukkumist tagasi ning üritab turge ülespoole vedada.
  • SIGMa Designe tänane paisumine ilma asjakohase uudiseta annab aimu stardipakule kogunenud kauplejate ergust närvikavast.
    Loodan loperdamisele jätku.

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