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Börsipäev 20.mai

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  • Täna avaldavad turule kindlasti mõju enne turge tulemused avaldavad jaemüüjad Home Depot (HD), Target Corporation (TGT), Stapels Inc. (SPLS) ja ei tasu unustada ka peale turge tulemustega tulevat Hewlett-Packard-it (HPQ). Jaemüüjate ootused on juba suhteliselt kõrgele aetud, seega väga oluline kuidas turg tulemustele reageerib. Eile viimastel kauplemistundidel alanud tugev müügisurve võib saada lisa ka täna, kui makronäitajad peaksid jääma konsensuse ootustele märgatavalt alla. 15.30 avaldatav tootjahinna indeks on kindlasti olulisim faktor tänaseks kauplemispäevaks, kuna annab aimu inflatsioonimäära edasise liikumise kohta. Kindlasti avaldab mõju ka tänasele kauplemispäevale eilne JP Morgani tehnoloogiaettevõtete konverents, kust sai alguse eilne kasumivõtt, seega tuleks silm peal hoida "blue chippide" liikumistel.

    Hetkel indeksfutuurid kauplemas üpris korralikus -0.4% languses, kuid päev veel noor.
  • Citigroup (C) hedge-fund loss weighs on three banks

    The Wall Street Journal reports the downward spiral of a Citigroup (C) hedge fund has caused steep losses for at least three large U.S. banks that hoped it would rev up returns on a controversial type of employee life insurance. Besides triggering a lawsuit against an insurer and brokerage firm that arranged the hedge-fund investment for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), the losses may pressure Citigroup to give the banks some of their money back, as it has agreed to do for individual investors. Such a bailout would be costly, because the banks sank more than $1.6 bln into the hedge fund, according to the lawsuit and people familiar with the matter. The problems stem from Citigroup's Falcon Strategies hedge fund, a fixed-income vehicle whose value has plunged more than 75%. Wachovia (WB) was the most heavily exposed, with more than $1 bln invested, people familiar with the situation say. Fifth Third sank $612 million into Falcon, according to the lawsuit the regional bank filed last month in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio. The market's turbulence has hurt BOLI results at other banks, too, from Evans Bancorp in Hamburg, N.Y., to regional bank BB&T (BBT).

  • Home Depot (HD) lõi ootusi $0.04:

    Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.37; revenues fell 3.4% year/year to $17.91 bln vs the $17.61 bln consensus.

    Futuurid tegid jõnksu ülespoole, kuid hetkel juba tagasi vajutud endistele tasemetele.
  • Soros kuulutab, et kuigi krediidikriisi tippfaas võib möödas olla, siis sellele järgnev reegltie karmistamine ja püksirihma pingutamine viib tema arvates USA majanduslangusesse, mida ei ole võimalik vältida ning et tõenäoliselt langeb majanduslanguse ohvriks ka Suurbritannia, kus on probleemiks ka kinnisvaraturg.
  • April PPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% consensus, prior +1.1%
    Core PPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% consensus.
  • Symantec (SYMC) hinnasihti tõsteti Citigroupi poolt $20 pealt $24 peale.
  • Sistema (AFKC) põhiline tuluallikas ja Venemaa suurim telekom MTS teatas täna oma 1Q 08 tulemused.

    Tulud tõusid eelmise aastaga võrreldes 37% (1.6% üle ootuste), EBITDA tõusis 30% $1.17 miljardini ning marginaalid vastasid prognoosidele. Kasum ulatus $610 miljonini, mis on 36% eelmisest aastast enam ja 16% üle analüütikute ootuste.

    Venemaa turul püsis kvartalibaasil keskmine tulu kasutaja kohta sama, kuid kõneminutid kasutaja kohta tõusid esimeses kvartalis 193-ni võrrelduna eelmise kvartali 187-ga.

    Lisaks teatas MTS eile dividendide suurendamisest: välja makstakse 60% eelmise aasta kasumist ning dividendimäär ulatub 3.6%-ni.

    Kuigi meie soovitame osta Sistemat, siis üle 70% Sistema tuludest teenitakse läbi telekomisektori, enamus sellest MTSi kaudu. Seega julgeks MTSi soovitada ka eraldi ning tänased tulemused ainult kinnitavad ettevõtte õigel kursil liikumist.
  • Tõepoolest, täitsa kenad numbrid ja igati toredad ettevõtted mõlemad.
  • Saksamaa DAX -1.31%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.51%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.90%

    Hispaania IBEX -1.61%

    Venemaa MICEX -1.75%

    Poola WIG -0.98%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.77%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.23%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.49%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.52%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.39%

    Tai Set +0.45%

    India Sensex -1.17%

  • Bulls Have Control, but Watch for Leaks

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/20/2008 8:52 AM

    The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.
    -- Alan W. Watts


    The market rally that started in March accelerated and became downright frothy over the last few days. That led to an ugly intraday reversal yesterday in which many of the leading momentum stocks went from multipoint gains to losses.

    The question now is whether that reversal signals the start of a more intense pullback or whether it's just a hiccup in the "the worst is over" rally.

    The macroeconomic arguments remain the same. The bulls believe that we have fully discounted and priced in our economic problems, while the bears are saying, "Yeah, right. If you believe that, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you."

    There is no question there has been a resurgence in optimism in recent weeks even as oil prices hit record highs and financial stocks continue to struggle. Technology stocks have started to act better, and the cyclical sectors that have been hot all year, like oil and steel, have continued to run.

