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Börsipäev 14.mai - RTSi uus rekord

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  • Päeva alustuseks paneks siia ühe huvitava artikli lingi, mida saab lugeda siit. Kas pullide riskid on õigustatud?
  • Tänast päeva kujundamas kindlasti makroandmed ja kell 17.00 Freddie Mac-i (FRE) 1 kvartali tulemused, mis peale eilset finantsi nõrkust võib kujundada tugevalt turu suunda. Turgude suunale avaldavad kindlasti mõju ka Fed-i liikmete edasised sõnavõtud, kust ei tohiks tulla enam üllatusi, kuna kõike on juba kuuldud.
  • Sõber prantslane jälle peavoolu meediaga opositsioonis...

    A few weeks ago, newspapers, magazines and other publications competed with each other to give the most dire and depressing
    view on the US economy. In short, we were supposed to be heading towards a recession as bad as the 1930s depression, if not
    worse…. However, recent data, whether it be on employment, inventories, corporate profits or domestic consumption have all
    come out surprisingly strong (yesterday, retail sales rose by a stronger-than-expected +0.5% MoM and business sales gained
    +1.0% MoM). In fact, so far this month, in our overview of major economic data, US numbers have surprised on the upside ten
    times, versus three disappointments . While we are most definitely in a mid-cycle slowdown, we may yet avoid a
    recession. In fact, given the trade numbers that came out on Friday of last week, we would not be surprised to see the 1Q GDP
    growth get an upwards revision. In addition, the many simulative measures by both the Fed and the Treasury are only now
    starting to impact the economy.
  • Tund aega enne turgu siis aprillikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi näitajad. Ootused CPI-le on +0.3% ning selle tuumikosale (energia ja toit välja võetud) +0.2%. Ausalt öeldes arvestades viimase aja kõiki inflatsioonilisi tegureid (kaasa arvatud eilsete Fedi liikmete väga murelikud sõnavõtud inflatsiooni teemal), ei usu ma mitte, et täna CPI numbrid sellistena ka välja tulevad... Kaldun arvama, et konsensus on liialt konservatiivne (vähemasti CPI numbri osas tervikuna). Aga eks enne turgu oleme targemad.
  • Venemaa konglomeraat Sistema avaldas täna oma neljanda kvartali GAAP tulemused. Kuna Sistema põhilised tuluallikad kauplevad ka eraldi börsil, siis oli investorite põhirõhk suunatud noteerimata varade tulemustele. Selles osas suudeti ootusi ületada, EBITDA ületas ootus 4,5%. Aktsia kaupleb ligi 5% plussis.
  • Sony lööb ootusi, prognoosib heade aegade jätkumist. Flat panel televiisorid müüvad jätkuvalt hästi.

    SNE Sony beats by $0.13, beats on revs; forecast a bigger-than-expected profit for fiscal 2009 (46.06 )
    Reports Q4 (Mar) earnings of $0.28 per share, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 10.3% year/year to $19.53 bln vs the $19.22 bln consensus. Reuters reported that Sony Corporation forecast a bigger-than-expected profit for fiscal 2009 and expects operating profit to grow 20% to JPY450 billion and sees revenues rising 1% to JPY9 trillion. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report operating profit of JPY431 billion and revenue of JPY9.15 trillion for the same period. The Company cited the boost in sales of digital cameras and flat TVs, as the primary reason for the profit outlook.
  • Petrochina (PTR) on täna hommikul saanud 1. astme analüüsimajalt müügisoovituse.
  • Mhmm... numbrid ütlevad siis, et inflatsiooninäidud kardetust väiksemad.

    April Core CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +0.2%
    April CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% consensus, prior +0.3%
    April CPI y/y +3.9% vs +4.0% consensus, prior +4.0%
  • Saksamaa DAX +0.14

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.66

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.24%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.88%

    Venemaa MICEX +1.34%

    Poola WIG +0.66%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.18%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.08%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.73%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.38%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.50%

    Tai Set +1.24%

    India Sensex +1.35%

  • React, Don't Predict

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/14/2008 7:59 AM EDT

    As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.
    -- Andrew Carnegie

    The bulls tell us that the worst is over, the recession (if we have one) will be mild, the dollar will strengthen, commodity prices will moderate and inflationary pressures will cool. The bears tell us there is another shoe to drop, we haven't seen the end of the woes in the banking system, the housing market has more downside and market players are way too sanguine about the problems we face.

    So who is right? We all have our opinions, and we believe that our insight into what lies ahead is not only reasonable but likely. Unfortunately, that doesn't make for a very good investing approach.

    Profitable investing is more about managing risk than it is about making predictions about the economy. While we may want to formulate theories on how events will unfold, we must never take our eye off the action in front of us. There is no doubt that no matter what happens in the market, the bulls will still be bullish and the bears still will still be bearish. There is never a shortage of great arguments for both sides of the market.

    So what we do is watch the action. It doesn't much matter what the pundits are saying if stocks are trending in the opposite direction and ignoring their wisdom. The price action will always be far more informative and insightful than the views of any pundit or market expert. We need to stay focused on that and not be overly influenced by the siren call of intellectual arguments.