    Our job at this point is to simply assess the action and try to discern what themes are emerging. Many have been anticipating a weaker dollar, which would likely cause some rotation out of groups like energy and mining and into some new leadership. This hasn't developed yet, but it will certainly cause some major shifts in the market action.

    The biggest potential influence on the market at this point is oil. The market has held up well as oil has soared, but many now think the market will soar even more if oil retreats, and there is no shortage of folks looking for an oil pullback. I question whether there is any strong inverse correlation between oil prices and the stock market. In fact, the market may actually be directly correlated with it, and if oil pulls back, I don't think we'll see a continued surge like many are hoping.

    The recent intermediate uptrend is still intact, and as I discussed yesterday, the likelihood is that some underinvested bulls will give us some dip-buying support in the short term. That group of buyers isn't going to go away until buying dips fails to yield results. Once they are discouraged, the market will be vulnerable to more of a downtrend.

    While the short-term trading should remain positive, I am looking for signs that a deeper pullback is developing. It is the bulls' game to lose at this point, but shifts in oil and/or the dollar will hasten a market shift.

    Producer price index numbers are out and above expectations, which may stir up some concerns about inflation. We have some tricky trading in front of us, so strap on your trading goggles and helmet and get ready to go to work.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NCTY +7.0%, MF +3.5%, ESLT +3.5%, MDT +3.3%... M&A news: JAZ 76.5% (to be acquired by Tower Semiconductor)... Select solar stocks showing modest strength: CSIQ +2.7%, AKNS +2.7%, SOLF +2.1%, ESLR +1.6%, FSLR +1.2%... Other news: ENA +42.5% (the co and IC Bus execute long term agreement; valued in excess of $120 mln), PEIX +7.6% (continued strength following yesterday's 40%+surge higher), SATC +7.5% (receives 10 MW order for a photovoltaic installation in Spain), PRGN +6.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NFLX +5.3% (teams with Roku on player that streams movies directly to the tv; also upgraded to Overweight at Lehman) TNB +4.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AMKR +2.8% (still checking), HALO +2.4% (presents pre-clinical studies on dermal remodeling with HTI-501, a lysosomal proteinase), SBLK +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AZN +1.6% (Seroquel Court hearing brought forward to May 20 - DJ), AMGN +1.6% (announces denosumab osteoporosis study meets primary and all secondary bone mineral density endpoints in Alendronate transition study), GIVN +1.0% (study confirms PillCam COLON's potential as a complement to colonoscopy to increase colo-rectal screenings)... Analyst upgrades: EXC +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse and upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), FCL +1.3% (upgraded to Add at Calyon), NVLS +1.1% (added to US 1 Portfolio List at Merrill), PDS +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CIMT -16.1% (very light volume), CNTF -14.5%, SMOD -14.5% (very light volume after trading resumed), CSUN -9.0%, GRRF -6.5%, TMA -4.3% (also plans to announce Q1 earnings by June 2, 2008), AVAN -4.2%, HD -3.0%, ITY -2.9%... Select mining stocks showing weakness following Morgan Stanley comments that miners face a 10-20% short-term correction: BBL -4.2%, AAUK -3.3%, RTP -3.2%, BHP -3.1%, RIO -2.1%... Select China names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: PTR -3.2%, SNP -2.8%, HOKU -2.2%, CHL -2.2% (reported slower subscriber growth last month), RCH -1.3%, CEO -1.0%... Other news: SWHC -7.6% (announces public offering of 6,250,000 shares for approx $31.9 mln net proceeds), CCL -2.3% (still checking), WRE -1.8% (announces public offering of 2.3 mln common shares), NUE -1.6% (commences a 25 mln share common stock offering), UDRL -1.5% (files for 5 mln share common stock offering and for resale of up to ~10.7 mln shares common stock by selling stockholders)... Analyst downgrades: COCO -6.4% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), CECO -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), SEE -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), ACGY -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), EMC -2.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), WGOV -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), SYMC -1.1% (removed from Top Picks List at FBR).
  • Jätkuvalt on murelapseks energia kõrge hind. Nafta on täna ka juba üle $129 käinud.

    Ja nüüd küsimus laiale ringile: Millise bensiiniliitri hinna juures hakkaksid inimesed linnades Eestis autoga tööl käimise asemel eelistama kas ühistransporti, jalgrattaid, rollereid või lihtsalt jala käimist?
  • Ma usun, et siinkohal on tegemist pigem mitte eelistuse, vaid sellega, millal Eesti rahva eelarve lõhki läheb. Autoga sõitmine on mugavus, mis on kohe päris rämedalt sisse juurdunud, ja seni, kuni maksta jakstakse, neelatakse alla kas või 50EEK/l.

    /me muidugi omakeskis mõtleb, et see teeks minu auto puhul 5,7 krooni kilomeeter, päris kallis lõbu..
  • Kas OC (Owens corning) puudub kaubeldavate stockide listist?
  • Kahjuks oli vana tickeriga nimekirjas, ticker muudetud OC-ks ja lisatud uuesti kaubeldavate aktsiate nimekirja.
  • Turg teeb uusi põhju - optimism saanud väikese tagasilöögi. Dip-buyerid on kindlasti lähedal luuramas, kuid positiivseid vaateid aktsiaturu osas soovitaks küll mõneks ajaks vaka all nüüd hoida. Seda, kas tegu on/oli vaid nõrkade käte väljumisega, näitaks alles see, kui suudetaks eilsete tippude juurde naasta.

Teemade nimekirja