    Right now, the uptrend is still intact. There are some cracks appearing and things are a bit extended, but the market is not yet rolling over. Intellectually I believe quite strongly that there is some fairly significant downside coming soon, but I have to wait until there is price action to back up my thinking. If I simply act on my theories at this point, I will be making a very risky more. I need to manage my risk by reacting to the market rather than trying to predict it.

    It is very tricky out there right now with oil prices and the dollar whipping us and lots of debate over the degree to which we will suffer a recession and whether or not the worst is over. I am a skeptic, but I'm sticking with the long-side plays until I have some solid proof that I shouldn't.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CAAS +20.4%, SOL +13.7%, M +9.3%, DSX +8.6%, CRME +7.1%, FSIN +7.1%, FRE +6.0%, BUF +5.6%, CVLT +5.4% (also upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James), FLML +5.1%, JOBS +5.0%, HMIN +4.3%, SNE +3.8%, DRL +2.5%, DHT +2.2%, ING +1.8%, MT +1.2%... Select solar stocks showing continued strength following strong earnings from SOL: SOLF +3.7%, AKNS +3.6%, JASO +1.9%, STP +1.6%, LDK +1.5%, FSLR +1.3%, SPWR +1.1%... Other news: XRIT +10.0% (announces Chief Financial Officer departure, appointment of interim replacement), UA +4.8% (will replace IMB in the S&P MidCap 400 after the close of trading on May 15), NFP +3.2% (will replace LIFC in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on May 16, 2008), FNM +2.8% (up in sympathy with FRE), BHP +1.9% (rises overseas on talk Chinalco may seek stake - Bloomberg.com), OI +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CCU +1.0% (announces settlement of litigation and amended merger agreement with private equity group co-sponsored by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital Partners)... Analyst upgrades: RFMD +5.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill), NTT +5.0% (upgraded to Buy at UBS - Bloomberg), ESLR +4.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), JAVA +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), SPLS +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ASEI -11.9%, APP -11.3%, WFMI -9.4%, MELI -9.1%, HQS -7.5%, DE -6.5%, JBX -5.5%, WCG -5.1%, TTIL -5.0%, GIVN -4.4%, MBRK -2.5%, ERTS -1.9%... Other news: IMB -6.5% (continued weakness from yesterday's 20%+ decline), CHDX -5.0% (confirms $100 mln shelf registration; currently believes hospital division will achieve an approximately 30% increase over last fiscal year's revenues), CAT -1.7% (down in sympathy with DE), NLY -1.4% (prices a 60 mln share common stock offering at $16.15/share), EXR -1.3% (announces pricing of public offering of Common Stock of 13 mln shares)... Analyst downgrades: ANAD -2.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), IPI -2.2% (initiated with Sell at Soleil), ARBA -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital), ZMH -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Robert W. Baird), CCJ -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS).
  • RTS lõpetas +2.6% kõrgemal 2406 punkti tasemel, mis tähistab indeksi uut rekordit.
    MICEX +4.5%.
  • Mis USA turgudesse puutub, siis lühema ajahorisondi mõistes on minu arvates täna üks olulisemaid kauplemispäevi. Kas tänast tugevust suudetakse leebe inflatsioonidata (vähemasti need numbrid, mida siis ametlikult välja lastakse) peale lõpuni hoida või mitte. See annab vihjeid selle kohta, kummale poole kaalukauss vajub - kas närviline turust eemal olev raha jookseb aktsiaturgudele tagasi või siis päris korralike kasumite otsas istuvad (samuti närvilised) pullid on areenilt mõneks ajaks tagasi tõmbamas.
  • Stefan, sa panid vist kunagi lingi mingile huvitavale veebilehele kus oli näidatud Eesti energiatarbimine. Liikumine mööda kaableid välja ja sisse jne. Äkki saaksid uuesti anda.
  • Äkki see? http://www.pohivork.ee/index.php?id=503
  • Ainus, millest raha välja voolab on commodity, vähesel määral ka võlakirjad. Kuhu tal ikka minna on?
  • react, don't predict
    päeva, nädala ja viimase kuu point
  • näpp on jätkuvalt päästikul, risk-reversal
  • Indeksid hakkavad siiski kergelt järele andma. Oleks üsna üllatav kui järgneva kahe päeva jooksul pull-back nägemata jääks. Nii umbes 1%-1,5% SPX, NDX.
    Samas tuleb arvestada sellege, et homme on tulemas rida olulisi makro-näitajaid.
  • Apple Inc (AAPL) Intel confirms Atom-based larger iPhone (mini-tablet)?

    MacRumors reports according to ZDNet.de, INTC Manager Hannes Schwaderer confirmed that AAPL would be using the Intel Atom processor in a future version of the iPhone. The new model will reportedly be a larger model with a 720x480 pixel display, correlating with circulating rumors about a mini-tablet device rumored to be coming from Apple. He goes on to say that an upgraded version of the current form factor of iPhone would also exist as a 3G-model. While Schwaderer calls the larger device a "version of the iPhone", it seems clear that it refers to the rumored mini-tablet device. Some rumors have suggested that it would be introduced at WWDC.
  • Kiirmüük käima... Google on $10 alla tulnud ja hetkel juba miinuses. Indeksitel negatiivse territooriumini veel ruumi. Aga hirm on siiski keerlemas turgude kohal.
  • Russel 2000 jõudis neg poolele, see on korralik tulek.

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